I had finished my EOD 4.2.2012 post with following words:
Q
And the thresholds shown in following chart would confirm whether the Corrective is over or not. Usually this confirmation comes at the end of pre-open session itself. I have taken a long position towards the close primarily because overall trend remains upwards and nowadays intra-day positions donot generate gains as gap-ups & gap-downs have become order of the day. In case of a gap-down,longs can always be added at proper points---
.png)
Let me elaborate it further:
If we open above 5336.1,following counts would become valid:
.png)
And if we get a tick below 5278,then following Count shall become applicable:
.png)
So my trade-set up would vary accordingly.
9.08 AM: How have we opened?
End of pre-open session shows 5282.5
lets see if we test 5278---?
9.16 AM
5278 gone--
.png)
so above Count in play:
10 .00 AM Update:
.png)
where this A is likely to end? Why hazard a guess. One thing is for sure--- a tick above today's high would confirm that B has started and this B would test 5336( extended 5th of A would be fully retraced).Then one can paly long for 50 odd points or wait for 5336 zone to short again for gain of 100 off points---
10.10 AM
We can attempt to find 5 subwaves of extended 5th of A in following manner:
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
Q
And the thresholds shown in following chart would confirm whether the Corrective is over or not. Usually this confirmation comes at the end of pre-open session itself. I have taken a long position towards the close primarily because overall trend remains upwards and nowadays intra-day positions donot generate gains as gap-ups & gap-downs have become order of the day. In case of a gap-down,longs can always be added at proper points---
.png)
Let me elaborate it further:
If we open above 5336.1,following counts would become valid:
However if we open below 5314 , following Probabilities would come to the fore:
.png)
And if we get a tick below 5278,then following Count shall become applicable:
.png)
So my trade-set up would vary accordingly.
9.08 AM: How have we opened?
End of pre-open session shows 5282.5
lets see if we test 5278---?
9.16 AM
5278 gone--
.png)
10 .00 AM Update:
.png)
where this A is likely to end? Why hazard a guess. One thing is for sure--- a tick above today's high would confirm that B has started and this B would test 5336( extended 5th of A would be fully retraced).Then one can paly long for 50 odd points or wait for 5336 zone to short again for gain of 100 off points---
10.10 AM
We can attempt to find 5 subwaves of extended 5th of A in following manner:
.png)
12.00 N
A tick above 5260 would be my first attempt to go long--- that a bottom for A at day's low--- which would become my SL for longs:
.png)
1.52 PM
As the much awaited tick above 5260 has not taken place,bottom for A still not found.
2.22 PM
.png)
Longs to have a target of 5336 and SL 5241
3.13 PM
Extended 5th of A still in play.
.png)
Has proved very deceptive.
3.25 PM
SL getting hit is not a good feeling but part of trading.
Now the point to go long is above 5267.5.
EOD
5 subwaves of 5th wave of A can be counted as follows:
.png)
So tomorrow ,we may see a gap-up.But I would advise going long only above 5267.5.
Raghu
wah guruji very good analysis
ReplyDeleteThank You Sir ,for helping us to use preopen sessions too... Really your analysis is simple superb...
ReplyDeleteDear Raghu in the process of being biased on the upmove haven't u missed capitalizing on the the huge downside of 100 points. In any case thanks a lot for ur elaborate setups. It does help.
ReplyDeleteWith the benefit of hindsight,yes---I missed.But not 100 points as 50 odd points were covered in gap-down. And I know it is not for the last time that it has happened.
DeleteCongrats for your 100 points gain--- :D