Nifty EOD 30-8-2011

As usual,let me start from yesterday's quote:

Q

So SW4 began and what a beginning it was.

Now this SW4 has to be a 3 wave form ABC. Are we able to see a 3 wave form in the current run-up from 4720-4935? At least I am not. Then?

I believe we have chalked out A of SW4. How to be sure whether this A is over?Particularly now that even a 5 wave fractal for this A is also not quite identifiable.

All I can offer as an answer is that whenever A is a fast and furious retracement to an Extension, it is like this only and the end of A has to be more of a guesswork with total retracement as ABC being the only guide.

Now ,since SW2 retraced 85% of SW1--this SW4 is bound to be shallow , doing max 38.2% and since SW2 was a zig-zag,probability of SW4 being a Flat is very high. So the B that ensues downwards is more likely to be a deep one.

UnQ

Obviously the presumption that A is over at 4935 was wrong.But there was very little clue as the fractals were absent. May be I should take the absence of fractals as great momentum-indicator and be more cautious in predicting end of the Motive . Fractals as a 5 subwave form for A are still absent but we have retraced 4720-4998=278 as a single wave(without having valid fractals). As I am treating this upmove as retracement for downmove 5702-4720=982 ,thereby retracing 28.4%.And as I still believe that a maximum of 38.2% is going to be retraced,can we believe that A is over now? Very difficult[particularly in light of brickbats that have been received recently ;-) ]

Thus let me mention that likely target of this retracement is 5095 (38.2%)but the likely form of this retracement (as ABC subwaves) is still not clear.Whether it comes out to be a zig-zag,a flat or a DZZ is still not clear to me.May be another day's of move can bring about more clarity. Till then what is there to write.Probabilities? A good number of these can be mentioned but I am not doing it as nothing is coming out convincingly as "preferred count". So lets wait for the pattern to become clearer---

Raghu

Nifty EOD 29.8.2011

Starting from previous post:

Q

Wave C from 5944 downwards--5 wave form--

W1=5944-5329=615

W2=5329-5740=411

W3= 5740-4720=1020(165% of W1)

SW1=5740-5497=243

SW2=5497-5702=205(85%)

SW3=5702-4720*=982(404% ) and capable of doing 4670(i.e. 425% of SW1)

Retracements,if they start now,should be treated as SW4 and minimum target should be 23.6% of SW3=231=4951.

UnQ

So SW4 began and what a beginning it was.

Now this SW4 has to be a 3 wave form ABC. Are we able to see a 3 wave form in the current run-up from 4720-4935? At least I am not. Then?

I believe we have chalked out A of SW4. How to be sure whether this A is over?Particularly now that even a 5 wave fractal for this A is also not quite identifiable.

All I can offer as an answer is that whenever A is a fast and furious retracement to an Extension, it is like this only and the end of A has to be more of a guesswork with total retracement as ABC being the only guide.

Now ,since SW2 retraced 85% of SW1--this SW4 is bound to be shallow , doing max 38.2% and since SW2 was a zig-zag,probability of SW4 being a Flat is very high. So the B that ensues downwards is more likely to be a deep one.

My "preferred count" believes that A is over and tomorrow we may test 4800 again(61.8% retracement of A=4720-4935=215)-- as B of SW4-- and remember,this B can do even 138.2% of A i.e. go below 4720 also.

So do not be in a hurry to go long again. Remember this B will do a 3 wave form. I am loaded with 4900PEs and would start unloading below 4825 (i.e. 50% retracement of A) and hope by then the wave-form will give clear indication of the destination for B.

Best of luck.

Raghu

Nifty EOD 26.8.2011

While it was known that the downmove from 4966 will take us below 4797 and W3 of which the current downmove is a sub-sub wave has a logical target of 1.618*W1=4745(please refer previous posts for details),the failure to identify the correct form for the last leg of this downmove,from 4896 downwards,led to the intra-day trade for today being fruit-less.Holding on longs as I believe we have fulfilled all the basic requirements for completion of SW3 of W3 and its end would be confirmed by a tick above 4793.

Now the wave form can be seen as:

Wave C from 5944 downwards--5 wave form--

W1=5944-5329=615

W2=5329-5740=411

W3= 5740-4720=1020(165% of W1)

SW1=5740-5497=243

SW2=5497-5702=205(85%)

SW3=5702-4797=905(372% of SW1)

SW4=4797-4966=169(18.6%)

SW5=4966-4720=246

4966-4896=70
4896-4931=35
4931-4839=92
4839-4896=57
4896-4720=176

An obvious lacuna is SW4 being only 18.6% of SW3(minimum should be 23.6%).An alternative that was in my mind was to treat this move from 4797-4966=169 as SW4(a) with SW4(b) going down,being capable of doing 1.382*SW4(a)=234=4732(4966-234).But even that was violated.

Then the only remaining alternative is to see SW3 continuing and having done 5705-4720*=985 (thus doing 405% of SW1-- still capable of doing another 50 points as maximum permissible is 425%).So in our endeavour to adopt the best alternative we should go for the following count:

Wave C from 5944 downwards--5 wave form--

W1=5944-5329=615

W2=5329-5740=411

W3= 5740-4720=1020(165% of W1)

SW1=5740-5497=243

SW2=5497-5702=205(85%)

SW3=5702-4720*=982(404% ) and capable of doing 4670(i.e. 425% of SW1)

Retracements,if they start now,should be treated as SW4 and minimum target should be 23.6% of SW3=231=4951.

Special thanks to Shriramoka for his interactions,privately and on various forums.

As always,inputs/suggestions are welcome.

Raghu

Nifty EOD 25.8.2011

Let me start from yesterday's conclusion:

Q

(v)=4966---downwards in progress as 5 wave

and the most logical target is below 4797.Discernible waves so far are

4966-4896=70

4896-4931=35

4931-4875* is in play and should take us to 4815-4820 levels.

All shorts now should have a Stop Loss at 4932 and target -1 at 4820.

UnQ

We did reach very close to our target-1 ,and that meant the day was quite fruitful,but now of utmost importance is HOW WE REACHED HERE as it is this wave-form that is going to guide us for tomorrow's trade.

And it took a great deal of time & effort to give an acceptable form to this journey from 4966 to 4826.

And I hope it is going to make our Friday one of the most memorable days (as far as fruitfulness,tradewise, is concerned).

Be ready to see first 4900+ and then 4800(-) now in a single day.

That is what I foresee.

This downmove, being called (v) of SW5 of W3 of C ,looks like an Ending Diagonal to me where all the 5 subwaves are going to be 3*3*3*3*3. Currently we have finished three subwaves and 4th is in play:

sw1=4966-4900=66

a=4966-4926=40

b=4926-4962 =36

c=4962-4900=62

sw2=4900-4931=31 as a DZZ wherein

W=4900-4926

X=4926-4896.55

Y=4896.55-4931

sw3=4931-4839=92

a=4931-4875=56

b=4875-4915=40

c=4915-4839=76

sw4 in progress as an extended flat wherein

a=4839-4896=57

b=4896-4826=70(123%)

c=4826-4855* and likely to go above 4896 ,max being 1.618*57=92=4918

And then sw5 coming down by more than 92 points.

Best of luck for your trades.

Raghu

Nifty EOD 24.8.2011

Let me start from yesterday's conclusion:

Q

Conclusion: In view of the above,I believe we are now in (v) of W3 which is likely to travel down by a length approx. equal to (i)=143 (pl have a look at my previous posts to see details of W3).It is more likely now that we may go below 4797 to complete this (v) of W3.

So I advise for today go short with SL at 4967 for targets below 4797.

UnQ

It worked out perfectly.

To place the counts in correct perspective again,lets revisit them:

Wave C from 5944 downwards--5 wave form

W1=5944-5329=615

W2=5329-5740=411

W3= in progress ---- target 1.618*W1=995=5740-995=4745 and has so far been:

SW1=5740-5497

SW2=5497-5702

SW3=5702-4946

SW4=4946-5194

SW5=5194 downwards in progress

(i)=5194-5053=143

(ii)=5053-5132=79(55%)

(iii)=5132-4797=335(235%)

(iv)=4797-4966=169(50% of (iii)

(v)=4966---downwards in progress as 5 wave

and the most logical target is below 4797.Discernible waves so far are

4966-4896=70

4896-4931=35

4931-4875* is in play and should take us to 4815-4820 levels.

All shorts now should have a Stop Loss at 4932 and target -1 at 4820.

Best of luck.

Raghu

Nifty EOD 23.8.2011

Continuing from my previous post

Q

Thus ,currently we have two probabilities:

Either the current upmove is W4 (retracement of W3=5740-4797=943);

Or it is (iv) of W3 (retracement of (iii)=5132-4797=335)

UnQ

Even the pattern of Nifty on 23.8.2011 has not categorically given the answer---may be on 24.8.2011 we shall get the answer.

Yesterday there was a hint at Nifty doing a 5 wave form from 4797 upwards and I gave a call to go long with Stop Loss at 4855. Although the call worked out perfectly,the ensuing 5th wave did not. The 5 wave form seen now is:

sw1:4797-4855 = 58 pts
sw2:4855-4810 = 45 pts
sw3:4810-4927 = 117 pts
sw4:4927-4863 = 64 pts
sw5:4863-4966=103 pts

Both sw3 and sw5 doing more than 1.618*sw1 make it unacceptable to me.:-((

Then I switched over to 30 min candles and saw these 5 waves as:

SW1=4796.3-4868.25=72

SW2=4868.25-4809=59

SW3=4809-4927.1=118.1(164% of SW1)

SW4=4927.1-4863.95=63

SW5=4864-4966=102(142% of SW1)

slightly better but not good enough to make me happy.

So went looking for fresh perspective,different from the 5 wave form and the most suitable IMHO is a DZZ wherein

W=4797-4868

a=4797-4855=58

b=4855-4818=37

c=4818-4868=50

X=4868-4809

a=4868-4818=50

b=4818-4843=25

c=4843-4809=34

Y=4809-4966

a=4809-4927=118

b=4927-4864=63

c=4864-4966=102

Now this WXY=4797-4966=169 looks better as (iv) of W3 (retracement of (iii)=5132-4797=335) having retraced 50% rather than W4(i.e retracement of W3=5740-4797=943), as in the latter retracement is hardly 18%.

Conclusion: In view of the above,I believe we are now in (v) of W3 which is likely to travel down by a length approx. equal to (i)=143 (pl have a look at my previous posts to see details of W3).It mis more likely now that we may go below 4797 to complete this (v) of W3.

So I advise for today go short with SL at 4967 for targets below 4797.

Best of luck.

Raghu

Nifty EOD 22.8.2011

Continuing from my previous post

Q

Thus ,currently we have two probabilities:

Either the current upmove is W4 (retracement of W3=5740-4797=943);

Or it is (iv) of W3 (retracement of (iii)=5132-4797=335)

UnQ

This upmove has so far done

a=4796.3-4855.3=59

4796.3-4834.6=38.3

4834.6-4816=18.6

4816-4855.3=39.3

b=4855.3-4808.95=46.35(78.5%) as an extended flat

4855.3-4817.8=37.5

4817.8-4868.25=50.45(134.5%)

4868.25-4808.95=59.3(158% of 37.5)

c=4808.95-4909.5=100.55(170%) and here lies the CATCH

c does not normally exceed 161.8% of a.

And this means instead of being in a 3 wave form we are in a 5 wave form as A of W4 to the up.

Alternatively, the current upmove can also be seen as

a=4796.3-4868.25=72

4796.3-4855.3=59

4855.3-4817.8=37.5

4817.8-4868.25=50.45

b=4868.25-4808.95=59.3

4868.25-4818=50

4818-4843.4=26

4843.4-4808.95=34.45

c=4808.95-4909.5*=100.55 (139% of a) and can do a max of 161.8% of a=116=4925

And if we go above 4925,then like the first alternative we have to consider this upmove as A of W4.

To me, the first alternative (as per fractals) looks better. But I will not initiate trades till I get a confirmation from second alternative as well(i.e a move above 4926)

And a look within the fractals of c so far(4808.95-4909.5*) tells me that we are going to cross 4926.

How?

Lets have a look:

This c has to be a 5 wave form:

(i)=4809-4858=49

(ii)=4858-4840=18

(iii)=4840-4909.5=69

(iv)=4909.5-4886*

Then what is the conclusion?

Although confirmation has yet to come but I am inclined towards treating this upmove as a 5 wave A of W4 whose third wave is in play and any downmove would not bring it below 4855 (as that is the territory of Ist of A). My preference is longs till this expiry ends with a Stop Loss at 4850.

Best of luck.

Raghu

Guideline of Alternation -For Monday dt. 22-8-2011

As the Count currently being followed by me:

Wave C from 5944 downwards--5 wave form

W1=5944-5329=615

W2=5329-5740=411

W3= 5740 downwards ---in progress-----

SW1=5740-5497

SW2=5497-5702

SW3=5702-4946

SW4=4946-5194

SW5=5194 downwards in progress:

(i)=5194-5053=143 OR

(ii)=5053-5132=79(55%)

(iii)=5132-****

(iv)-****( this (iii)and (iv) got consumed by 19.8.2011 gap-down)

(v)=4894-4797

And W4 upwards has started done 4797-4855* so far

Alternatively

(i)=5194-5053=143

(ii)=5053-5132=79(55%)

(iii)=5132-4797=338

(iv)upwards started having done 4797-4855* so far

Thus ,currently we have two probabilities:

Either the current upmove is W4 (retracement of W3=5740-4797=943);

Or it is (iv) of W3 (retracement of (iii)=5132-4797=335)

At this point, The Guideline of Alternation can be very useful guide.

As W2 was an extended flat,if this upmove is W4, it should be a zig-zag(or a triangle).

As (ii) of W3 was a zig-zag,then if this upmove is (iv),it should be a flat (or a triangle).

And if it takes the shape of a flat (as (iv) of W3) it can go below 4797 and then come up to minimum retracement level of 4877.

So keep a close- watch.

Best of luck for today's trade.

Raghu

Nifty EOD 19.8.2011

Wave C from 5944 downwards--5 wave form--Target 4783

W1=5944-5329=615

W2=5329-5740=411

W3= in progress----- and seems to have ended at 4797 today

Minimum target 1.382*W1=850=5740-850=4890 ; and 1.682*W1=995=5740-995=4745

and has so far been:

SW1=5740-5497

SW2=5497-5702

SW3=5702-4946

SW4=4946-5194

SW5=5194 downwards in progress; Target approx =SW1=243=4951

I believe this SW5 got over today at 4797; Its identifiable fractals have been:

(i)=5194-5053=143

(ii)=5053-5132=79(55%)

(iii)=5132-****

(iv)-****( I believe this (iii)and (iv) got consumed by today's gap-down)

(v)=4894-4797 had its 5 sws as follows

4894-4860

4860-4874

4874-4812

4812-4829

4829-4797

And now W4 to the up is likely to take us up in 3 waves to 5150. Pl have a look at the link also

http://img839.imageshack.us/img839/6965/nifty1982011.png

Raghu

Nifty EOD 18-8-2011

Wave C from 5944 downwards--5 wave form--Target 4783

W1=5944-5329=615

W2=5329-5740=411

W3= in progress-----

Minimum target 1.382*W1=850=5740-850=4890 ; and 1.682*W1=995=5740-995=4745

and has so far been:

SW1=5740-5497

SW2=5497-5702

SW3=5702-4946

SW4=4946-5194

SW5=5194 downwards in progress; Target approx =SW1=243=4951

(i)=5194-5053=143

(ii)=5053-5132=79(55%)

(iii)=5132--downwards in progress--Target 1.618*(i)=231=4900 in 5 waves --termed sw1,sw2---

sw1=5132-5015=117

5132-5096

5096-5116

5116-5115(5116-5084;5084-5102;5102-5065;5065-5080;5080-5015)

5015-5075.45(5015-5061;5061-5030.3;3030.3-5075.45)

5075.45-5033.1

sw2=5033.1-5112=79(67.5%)

sw3=5112---in progress ; target 1.618*sw1=4922

5112-5017.6(5112-5077;5077-5087;5087-5032;5032-5050;5050-5017.6)

5017.6-5078(5017.6-5069.45;5069.45-5037.3;5037.3-5078)

5078-4932* and thus the target of 4922 is very close

sw4 upwards pending (should be approx 38.2% of sw3)

sw5 downwards pending (should be approx =sw1=117

Thus we are coming close to the end of (iii) of SW5 of W3 of C to the down with (iv) and (v) remaining.

So far the fractals have been very easy to spot but if we get into a gap-down again ,then we shall have to be very careful in deciding whether W3 has ended or only the (iii) of SW5 of W3 ?

Best of luck to all.

Raghu

Nifty EOD 17.8.2011

Wave C from 5944 downwards--5 wave form--Target 4783

W1=5944-5329=615

W2=5329-5740=411

W3= in progress minimum target 1.382*W1=850=5740-850=4890 and has so far been:

SW1=5740-5497

SW2=5497-5702

SW3=5702-4946

SW4=4946-5194

SW5=5194 downwards in progress

(i)=5194-5053=143

(ii)=5053-5132

(iii)=5132--downwards in progress--Target 1.618*(i)=231=4900 in 5 waves --termed sw1,sw2---

sw1=5132-5015=117

5132-5096

5096-5116

5116-5115(5116-5084;5084-5102;5102-5065;5065-5080;5080-5015)

5015-5075.45(5015-5061;5061-5030.3;3030.3-5075.45)

5075.45-5033.1

sw2=5033.1-5112(5033.1-5079;5079-5064;5064-5112)

sw3=5112---in progress

5112-5017.6(5112-5077;5077-5087;5087-5032;5032-5050;5050-5017.6)

5017.6-5072*(5017.6-5069.45;5069.45-5037.3;5037.3-5072)

Remember we are still in downtrend and minimum target is 4890

Raghu

Nifty EOD 16.8.2011

Still getting used to the new platform.Infact yesterday wanted to add a link that would have been very useful for today's trades,but it was not to be----

As such continuing with minor alterations in counts.First of all a link to make the waves clear:

http://img825.imageshack.us/img825/5453/nifty1682011.png

Now the counts:

Wave C from 5944 downwards--5 wave form--Target 4783

W1=5944-5329=615

W2=5329-5740=411

W3= in progress minimum target 1.382*W1=850=5740-850=4890 and has so far been:

SW1=5740-5497

SW2=5497-5702

SW3=5702-4946

SW4=4946-5194 a link to the details of this SW4 is as follows:

http://img708.imageshack.us/img708/5527/nifty1282011.jpg

SW5=5194 downwards in progress

(i)=5194-5053=143

(ii)=5053-5132=79(55%)

a=5053-5093

5053-5083

5083-5063

5063-5093

b=5092-5067

c=5067-5132

(iii)=5132--downwards in progress

5132-5096

5096-5116

5116-5115(5116-5084;5084-5102;5102-5065;5065-5080;5080-5015)

5015-5061*

This is how we stand --IMHO

Target remains 4890

Raghu

Nifty Counts

My first post: Seek not only guidance from the Almighty but also blessings from my Guru WW and my Friend,Philosopher& Guide RCG. Special thanks to Naagi for providing me this platform.

Nifty Counts: Where to start from?

I am starting from the November 4,2010 high of 6339 and terming it simply THE CORRECTIVE.

Would try to fit this CORRECTIVE into larger picture as we proceed. Also I would not be following the Purist form of labelling as I have learnt EW on street - like Eklavya- so please forgive me.

A=6339-5177=1162

B=5177-5944=767(66% retraced)

C=5944- downwards in progress- as a 5 wave form with most probable target of 4782(C=A)

W1=5944-5329=615

W2=5329-5740=411(67%) as an Extended Flat

W3=5740- down wards in 5 waves with target 1.382*W1=4890(min) or 1.618*W1=4749

The down move from 5740-4946 has been full of Gap-downs making it difficult to pen down the fractals.So the upmove from 4946-5197 can be seen either as W4 or sw4 of W3. I prefer to see it as sw4 of W3 as percentagewise the minimum target of this W3 has yet to be met.

So I am seeing this W3 as:

sw1=5740-5497=243

sw2=5497-5702=205(84%)

sw3=5702-4946=756(311%of sw1)

sw4=4946-5197=251(33%)

a=4946-5167=221

b=5167-5011=156

c=5011-5197=186

sw5=in progress Target 5197-243=4954,though I expect it to go below 4900 to meet the W3 tgt

(i)=5197-5124=73

(ii)=5124-5194.4=70 as an extended flat

5124-5174

5174-5121

5121-5194.4(as a diagonal-5121-5170;5170-5127;5127-5185;5185-5132;5132-5194.4)

(iii)=5194.4-5053.3=141

(iv)=5053.3-5092*

here one set of zz is already done

5053-5083

5083-5063

5063-5092

(v) remaining and is likely to bring the Nifty to 5020 level

Then one set of 5 subwaves would be technically over and a retracement to this 5183.3-5020* will take Nifty up again.

That's how I perceive the price action for now. 

God bless !!!