Nifty EOD 22.8.2011

Continuing from my previous post

Q

Thus ,currently we have two probabilities:

Either the current upmove is W4 (retracement of W3=5740-4797=943);

Or it is (iv) of W3 (retracement of (iii)=5132-4797=335)

UnQ

This upmove has so far done

a=4796.3-4855.3=59

4796.3-4834.6=38.3

4834.6-4816=18.6

4816-4855.3=39.3

b=4855.3-4808.95=46.35(78.5%) as an extended flat

4855.3-4817.8=37.5

4817.8-4868.25=50.45(134.5%)

4868.25-4808.95=59.3(158% of 37.5)

c=4808.95-4909.5=100.55(170%) and here lies the CATCH

c does not normally exceed 161.8% of a.

And this means instead of being in a 3 wave form we are in a 5 wave form as A of W4 to the up.

Alternatively, the current upmove can also be seen as

a=4796.3-4868.25=72

4796.3-4855.3=59

4855.3-4817.8=37.5

4817.8-4868.25=50.45

b=4868.25-4808.95=59.3

4868.25-4818=50

4818-4843.4=26

4843.4-4808.95=34.45

c=4808.95-4909.5*=100.55 (139% of a) and can do a max of 161.8% of a=116=4925

And if we go above 4925,then like the first alternative we have to consider this upmove as A of W4.

To me, the first alternative (as per fractals) looks better. But I will not initiate trades till I get a confirmation from second alternative as well(i.e a move above 4926)

And a look within the fractals of c so far(4808.95-4909.5*) tells me that we are going to cross 4926.

How?

Lets have a look:

This c has to be a 5 wave form:

(i)=4809-4858=49

(ii)=4858-4840=18

(iii)=4840-4909.5=69

(iv)=4909.5-4886*

Then what is the conclusion?

Although confirmation has yet to come but I am inclined towards treating this upmove as a 5 wave A of W4 whose third wave is in play and any downmove would not bring it below 4855 (as that is the territory of Ist of A). My preference is longs till this expiry ends with a Stop Loss at 4850.

Best of luck.

Raghu