Wave C from 5944 downwards--5 wave form--Target 4783
W1=5944-5329=615
W2=5329-5740=411
W3= in progress----- and seems to have ended at 4797 today
Minimum target 1.382*W1=850=5740-850=4890 ; and 1.682*W1=995=5740-995=4745
and has so far been:
SW1=5740-5497
SW2=5497-5702
SW3=5702-4946
SW4=4946-5194
SW5=5194 downwards in progress; Target approx =SW1=243=4951
I believe this SW5 got over today at 4797; Its identifiable fractals have been:
(i)=5194-5053=143
(ii)=5053-5132=79(55%)
(iii)=5132-****(iv)-****( I believe this (iii)and (iv) got consumed by today's gap-down)
(v)=4894-4797 had its 5 sws as follows
4894-4860
4860-4874
4874-4812
4812-4829
4829-4797
And now W4 to the up is likely to take us up in 3 waves to 5150. Pl have a look at the link also
http://img839.imageshack.us/img839/6965/nifty1982011.png
Raghu
i dont think W5 has finished
ReplyDeletepls check in detail over weekend guru ji, my humble request
urs
Dear Shri,
ReplyDeleteWhy so tense(intense)?
Believe in your counts and keep on learning everyday.All I can assure is that if you watch 5 min & 2 min ticks during mkt action and are able to place them properly in your counts,you will be able to initiate trades very close to top and bottom and maximise gains(and minimise losses if caught on the wrong foot).Now the last leg of down move had made a perfect 5 sub-waves:
Q
4894-4797 had its 5 sws as follows
4894-4860=34
4860-4874=14
4874-4812=62
4812-4829=17
4829-4797=32
UnQ
By going above 4829,it has confirmed that
4829-4797 is over and if this set of 5 subwaves is considered part of (iii) of SW5 of W3 then this (iii) will become 5132-4797=335 which would be 234% of (i) . And quite probable. So even if we presume that SW5 of W3 is not over at 4797 and only (iii)of SW5 is over then also (iv) of SW5 has to go up by 38.2% to 50% of this (iii) which means a retracement to 4924 and 4964.
As I would be following this upmove tick by tick,the waveform will tell me whether it is (iv) of SW5 of W3 or W4 in play.
Best part is that we are going up for next move,labeling would be confirmed later.And once the direction is clear,half the battle has been won.
:-)
Raghu
hahah... nahi guru ji,
ReplyDeleteam not tense @ all, made excellent gains in past 1 week!
Actually, seeing developments in US & Europe, I get a very strong hunch that we may slip below 4K in next 2 months!
pls look @ following ID wave count also for PD ABC, wave C started 6339:-
PD A : 6558-2258
PD B : 2258-6339
PD C : 6339-** in play (as a 5wave)
ID 1 : 6339-5177
ID 2 : 5177-5944
ID 3 : 5944- **
MjD 1 : 5944-5329 =
MjD 2 : 5329-5740
MjD 3 : 5740- **
If we assume that in this -ve MOMENTUM, MjD 3 will do ideal 1.618X MjD 1, then that gives 995 pts or tgt of 4745
I am saying the proabbility still exists that MjD 3 is ON
ULTIMATE TGT for Nifty is sub 4k (61.8%xPDA=3990) , imho
urs
SMO
My beloved guru ji,
ReplyDeleteQ
4894-4797 had its 5 sws as follows
4894-4860=34
4860-4874=14 (tick showing as 4870.5 on google finance)
4874-4812=62
4812-4829=17
4829-4797=32
unQ
my humble opinion is C:3:5:(v) can be considered over only if Nifty goes ABOVE 4870.75,
(sw4 going below sw2 of this move from 4894-4797),
before hitting levels lower than 4797.
We will know hopefully in the next 2 days & tat will conclude the matter :-)
urs
SMO
2 min chart in goofin at 11.02 shows 4874.05
ReplyDeleteAnd reg sentiment all around all I would say is go wave to wave and cut noise.For extreme short term trades I think this is the best way.
Nifty’s probable further moves:
ReplyDeleteIf it does not come back to below 4800 levels once again breaching 4796 level , then:
OPt(A) (i) 5132-4796=336x23.6%=80+4796=4877
(ii) 5132-4796=336x38.2%=128+4796=4925
(iii) 5132-4796=336x50%=168+4796=4964
(iv) 5132-4796=336x61.8%=208+4796=5004
Opt.(B) (i) 5702-4796=906x23.6%=214+4796=5010
(ii) 5702-4796=906x38.2%=346+4796=5142
So Maximum Target of upmove is 5142 for now,then again a dip of 250 to 600 points
Quoting Jeffrey Kennedy
ReplyDeleteEvery Wave can be counted to the lowest fractal - BUT every wave is not worth a trade!