Nifty: EOD 31.5.2012-Various Probablities

I am listing these out to illustrate how one various Probabilities are open and how the market may move within a range ---
Levels to watch tomorrow are
 4982.05 on the upside and
4906.2 on the downside.
My bet is on 4906.2 getting breached and then testing 4845.
I am looking at the downmove from 5020 a a Diagonal first wave:
(i)=5020-4945=75
(ii)=4945-4982
(iii)=4982-4883=99
(iv)=4883-4947*
(v) down again by more than 99

And for those who may be interested in today's Intra-day move and its labels:

A tick above 4978.7 would invalidate this Count


Raghu

Trading Nifty on 31-05-2012

The most important level to watch today is 4907.7
A tick below it would be a signal to be ready for 4860 today.
If it survives then a minimum upmove of 60 points from day's low would be ensured.

I would set-up my trades accordingly.

9.10 AM
End of pre-open session shows an opening at 4896.5
So we have to count a fresh downmove from 5020 as:
(i)=5020-4945=75
(ii)=4945-4982=37
(iii)= Down from 4982 by min 1.62*75=121=4861= Ist target of the day.
Use all rises Intraday to short for this target.

9.50 AM

Yb started from 4789 upwards to retrace Ya=5342-4789=553

This Yb cab be labelled as:
YbA=4789-4956=167
YbB=4956-4804 ending at 4810
YbC =4810-5020

Yc started from 5020 downwards to do minimum 0.62*Ya=0.62*553=343=4677

This is the most bearish of all Probabilities.
Other Probabilities would be mentioned at EOD

10.10 AM
Currently both 5 min TA and Hour TA are oversold.
So an upmove of minimum 30 odd points is expected.We may even see it going above 4945 as the fresh downmove's first wave can be a diagonal also.
So far:
(i)=5020-4945=75
(ii)=4945-4982
(iii)=4982-4895=87
(iv)=4895-upwards may overlap with (i)
(v) down again
So use the opening range breakout for intra-day longs.But manage it  prudently as the direction has become downwards and upwards moves are only correctives.

EOD

As was anticipated, overlap did take place and therefore out labels are:

(i)=5020-4945=75
(ii)=4945-4982
(iii)=4982-4883=99
(iv)=4883-4947*
(v) down again

to complete the diagonal:

The Stop-loss for shorts is at 4982.1

Raghu

Trading Nifty on 30-05-2011

So Yb started from 4789 upwards now stands labelled as:

YbA in progress:
sw1=4789-4956=167
sw2=4956-4804(ended at 4810)
sw3=4810 upwards in progress
(i)=4810-4908=98
(ii)=4908-4856=52
(iii)=4856 upwards in progress target minimum 1.62*(i)=159=5015
4856-4932=76
4932-4889=43
4889 -5020=131
5020-4983*=37
4983---upwards by min 47 likely  to complete (iii)
Thus T1=5030
T2=5060
Then (iv) to bring it down to 4990 again

The above illustration is a copy-book perfected projection.
However,as the minimum required for (iii)[5015] has already been done,we may already be in (iv) from 5020 downwards---so yesterday's low has to hold for above projection to come true. And a tick above 5010.85 would confirm this projection.
And a tick below yesterday's low would open the gates for 4970 level and then if we tick below 4969, it would confirm that we would slide to sub 4932 during the day
9.08 AM
End of pre-open session shows an opening at 4964.5.
That means we have to label the waves as follows:

A test of 4930 is likely.
However,4907.7 should not be breached as per these labels.
So all rises(intraday)to 4990 levels should be shorted with a target of 4930(Stop-loss 5011);
And once below 4930,one should go long for a target of 5020+ with stop-loss at 4907.


These two trade-set-ups should be followed during the day----


11.17 AM
Expected waves:

1.15 PM
For those like me who were waiting for gap at 4982 to be filled,the opportunity never came.
The downmove from 5020.1, labelled by me as (iv) has to be a 3 wave form say (iv)a;(iv).b and (iv).c

(iv).a---a 5 wave form--as shown in chart below-- would be over at sub-4945 levels
Or may be a Flat in work to fill the gap--

2.30 PM

At long last,the gap as well as my order to short--got filled--

Minimum target for (iv).c is 0.62*75=45=4983-45=4938
3.25 PM
very close to target.
Do not carry shorts overnight


EOD:
Lets have a look at how our labels stand currently:

Yb started from 4789 upwards now stands labelled as:

YbA in progress:
sw1=4789-4956=167
sw2=4956-4804(ended at 4810)
sw3=4810 upwards in progress
(i)=4810-4908=98
(ii)=4908-4856=52
(iii)=4856 -5020=164
(iv)=5020-4945* in play
a=5020-4945
b=4945-4982
c=4982-4945* minimum required is 4938(c=min 0.62*a)
(v) upwards to start after it.

A tick below 4907.7 would, however, invalidate this Count.


Raghu

Trading Nifty on 29-05-2012

So Yb started from 4789 upwards now stands labelled as:

YbA in progress:
sw1=4789-4956=167
sw2=4956-4804(ended at 4810)
sw3=4810 upwards in progress
(i)=4810-4908=98
(ii)=4908-4856=52
(iii)=4856 upwards in progress target minimum 1.62*(i)=159=5015
4856-4932=76
4932-4889=43
4889  upwards in progress as 5 wave form(4889-4936;4936-4913;4913-4971;4971-4943;4943 to 5020(likely) in progress

These waves within waves can be seen on the charts as follows:

And therefore once this 5018-5020 is reached a downwave is likely to start--- and the degree of that downwave would be known later(as 5018-5020 is signalling end of upwaves of 3 different degrees of waves).

Sameer Anand asked a very interesting question:

Q

sir

as per ur EW analysis 5015 is minimum for (iii)
is there a way to find maximum for (iii)?

UnQ

While EW wise an extension ranges from 1.618% to 425%,we use other indicaters,particularly channels/trendlines and momentum (once the minimum has been reached)to find out the point of reversal.

In current scenario:

Charts like above along with various ema(usually 5/10) cross-overs and/or Stochastic cross-overs are used to find out the extent of extension and beginning of its reversal.
3.20 PM

EOD
At EOD our labels stand as:

So Yb started from 4789 upwards now stands labelled as:

YbA in progress:
sw1=4789-4956=167
sw2=4956-4804(ended at 4810)
sw3=4810 upwards in progress
(i)=4810-4908=98
(ii)=4908-4856=52
(iii)=4856 upwards in progress target minimum 1.62*(i)=159=5015
4856-4932=76
4932-4889=43
4889 -5020=131
5020-4983*=37
4983---upwards by min 47 likely tomorrow to complete (iii)

Raghu

Trading Nifty on 28-05-2012

My guiding light for the day:

Probability 2

In this Probability 2, Yb as zig-zag is shown. Though the guidelines say that in a zig-zag B(written as sw2 here) should not be doing more than 80% of A(written as sw1 here). But markets are supreme---so this Probability can not and should not be totally ruled out.

11.00AM
Price RSI divergence on 5 min charts
Difficulty to cross 4960
and overbot TA on 5 min chart pointing to a dip.
Should not go below 4913

11.20 Am
The tick above 4965 has ruled out the Probability2 mentioned in the morning.
All dips to be bot now for a target of 5015.
SL for longs now at 4913
1.25 PM

2.45 PM
A strict TSL for longs at 4943 is suggested

3.15 PM


Now that the last subwave has crossed 35.5 so we are very well on our way to 5020.

EOD
So Yb started from 4789 upwards now stands labelled as:
YbA in progress:
sw1=4789-4956=167
sw2=4956-4804(ended at 4810)
sw3=4810 upwards in progress
(i)=4810-4908=98
(ii)=4908-4856=52
(iii)=4856 upwards in progress target minimum 1.62*(i)=159=5015
4856-4932=76
4932-4889=43
4889  upwards in progress as 5 wave form(4889-4936;4936-4913;4913-4971;4971-4943;4943 to 5020(likely) in progress

Raghu

Nifty EOD 25-5-2012

Ya=5342-4789=553
Yb retracing Ya as a 3 wave form (say YbA,YbB,YbC);
38.2% retracement=5000
50% retracement=5065
62% retracement=5130
And lets see what trendlines are saying:

 Easiest labeling would be:
YbA=4789-4956=167
YbB=4956-4804( ended at 4809.8)
YbC=4809.8 upwards in play and likely to cross 5000

However,I have an issue with these labels as this zig-zag has YbB retracing 91% of YbA and normally in a zig-zag B retraces 80% of A.
So I prefer labeling it differently.
I believe we are still in YbA  doing a 5 wave(it remains to be seen whether it is a 5 wave Impulse or a 5 wave Diagonal):
sw1=4789-4956=167
sw2=4956-4804(ending at 4809.8)
sw3=4809.8 upwards in play
(i)=4809.8-4907.7=98
(ii)=4907.7-4856=52
(iii)=4856- onwards minimum 159=5015 target
4856-4932=76
4932-4889=43
4889- upwards likely to go 1.62*76=123=5012
4889-4936=47
4936-4913=26
4913-upwards by 1.62*47=76=4989 likely target

This is an illustration of how waves within waves occur.

I would keep a Stop-loss for longs at 4889

Raghu

Trading Nifty on 25-05-2012

You all know I am labelling the current upmove from 4789 as Yb which is retracing Ya=5342-4789=553;
50% retracement means 5065 and 61.8%=5130
As Ya had an extended 5th wave,the guideline of retracement gives us two most probable retracement levels wherein the extended 5th either gets fully retraced(i.e. upto 5125) or gets retraced to the end of 2nd subwave of the extended wave(i.e.4976)
Timewise, as Ya had taken 21 days,I believe Yb may take minimum 8 days.
How helpful these guidelines would be only time will tell but main take-away is that current market direction is up so we should follow buy at dips strategy

This Yb has to be a Corrective 3 wave form simplest of which is a zig-zag.

The way this upmove has shaped up so far:
4789-4956=167-5 wave form
4956-4804=152(91%)-3wave zig-zag form
it seems to me as A of a zig-zag Yb is in play wherein:
sw1=4789-4956=167
sw2=4956-4804(ended at 4809.8)
sw3 in play from 4809.8 upwards
(i)=4809.8-4907.7=97.9
(ii)=4907.7-4858.6=49.1
(iii)=4858.6 upwards by min 1.62*(i)=158.6 gives us a target of 5017
20 day sma is at 5007 so our testing 5017 today is quite probable


Where this sw3 ends would be quite interesting to note because A of Yb may act as not only as a 5 wave Impulse but as a Diagonal also.

12.50 Pm

A round below day's low is possible again.

a=4931-4889(3 wave)

b=4889-4927(3wave)

c=4927 to below 4889 as Impulse

1.25 PM

P use 4919 as threshold.

If crossed upwards then upmove would continue

2.08 PM

It has been very complicated upmove from 4889

It was a diagonal---

3.25 PM

The Diagonal 4889-4935 has got retraced as a 3 wave form to 4913.

Looks ripe for creating longs.

EOD

Extremely small range and what choppiness within that--!!!

Shifted to 1 min charts and it helped a lot .

May get a gap-up on Monday morning.

Trading Nifty on 24-05-2012

Can a Diagonal be truncated?
Yesterday I had written:
Q
The upmove from 4789-4956=167 has got retraced by 91%. Theoretically possible but normally more than 80% retracement causes concern at labels.
Also,the labels of this retracement as 
a=4956-4881=75
b=4881-4906=25
c=4906-4804=102 look within guidelines but this c's internal fractals were not very convincing.
UnQ


And the most convincing labels for c(started from 4906 downwards) were projected as:

For c to be a perfect diagonal,three conditions had to be fulfilled:
1.Overlap with wave 4906-4850;
2.Not going above 4875.05;
3.The last subwave doing more than 70.8( so that sw5>sw3>sw1);
while Ist two conditions were satisfied, the third one wasn't. And how could it be?  For sw5 to be more than sw3, sw4(from 4804 upwards) should have done minimum 4861 which it hasnot so far----


So to me, most important level to watch today is 4875.05
A tick above it would mean we are well on our journey to 5130.
Otherwise, probability of going below 4804 once again would be very much alive( and I must mention again that probability of going below 4789 is minimal).

11.40AM
4875 gone---
balle balle to bulls---
Buy into all dips now---
12.10 PM
Power back-up failing so may not be able to post again today.
My target remains 5130 and how we reach there is difficult to say at present.
Best of luck to all of you. 

Trading Nifty on 23-05-2012

8.30 AM
Global clues are showing weakness.
Watch 4840.15
If it gets broken then further downslide would open up which may not be very deep but lot od volatile 40-50 odd points up & down moves would take place. Chances of 4789 getting broken are minimal.
A tick below 4840.15 would mean us spending the day in 4910-4820 range

9.40 AM
If 4830 holds,then following may become the pattern for the day

And what if 4830 breaks?
Then we shall go below 4816 but should not break 4809

12.10 Pm
While a bounce seems to be taking place but our labels have been invalidated.
One probability is that of a Diagonal C from 4906 downwards which envisages overlap with 4850 and then a drop below day's low again

And please note that the above probability does not envisage a move above 4875.05
2.21 PM
EW labels not settled as yet but Hourly indicaters are suggesting upmove.


EOD:
The upmove from 4789-4956=167 has got retraced by 91%. Theoretically possible but normally more than 80% retracement causes concern at labels.
Also,the labels of this retracement as 
a=4956-4881=75
b=4881-4906=25
c=4906-4804=102 look within guidelines but this c's internal fractals were not very convincing.


The only positive indication for people like me who believe that Ya had its bootom in place at 4789 and currently Yb in action, was the breaking of day's high(breach of opening range) at 4847 and then failing to form a lower low.
Tomorrow,if we breach today's high of 4853.5 ,that would confirm that we are on correct track---

Raghu

Trading Nifty on 22.5.2012

So Ya=5342-4789=253
Yb retracing 61.8% means testing 5130:
As extended fifth gets fully retraced so that gives another reason for Yb reaching 5130.
So the best trade would be to go positional long for this target of 5130.

However this target is not going to be a one way smooth process.
Yb has to be a 3 wave form--Yb.A,Yb.B and Yb.C


Current upmove---4789-4937*-- is part of Yb.A
This YbA can follow many patterns---most simple being 5 wave Impulse or 5 wave Diagonal.
I shall be discussing only these two Probabilities( but that does not mean elimination of other Probabilities) and do bear in mind that both these Probabilities would become invalid if we tick below 4861 


Yb.A as a 5 wave Diagonal:

So tomorrow if we open below 4889
Go long with Stop-loss at 4861
Target 4940


Yb.A  as a 5 wave Impulse:

Thus if we donot go below 4889 chances of crossing 5000 tomorrow would be higher.
However if we go below 4889, chances of our getting restricted to 4940 would be higher.
Stop-loss for both these Probabilities is 4961.


8.30 AM
Going by the global clues,probability of 4889 being breached in the morning is almost NIL.
That means no overlap of (i) and (iv) and therefore no chance of a 5 wave Diagonal.
Does that mean 5000 would be breached  today(as mentioned in Probability 2?
Not exactly. Infact just as I was emphasizing watching 4889 till now for overlap, now I would suggest watching 4956.
What is the significance of 4956?
As (i)=4789.15-4889.4=100.25
(iii)=4861.05-4933.25=72.2
(v)=100.25/1.618=61.95=4894.5+61.95=4956.45
That would make (i) extended vis-a-vis (v)--thus fulfilling the criterion for a 5 wave Impulse.
So watch the 4940-4956 band carefully and carry longs only if we manage a tick above 4956.5.

And one must watch the following two charts consistently during the day for catching the top and dip with the help of cross-overs in over-bot and oversold territories--to compliment EW counts.

10.45 Am
Facing some problem in chart posting.
Make a trendline joining 4789 and 4894.That would be the first support today.
The degree of current retracement would be defined by the tick below yesterday's low.

4938.5 should be the trailing stop loss for shorts---

11.25 AM
Smallest degree waves are quite difficult to decipher.
We might still not have formed the day's low as per following pattern---

12.20 PM
Minimum c=0,62*a
meaning 4922

1.15 PM
Degree of retracement has been defined.
One Impulse over at 4956
Retracement to 4850 likely

2.40 PM

3.10 PM
It has become a tradition nowadays to close at lowest or highest point of the day.
However the retracement has fulfilled all its conditions--

EOD
All I can say is:
JAI HO EW KEE !!!
Now back to 4956+ zone
And should we apply Fib ratio to Time analysis also?

Raghu