Trading Nifty on 31-05-2012

The most important level to watch today is 4907.7
A tick below it would be a signal to be ready for 4860 today.
If it survives then a minimum upmove of 60 points from day's low would be ensured.

I would set-up my trades accordingly.

9.10 AM
End of pre-open session shows an opening at 4896.5
So we have to count a fresh downmove from 5020 as:
(i)=5020-4945=75
(ii)=4945-4982=37
(iii)= Down from 4982 by min 1.62*75=121=4861= Ist target of the day.
Use all rises Intraday to short for this target.

9.50 AM

Yb started from 4789 upwards to retrace Ya=5342-4789=553

This Yb cab be labelled as:
YbA=4789-4956=167
YbB=4956-4804 ending at 4810
YbC =4810-5020

Yc started from 5020 downwards to do minimum 0.62*Ya=0.62*553=343=4677

This is the most bearish of all Probabilities.
Other Probabilities would be mentioned at EOD

10.10 AM
Currently both 5 min TA and Hour TA are oversold.
So an upmove of minimum 30 odd points is expected.We may even see it going above 4945 as the fresh downmove's first wave can be a diagonal also.
So far:
(i)=5020-4945=75
(ii)=4945-4982
(iii)=4982-4895=87
(iv)=4895-upwards may overlap with (i)
(v) down again
So use the opening range breakout for intra-day longs.But manage it  prudently as the direction has become downwards and upwards moves are only correctives.

EOD

As was anticipated, overlap did take place and therefore out labels are:

(i)=5020-4945=75
(ii)=4945-4982
(iii)=4982-4883=99
(iv)=4883-4947*
(v) down again

to complete the diagonal:

The Stop-loss for shorts is at 4982.1

Raghu