Trading Nifty 11-05-2012

I am keeping in mind two Probabilities today both showing GREEN :

Probability 1 : Not likely to go above 5125:

Probability 2:
It would definitely take us above 5125:

Keep a Stop-loss for longs at 4944.
(Because going below 4944 would invalidate totally Probability 2 and bring in the new Probability of an extended (v) for Ya wherein the labels would be:
(i)=5342-5154=188
(ii)=5154-5279=125
(iii)=5279-4988=291---155% of (i) so not extended.
(iv)=4988-5125=137
(v)=5125-- downwards has to be extended i.e to do a minimum of 304=4820

So we are on a very crucial support which, if breaks, then 4820 will be tested .

9.08 AM
Pre-open session has ended at 4939 so our crucial support at 4944 has been broken at the very outset.
Now 4820 would be on screen in a day or two.


So bringing to the fore :

(i)=5342-5154=188
(ii)=5154-5279=125
(iii)=5279-4988=291---155% of (i) so not extended.
(iv)=4988-5125=137
(v)=5125-- downwards has to be extended i.e to do a minimum of 304=4820
sw1=5125-4939*
sw2=4939-- use this rise to create short positions--

Break-down in opening range so above labels would be useful
11.00 AM

3.15 Pm
Today's choppy moves were difficult to configure and label---closing all my positions and would wait for a clearer picture.


EOD:

As the moves today were too foggy for sw3 -- tried looking for alternative labels:

So 5039 holds the key.


Below it Ya continues.
Above 5039, Ya would be taken to have ended at 4906 and Yb beginning from there(4906) would take us up to levels above 5125--


Raghu