Trading Nifty on 04-05-2012

My preferred labels:

Now if anyone asks me to provide fractals of Yb(a)=5154-5279=125,I shall not be able to do that --- neither as a 5 wave nor as a 3 wave form.
I am taking this Yb(a) as a 5 wave form in the above labels just to ensure that my Counts donot move ahead of waves --- though going below 5179 would mean more than 80% retracement of 5154-5279 and that would weaken the above labels and once below 5165, I would prefer to treat  Yb as over at 5279 because a 90% retracement of 5154-5279-- that to by another 5 wave form(5279-5165*) should be prudently seen as a higher degree wave(in current case as sw1 of Yc). And in that scenario, I shall label as follows:

 In such a scenario, trade-setups are quite difficult and the most one can do is "scalping" 30-40 points here and there----something that should be avoided unless one is a habitual,compulsive scalper.

9.11 am
Once below 5162,minimum required for Y would be done--
Ya=5342-5154=188
Yb=5154-5279=125
Yc=5279-5162=117=0.62 of Ya

So Probability of moving up sharply also will become alive,once we go below 5162/5154.

A low of 5159.6 has been made--
Now the minimum conditions for the downmove's end have been fulfilled.
To avoid a truncated Yc,going below 5154 ( low of Ya)is necessary.
To avoid a trucated Y,going below 5136(low of W) is necessary--
Lets see if any truncations are there or we reverse from sub-5136 levels--

A breakout above day's high would be the first indication of the reversal having begun--

11.30 PM

12.00 N
Nifty making new lows but on 5 min charts,RSI not going lower---first sign of weaking momentum-- that should be used for squaring off shorts--

12.35 PM

While I have started taking long positions ---
Would be adding more around 5084(if we happen to reach there) or above 5160--

1.20 PM
As panic starts gripping,I remind myself:

An attempt at bottom catching---

2.25 PM:
Discernible waves so far:

2.53 PM

EOD:

sometimesbullsometimesbearMay 4, 2012 01:13 AM

But why not below 5069 breaking even 5000 and up to 4750 levels :):)

Very valid insertion--anything is possible. Particularly now , with a close below 200DMA such sounds would gather more momentum.

On this blog, as our main tool is EW, I can speak on the basis of my knowledge about waves---

Wave B has retraced 50% of wave A as WXY

Ya=188(5342-5154)

Yc can do upto 1.61 of Ya=302=4976-- so that way,what you say is quite possible.

But normally C=A so Yc=Ya=188 meant 5091 so EW followers like me,start looking for a reversal at these levels and sometimeswesucceedsometimeswefail----

:):)

Raghu