Let me start from the end of yesterday's EOD post:
Normally I initiate trade when my EW count synchronizes with the Hourly (standardized by me) charts above .
Now this chart shows:
1. Price closed below 5Hr.LEMA(5242);
2.MACD(34,5) shows a negative x-over in positive territory;
3.RSI(14) goes below 50;
4.Stoch(21,3) shows a negative x-over in overbot zone--
Thus all Momentum Indicators are clearly bearish.
And EW wise also,the Impulse 5222-5279 has been retraced upto 5226.5 i.e. 92%. Normally a retracement of more than 80% is considered to be a retracemement of higher degree(though theoretically a wave can be retraced 99.9%).
And yet I took long position in the dying minutes.
I feel, now, that it was not a very prudent thing to do as my style is to initiate a trade ONLY when all parameters are matching. Still let us see what technicals( leave aside temperamentals--though in a grinding frustrating small range mkt they did play their role) prompted me to go long:
One and only reason was my total belief that the upmove from 5154 has to complete a 3 wave zig-zag form by going above 5289 to complete the retracement of Ya=5342-5154 and that's it.
SL for longs remains at 5222 and EW guiding spirit is the following chart:
.png)
And lets have a close look at how this Yb(c) has moved so far from 5222 upwards:
.png)
Keeping Stop-loss for longs at 5222.
What if we go below 5222?
Have been staring at charts since morning to draw the Probabilities that might emerge if we tick below 5222.
Not able to crystalize any so far---
9.20 AM
So Momentum Indicaters had their say. Stop-loss has got hit-- confirming that my labels were not correct.
Would wait for some more clarity to emerge ( when labels would get in sync with Indicaters---)
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Now this chart shows:
1. Price closed below 5Hr.LEMA(5242);
2.MACD(34,5) shows a negative x-over in positive territory;
3.RSI(14) goes below 50;
4.Stoch(21,3) shows a negative x-over in overbot zone--
Thus all Momentum Indicators are clearly bearish.
And EW wise also,the Impulse 5222-5279 has been retraced upto 5226.5 i.e. 92%. Normally a retracement of more than 80% is considered to be a retracemement of higher degree(though theoretically a wave can be retraced 99.9%).
And yet I took long position in the dying minutes.
I feel, now, that it was not a very prudent thing to do as my style is to initiate a trade ONLY when all parameters are matching. Still let us see what technicals( leave aside temperamentals--though in a grinding frustrating small range mkt they did play their role) prompted me to go long:
One and only reason was my total belief that the upmove from 5154 has to complete a 3 wave zig-zag form by going above 5289 to complete the retracement of Ya=5342-5154 and that's it.
SL for longs remains at 5222 and EW guiding spirit is the following chart:
.png)
.png)
Keeping Stop-loss for longs at 5222.
What if we go below 5222?
Have been staring at charts since morning to draw the Probabilities that might emerge if we tick below 5222.
Not able to crystalize any so far---
9.20 AM
So Momentum Indicaters had their say. Stop-loss has got hit-- confirming that my labels were not correct.
Would wait for some more clarity to emerge ( when labels would get in sync with Indicaters---)
.png)
While the labels for 5154-5279 remain undefined, the downmove is clearly a 5 wave:
.png)
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.png)
Five wave downmove getting over:
.png)
Not only the 5min but also Hr. Charts entering oversold zone--oversold zone-- so a bounceup likely in last hour:
EOD:
Expect a green opening tomorrow to retrace 50-62% of 5 wave downmove from 5279 to 5180.
A bit disappointed as yesterday's shorting target of 5289+ could not be met so could not capitalize upon this 100 point downmove.
We may see 5240 again tomorrow before sliding below 5180. And the length of that slide would confirm our labels---- whether this downmove is Yc or still a part of Yb is playing out ---
Friday,nevertheless, would be volatile--
Raghu
5279-5260=19
ReplyDelete5260-5270=10
5270-5241-29
5241-5259=18
5259-5203*-
guruji anything wrong as per ew with this 5 wave
move
If it co-relates with its previous wave--- go ahead
Deleteguruji
ReplyDeleteit doesnt. but previous wave valid till yesterday became
invalid below 5222.
shud any zz or dzz be labellable like this. has it been ur past experience.i am asking u this
because i know that u evaluate all possiblities that ppl
like me dont even think of
Don't be in a hurry--- I shall post my views asap
Deletehi piyush may be y(b) done @5279 and y(c) start from 5279..
Deletewave
1. 5279-5240 (39)
2. 5240-5259 (19)
3. 5259-5202*
for next tgt for 3 wave is
Delete5195 (39*1.618=63)
5156 (39*2.618=102
Dear Vishu
DeletePercentage wise Yb looks done as it has retraced 66% of Ya(=5342-5154=188).
However,form-wise(remember Yb had to be a 3 wave form)I am not convinced.
@vishu
ReplyDeleteraghuji's min 5289 not reached for yb completiion
i know raghuji's TGT was 5289min.
Deletebut it's return from 5279.
i am just trying to understand EW wave. i know i m going wrong some where but we have to find right way.
@vishu
ReplyDeleteraghuji told
'Don't be in a hurry--- I shall post my views asap'
Delete
dear sir
ReplyDeleteif this is Y(c) wave then wave 3 start from 5259-5189. correction is complete @5213 Because wave 5 should not go more then 70 points.anything wrong as per my view sir.
Raghu ji,
ReplyDelete5 wave downmove over ??
Dear sir
Delete1. 5279-5240 (39)
2. 5240-5259 (19)
3. 5259-5189 (70)
4. 5189-5216
5. 5216 just start
Wave 5 has done only 38.2, i think it will do 61.8, i.e we will open lower then we shuld get a rise to 5240.
ReplyDelete