Nifty EOD 29.8.2011

Starting from previous post:

Q

Wave C from 5944 downwards--5 wave form--

W1=5944-5329=615

W2=5329-5740=411

W3= 5740-4720=1020(165% of W1)

SW1=5740-5497=243

SW2=5497-5702=205(85%)

SW3=5702-4720*=982(404% ) and capable of doing 4670(i.e. 425% of SW1)

Retracements,if they start now,should be treated as SW4 and minimum target should be 23.6% of SW3=231=4951.

UnQ

So SW4 began and what a beginning it was.

Now this SW4 has to be a 3 wave form ABC. Are we able to see a 3 wave form in the current run-up from 4720-4935? At least I am not. Then?

I believe we have chalked out A of SW4. How to be sure whether this A is over?Particularly now that even a 5 wave fractal for this A is also not quite identifiable.

All I can offer as an answer is that whenever A is a fast and furious retracement to an Extension, it is like this only and the end of A has to be more of a guesswork with total retracement as ABC being the only guide.

Now ,since SW2 retraced 85% of SW1--this SW4 is bound to be shallow , doing max 38.2% and since SW2 was a zig-zag,probability of SW4 being a Flat is very high. So the B that ensues downwards is more likely to be a deep one.

My "preferred count" believes that A is over and tomorrow we may test 4800 again(61.8% retracement of A=4720-4935=215)-- as B of SW4-- and remember,this B can do even 138.2% of A i.e. go below 4720 also.

So do not be in a hurry to go long again. Remember this B will do a 3 wave form. I am loaded with 4900PEs and would start unloading below 4825 (i.e. 50% retracement of A) and hope by then the wave-form will give clear indication of the destination for B.

Best of luck.

Raghu