Nifty EOD 23.8.2011

Continuing from my previous post

Q

Thus ,currently we have two probabilities:

Either the current upmove is W4 (retracement of W3=5740-4797=943);

Or it is (iv) of W3 (retracement of (iii)=5132-4797=335)

UnQ

Even the pattern of Nifty on 23.8.2011 has not categorically given the answer---may be on 24.8.2011 we shall get the answer.

Yesterday there was a hint at Nifty doing a 5 wave form from 4797 upwards and I gave a call to go long with Stop Loss at 4855. Although the call worked out perfectly,the ensuing 5th wave did not. The 5 wave form seen now is:

sw1:4797-4855 = 58 pts
sw2:4855-4810 = 45 pts
sw3:4810-4927 = 117 pts
sw4:4927-4863 = 64 pts
sw5:4863-4966=103 pts

Both sw3 and sw5 doing more than 1.618*sw1 make it unacceptable to me.:-((

Then I switched over to 30 min candles and saw these 5 waves as:

SW1=4796.3-4868.25=72

SW2=4868.25-4809=59

SW3=4809-4927.1=118.1(164% of SW1)

SW4=4927.1-4863.95=63

SW5=4864-4966=102(142% of SW1)

slightly better but not good enough to make me happy.

So went looking for fresh perspective,different from the 5 wave form and the most suitable IMHO is a DZZ wherein

W=4797-4868

a=4797-4855=58

b=4855-4818=37

c=4818-4868=50

X=4868-4809

a=4868-4818=50

b=4818-4843=25

c=4843-4809=34

Y=4809-4966

a=4809-4927=118

b=4927-4864=63

c=4864-4966=102

Now this WXY=4797-4966=169 looks better as (iv) of W3 (retracement of (iii)=5132-4797=335) having retraced 50% rather than W4(i.e retracement of W3=5740-4797=943), as in the latter retracement is hardly 18%.

Conclusion: In view of the above,I believe we are now in (v) of W3 which is likely to travel down by a length approx. equal to (i)=143 (pl have a look at my previous posts to see details of W3).It mis more likely now that we may go below 4797 to complete this (v) of W3.

So I advise for today go short with SL at 4967 for targets below 4797.

Best of luck.

Raghu