Q
So SW4 began and what a beginning it was.
Now this SW4 has to be a 3 wave form ABC. Are we able to see a 3 wave form in the current run-up from 4720-4935? At least I am not. Then?
I believe we have chalked out A of SW4. How to be sure whether this A is over?Particularly now that even a 5 wave fractal for this A is also not quite identifiable.
All I can offer as an answer is that whenever A is a fast and furious retracement to an Extension, it is like this only and the end of A has to be more of a guesswork with total retracement as ABC being the only guide.
Now ,since SW2 retraced 85% of SW1--this SW4 is bound to be shallow , doing max 38.2% and since SW2 was a zig-zag,probability of SW4 being a Flat is very high. So the B that ensues downwards is more likely to be a deep one.
UnQ
Obviously the presumption that A is over at 4935 was wrong.But there was very little clue as the fractals were absent. May be I should take the absence of fractals as great momentum-indicator and be more cautious in predicting end of the Motive . Fractals as a 5 subwave form for A are still absent but we have retraced 4720-4998=278 as a single wave(without having valid fractals). As I am treating this upmove as retracement for downmove 5702-4720=982 ,thereby retracing 28.4%.And as I still believe that a maximum of 38.2% is going to be retraced,can we believe that A is over now? Very difficult[particularly in light of brickbats that have been received recently ;-) ]
Thus let me mention that likely target of this retracement is 5095 (38.2%)but the likely form of this retracement (as ABC subwaves) is still not clear.Whether it comes out to be a zig-zag,a flat or a DZZ is still not clear to me.May be another day's of move can bring about more clarity. Till then what is there to write.Probabilities? A good number of these can be mentioned but I am not doing it as nothing is coming out convincingly as "preferred count". So lets wait for the pattern to become clearer---
Raghu
Dear Raghuji
ReplyDeleteMn C:2 5329 - 5740, is ruled out
A 5329 - 5598 = 269
B 5598 - 5196 = 402 1.494xA ?? (max B can do is 1.382xA for an expanded flat)
C 5196 - 5740 = 544 2.022 of B
Pls see the alternate count as follows:-
C:1 : 5944-5196 = 748 pts
C:2 : 5196-5702 = 506 pts (67.6% x C1)
C:3 : 5702-4720 = 980 pts (131.3% x C1)
C:4 : 4720-501 ** ( in play can do C:4=39%x C3, =5095,to meet rule of alternation)
C:5 : 5100-3514 (if C:5=1.618xC:3)
Pls check this count
urs
SMO
Why getting restless my dear? There are umpteen number of probabilities.Suddenly changing from an extended C:3 to new C:3?
ReplyDelete:-) Over-analysis will lead to--- you know where--
HHHHH
hhahaha... Raghuji,
ReplyDeleteIdeas are flowing today! ye dekhiye alternate count
CDA: 6358-2252
CDB: 2252-6339
CDC:
P1 : 6339-5177 (1162 pts)
P2 : 5177-5944 (767 pts, W2=66% xW1)
P3 : 5944-** in play
IM:1 : 5944-5196 = 748 pts
IM:2 : 5196-5702 = 506 pts (67.6% x 1)
IM:3 : 5702-4720 = 980 pts (131.3% x 1)
IM:4 : 4720-501 ** ( in play can do 4=39%x 3, =5095,to meet rule of alternation)
IM:5 : 5100-4355 (if IM:5= IM:1, makes PW3=1589 pts)
PW4 : 4355-4730 (PW4 = 23.6% x PW3)
PW5 : 4730-3568 (PW5=PW1=1162 pts)
HAHAHHAHAHA
EW is Magic , pure magic guru ji !
urs
Dear Raghu ji.
ReplyDeleteVery good sir. I like your appraoch towards waves. I am also watching this C4 from
4720 to ****.
Good luck.
Jeevan.
Dear Shri ji.
ReplyDeleteMy brother please go with waves and not next to waves. IMHO.
Good Luck.
Jeevan.
Hello Gentlemen
ReplyDeleteBouquets and brickbats are part of the game. Each day gives us our lessons and we move on with the school of life.
@SMO: The alternate count is also valid but Time, Price and Momentum need to be taken into account.
To put things in perspective for alternate count suggested....
CDA as per alternate count took 8 months
CDB as per alternate count took 24 months
CDC in play.......
P1 took 3 months
P2 took 2 months
P3 in play
IM1 took 2 months
IM2 took 3 weeks
IM3 took 1.5 months
The entire structure while good with price action, seems not to be adding up with time action.....
So whilst we all go back to the drawing board to put things in perspective, let us take each one at a time....
For now, one should use the dips to cover shorts if any and go for longs and ideally via futures.
Raghu ji can u please post a nifty graph with all the waves labelled, i have just started out with EW and want to confirm whether my labeling is correct or not
ReplyDeleteDear Nagraj ji.
ReplyDeleteGood saying.
The timestamp shown in post does not match with IST. Why please?
Many Regards.
Dear Waquar ji
ReplyDeleteEID MUBARAK.
EW is one of the best tool I have ever seen.
Wish you good luck.
Regards.
Jeevan.
@jeevanji: The time stamp shown here reflects the time in Paulo Alto where Google's head office is. It is Pacific Time Zone...
ReplyDeleteCheerz
Thank you dear brother.
ReplyDeleteWhere is brother Raghu ji?
Cheerz.
Good night all.
ReplyDeleteShri bhai to paagal ho rahe hai.. aisa lagta hai ki jaise naye bacche ko naya khilona mil jaye to khushi ke mare foolan nahi samata.. waise ho gaya hai Shri bhai :) :) :)
ReplyDeleteHahahahaha.. NOM shri bhai.. Just for fun.. but i love the way you are excited about EW. I wish i could learn the same way you have learnt. But Dilli door nahi mere bhai. Jald hi hum bhi bazooka pe bazooka denge. :) :) :)
All the best Shri bro.
Cheers!!
Sirji, Waiting for your further comments please! :-)
ReplyDeleteDear Raghu ji.
ReplyDeleteplease update.