Today's guiding light:
.png)
And as Y.a=5342-5161=181 took 36 hours, I doubt if Y.b would be over in a single day.
so expect expiry levels to be above 5200
At the end of pre-open session,we are at 5214+ i.e above 5212.2(above high of first set of 5 subwaves) so trailing stop-loss for longs should be put at 5194.
.png)
Shifting my SL for longs to 5184 for above illustrated probability.
11.37 AM
Although 5184 low is likely to remain for the day, this Y.b is open to many corrective forms and combos.
That is why I had mentioned the Fibo-retracement levels--62% being at 5273.
While I would be attempting to follow the pattern being taken by Y.b I may not be successful. So do keep in mind the Fibo levels---
12.59 PM
5222 likely--
.png)
2.14 PM
I would prefer labeling it this way:
.png)
3.05PM
Unable to find a cohesive pattern so far.
All I can say is that a retracement of Y.a=5342-5161 is going on as Y.b.
This Y.b can take any corrective form but we have to wait for 50% to 61.8% of retracement of Y.a before Y.c to the down can begin.
It has been a grinding and frustrating expiry day so far---
EOD:
Ending with the same chart(with which I had started):
.png)
And no discernible pattern for the ongoing Y.b could be identified.
Expiry day manipulations made it still more hazy--- tomorrow we may get a clearer picture.
Lets have a look at the Hourly Indicaters also:
While hourly price close in between the 5Hr.HEMA/LEMA,I remain inclined to Y.b retracing 50%=(5252) or 61.8%( =5273 ) of Y.a
Raghu
.png)
And as Y.a=5342-5161=181 took 36 hours, I doubt if Y.b would be over in a single day.
so expect expiry levels to be above 5200
At the end of pre-open session,we are at 5214+ i.e above 5212.2(above high of first set of 5 subwaves) so trailing stop-loss for longs should be put at 5194.
.png)
11.37 AM
Although 5184 low is likely to remain for the day, this Y.b is open to many corrective forms and combos.
That is why I had mentioned the Fibo-retracement levels--62% being at 5273.
While I would be attempting to follow the pattern being taken by Y.b I may not be successful. So do keep in mind the Fibo levels---
12.59 PM
5222 likely--
.png)
I would prefer labeling it this way:
.png)
Unable to find a cohesive pattern so far.
All I can say is that a retracement of Y.a=5342-5161 is going on as Y.b.
This Y.b can take any corrective form but we have to wait for 50% to 61.8% of retracement of Y.a before Y.c to the down can begin.
It has been a grinding and frustrating expiry day so far---
EOD:
Ending with the same chart(with which I had started):
.png)
Expiry day manipulations made it still more hazy--- tomorrow we may get a clearer picture.
Lets have a look at the Hourly Indicaters also:
Raghu
Good Morning Dear Raghu ji
ReplyDeleteThat means Y(b) can take as much as minimum 2-3 trading sessions?
As you said Y(a) took 36 hours so now that retracement is on the way.
If 50 to 61.8% retracement comes around 5250 to 5273 then it should also retrace via time also.
50% of 36 hours - 18 hours means 3 days at least.
Please guide me i am wrong anywhere.
Regards
In these day's of algo-trading,time analysis goes awry many a times. Give more weightage to price and remain guided by that---mentioned the time so that slow mkt movements may not bore you--
Delete:D
Thank you sir.
ReplyDeleteRegards
thank u guruji for reply to my q
ReplyDeleteguruji,
ReplyDeletei have a question 3rd extended vis a vis 5th minimum requirement complete. can there still be a probablity that 5th is continuint and extending with 5.2 a flat and 5218 not breached?? 5.3 started frm 5215
Yes that probabilty is open.
DeleteHowever seen with Hr. TA which showed negative price-RSI divergence while forming new low at 5161 ---
gusthakhi maaf guruji.
Deleteits positive divergence -ve divergence price makes hh
indicator lh
While price made a low(at 5161) vis-a-vis 24/4 low of 5181;RSI did not go below the low made on 24/4.
DeleteThat is what I meant---baaki aap isko kya kahoge,ye aap jaano-- :D
i understood the meaning guruji. its positive
Deletedivergence. negative is opposite. because of positive divergence in indicator u r giving more weightage to y.a over count and not continuing count.
GURU JI WHEN SHORTS LL CONFIRM? IS 5184 CONFIRM TO ENTER SHORT OR 5171 I.E. BELOW 80% RET.
ReplyDeleteSir
ReplyDeleteYour analysis is the best i could find. One suggestion - as you foucs down on near term charts, pl add labels that you put on long term chart to this near term chart (if applicable). Will immensely help understand near term chart better. Regards
guruji can it be possible
ReplyDeleteyb.a5161-5215
yb.b 5215-5183
yb.c going as diagonal
Quite possible but label them as simple abc(and not Ya,Yb,Yc)because this way Yb shall not be able to retrace even 38%
ReplyDeleteok guruji but min 23% done for correction of 5 wave down
ReplyDeleteFor this degree,that should not be sufficient. Corelate with overbot zone in Hr. chart--that would help-- also c=min 0.62a should be done--
Deletepoint taken guruji
ReplyDeletea 5161-5215-54
c 5184-5210 -26
not possible.
thanks for continued guidance
Sir
ReplyDeleteWhy do u think 5342-5161 should be retraced above 5215
5 waves done at 5161 correction over at 5215 (30%)yesterday
A 5161 - 5196
B 5196 - 5161
C 5161 - 5215
Today
Why not
1 5216 - 5183
2 5183 - 5210 (83% of 1)
3 5210 - running
5 waves up to 5110
Kindly peruse and comment
Dear Sameer,
ReplyDeleteI have given enough details and hints to answer the questions raised by you.May be you have not gone through them.
1. If you think that a wave(in this case 5342-5161) that took 36 hours to play out can be retraced in 4 hours flat--how can I comment on that?;
2. If you think B=5196-5161 was a 3 wave corrective,what can I say?;
Similar issues are there in other labels also---
so what to do?
I have always advised -- "make you own mistake"--- pl follow your counts and set up your trades accordingly.
Learn a concept,from me or anybody else, but understand it yourself.
Beat of luck.
----Best of luck----
Deletesorry for typo error--
:D