Trading Nifty on 30-04-2012

Where do we stand?

Now it is this Y in focus - from 5342 downwards:
I has to be a 3 wave form --Ya,Yb,Yc.
Y.a could have chosen to be either a 3 wave form or a 5 wave form.
One Impulse to the down have got played--
Question remains whether this was Ya or only a of Ya.
Answer comes only with the end of the wave  and till then many Probabilities exist.

What I do here is to analyse various Probabilities and put forward my most preferred Count.
I request all my friends to bear in mind this particular aspect of EW analysis. The mere fact that I mention here one particular Count dose not mean that other Probabilities have ceased to exist ---
For example:
When this Ya did
(i)=5342-5246=96
(ii)=5246-5310=64
(iii)=5310-5180=130
(iv)=5180-5236=56
(v)=5326 downwards could have done 96*1.62=155 points to become an extended fifth subwave.
But it turned out to do only 75 points so as to make the 3rd subwave an extended one vis-a-vis the 5th.

And we got a 5 wave Impulse as:

(i)=5342-5246=96
(ii)=5246-5310=64
(iii)=5310-5180=130
(iv)=5180-5236=56
(v)=5236-5161=75
 But has this Impulse ended at 5161?
Had the retracing wave to this 5342-5161 gone above 5236 (beginning of (v) I would have said YES ! It has ended.
But currently I cannot say that emphatically.


This (v) from 5236 downwards may be doing its oscillations and end up as a diagonal instead of simple impulse 5236-5161.
However, we have an Important Clue here.
As the entire premise of this Ya= 5 wave Impulse 5342-5161 is based upon (iii) being extended vis-a-vis (v), the moment (v) acquires a length where (iii) becomes less than 1.618*(v), we have to conclude that (v)=5236 downwards did not end and is continuing to play out to do an EXTENDED FIFTH.
 And what is that point?
Lets calculate again:This time more minutely:

(i)=5342-5246=96
(ii)=5246-5310=64
(iii)=5310.45-5180.55=129.9
(iv)=5180.55-5235.9=55.35
(v)=5235.9 downwards---
can at the most do 129.9/1.618=80.3 for this Probability to remain valid.That gives us a threshold of 5235.9-80.3=5155.6
As we have already gone below 5155.6( we touched 5154.5 on Friday) so the  Probability of Ya still continuing [ with (v) doing a Diagonal] does not exist.


Then what are the other Probabilities:
Probability 1:
Ya=5342-5161=181

(i)=5342-5246=96
(ii)=5246-5310=64
(iii)=5310-5180=130
(iv)=5180-5236=56
(v)=5236-5161=75
Yb=5161-5223
Yc=5223 downwards
(i)=5223-5155
(ii)=5155-5216( already retraved 90% of (i)

And that makes this probability a suspect.And though a formal invalidation would come with a tick above 5223, I am getting more inclined towards the Probability mentioned below:
Probability 2:

Ya=5342-downwards continues

(i)=5342-5246=96
(ii)=5246-5310=64
(iii)=5310-5180=130
(iv)=5180-5236=56
(v)=5236- downwards continues as a 3*3*3*3*3 diagonal( labelled sw1,sw2,sw3,sw4,sw5 by me):
sw1=5236-5155=81
5236-5161
5161-5223
5223-5155
sw2=5155 upwards in progress, may go above 5223 but if goes above 5236 then this Probability would be invalidated.
sw3=  to come down as a 3 wave form---
On charts it would appear as:

Then how to initiate Trade?
I believe the bottom has to be found as yet and Shorts to be preferred.
SL for shorts should be 5236
Target should be below 5155.

9.31 AM
Got crystalized.
5236 breached means Ya was over at 5154.5
Yb in play.
61.8% retracement of Ya=5342-5154.5=187.5 would mean 116=5270
50%=5248

Ya=5342-5154.5=187.5
5342-5291.5=50.5
5291.5-5341.5=50
5341.5-5161.1=180.4
5161.1-5235.9=74.8
5235.9-5154.5=81.4
And at this moment I must mention the name of SF--Super Falcon who had mentioned it though in some other context.


9.47 AM
Y.b in play:
Target is 5270 as 3 wave form say Yb(a),Yb(b) and Yb(c)
Yb(a) is nearing its completion as a 5 wave form:
5154.5-5185.45=31
5185.45-5163.8=21.65
5163.8-5199.2=35.4
5199.2-5186.05=13.15
5186.05-5251.2*=65.15

It shall be followed by Yb(b) to the down maximum upto 5170.(optimum 5200)
Then Yb(c) upwards would play out.
So make your trading plans accordingly.

10.14AM

Intraday scalps:shorts can be created below 5233.7 for targets 5200/5192
11.45 AM
Counting waves is a good time-pass also:

12.00 N
Now 5247.9 would confirm whether Ya(a) has found its top or not

Or one can try catching the top in between 5263-5267.

12.23 PM

Top for the day formed . Now bottom to be found:

Target 5200/5192

SL 5262.15

1.30 PM

And mind the channel also:

2.04 PM

Based upon channel, intra-day scalpers should book profit on their shorts:

one round below 5222 is likely: TSL for shorts at 5235.6

So Yb(a)=5155-5262=107

Yb(b)=5262-5222=40

Yb(c)= minimum 0.62*Yb(a)=67=5297

3.12 PM

3.23 PM

EOD

So the suspense remains---whether Yb(b) over or not? It can still keep playing as a double zig-zag( or any other combo in following manner:

So all longs must keep a stop-loss at 5230

Raghu