Why downmove ?
-Because Impulse looks over at 5378.
How?
-Three reasons:
1. wave form looks complete;
2.Nifty has closed below 5hour ema showing beginning of downmove;
3.one 5 wave form to the down has been completed.
.png)
.png)
Now for the retracement to this Impulse(=5136-5378=242),likely targets are:
38.2%=5285
50%=5157
61.8%=5228
Max 80%=5184
As per EW, in case of a 5th wave extension, the retracement goes upto lower end of subwave2 of 5th wave which in this case is at 5264
Also in case of an ending diagonal, the retracement does a minimum of lower end of subwave2 of the diagonal which in this case is at 5284
Also helpful would be the 5DMA and 20 DMA which are currently at 5268 and 5295 respectively.
Incidentally, a gap down would lead to the formation of an Evening Star---
.png)
9.27 AM
Failure to do 162% by 3rd wave.
One three wave form done.
5378-5318=60=24.7% of retracement of Impulse 5136-5378=242 done as a 3 wave form.
SL for shorts at 5365 is a must.
.png)
11.50 AM
.png)
.png)
.png)
-Because Impulse looks over at 5378.
How?
-Three reasons:
1. wave form looks complete;
2.Nifty has closed below 5hour ema showing beginning of downmove;
3.one 5 wave form to the down has been completed.
.png)
.png)
Now for the retracement to this Impulse(=5136-5378=242),likely targets are:
38.2%=5285
50%=5157
61.8%=5228
Max 80%=5184
As per EW, in case of a 5th wave extension, the retracement goes upto lower end of subwave2 of 5th wave which in this case is at 5264
Also in case of an ending diagonal, the retracement does a minimum of lower end of subwave2 of the diagonal which in this case is at 5284
Also helpful would be the 5DMA and 20 DMA which are currently at 5268 and 5295 respectively.
Incidentally, a gap down would lead to the formation of an Evening Star---
.png)
Failure to do 162% by 3rd wave.
One three wave form done.
5378-5318=60=24.7% of retracement of Impulse 5136-5378=242 done as a 3 wave form.
SL for shorts at 5365 is a must.
.png)
.png)
Stop loss for shorts now at 5336.1
1.25 PM
One of the probabilities---Doble zig-zag is coming to an end:
.png)
2.30 PM
Although Double Zig-zag as shown above is over, further downside's probability is still open in following form:
.png)
Enthusiastic bulls,who have already taken long position must keep a stop loss at day's low.
A tick above 5326,however would lead me into long position now--
EOD:
Have initiated longs as I believe the corrective to Impulse (=5136-5378=242) is over at 5305.35 as a double zig-zag( shown in one of the charts above.
Raghu
guruji ,
ReplyDeletevery detailed and educative presentation thanks
Raghu u mean over at 5305.35 isnt it and not 5205.
ReplyDeleteThe thing is does EW provide u with the confidence to hold longs over a four day holiday when global markets are open?
Not casting any aspersions on the analysis - it is superb as usual.
Thanks for pointing out the typo( corrected now).And casting aspersions on analysis is welcome---I donot wish this blog to become a monologue.
DeleteGoing long despite 4 days holiday is because initiating a position is not a one time phenomena-- one has to keep on adding or reducing as per the direction of the mkt.
As currently we are in an upmove,so initiating longs at dips is a good idea and series end is still away--
Raghu ji,
ReplyDeletein the first chart(5136-5378), w1 is leading diagonal. w5 is ending diagonal..is it allowed to have both diagonal in a wave?..please enlight!!
Thanks
Sekar
What more is there to enlighten?
DeleteIf it is forbidden somewhere,do let me know.