Gave today's "Special Trading Session" a miss as usually these sessions are non-events and I had some errands pending.
And now I find today's session changing the whole contours of labels:
Till yesterday, of various probabilities,I was inclined towards following counts:
But today's candles have changed the scenario and brought into forefront following scenario where Ya is still continuing:
More of it in Monday morning post---
Raghu
And now I find today's session changing the whole contours of labels:
Till yesterday, of various probabilities,I was inclined towards following counts:
But today's candles have changed the scenario and brought into forefront following scenario where Ya is still continuing:
More of it in Monday morning post---
Raghu
Dear Raghuvanshi ji
ReplyDeleteCan you please define Y(a) targets ?
I mean where its likely to end.
Because earlier you said it was Y(b)& Y(c) has started.
Any reason which prompted you to alter it as Y(a) again?
& if its Y(a) then does this Y(a) will take support at 200 dma or at the line coming from december low?
Regards
Dear Sony,
DeleteI have not altered anything but based upon today's Nifty action,brought to the fore another Probability.
As a EW follower,one must understand that the wave Y started from 5342 downwards has to be a 3 wave form. More than that nothing can be said. The first of these 3 waves(labeled as Ya by me) could come down as a 3 wave or a 5 wave form. Once it has turned out to be a 5 wave form,one thing has become clear that Y( as a whole) shall play out as a zig-zag.
Now coming to Y.a--I was taking as a 5 waves completed at 5161 in following manner:
5342-5246=96
5246-5310=64
5310.45-5180.55=129.9
5180.55-5235.9=55.35
5235.9-5161.1=74.8
And Y.b=5161-5223
Y.c=5223--downwrds as a 5 wave form(either Impulse or diagonal)
(i)=5223-5155=68
(ii) normally should not have retraced more than 80% of (i) not above 5210. but today it tested 5216+ that is , it retraced 90%. Though theoretically (ii) can retrace upto 99.9% of (i) but whenever the retracement becomes more than 80% chances of a diagonal in ction become very high.
One Probability is that the last subwave of Y.a(=5235.9-5161.1) might not have ended and continuing as a diagonal.
Second Probability is that Y.c might have started( as per our earlier labels) and (i) of Y.c may be playing out as a diagonal.
(Hope all this is not confusing but clarifying).
In nutshell, I wish to say that the going up of Nifty above 5210 has given some indications that the last move to the down as Yc may take some more time.
Thank you For Replying Dear Raghuvanshi ji,
DeleteA little confusing but understandable, i am just a novice learner.
Reading the book many a times, but will take time to understand correctives.
much appreciated reply.
Regards
Dear Sony,
DeleteThe best way to remove confusion is to keep the chart alongside and mark the labels--unless you do it ACTUALLY-- clarity will be very difficult. Mostly we try to make a mental note of it and donot mark it ACTUALLY THEN & THERE--and here lies the fault.
All discussions should be marked on chart and then deciphered---only THAT will make it fruitful--
Dear Raghu ji, One doubt....The down move from 5235 (from where you are considering vth as diagonal) has all downward fractals as impulse and upward fractals as corrective. That is giving a 5-3-5-3-5 structure, instead of 3-3-3-3-3 at 5th.....
ReplyDeleteThe rise today is also looking like a 5-3-5 ZZ...and looks completed.
Following these labels, could it be possible that the Y.c started at 5222 and its sw2 finished today. sw3 may be due towards a lower level?
Dear SF,
DeleteNice to find you here !! :D
What you say remains a probability .
However I hace taken that to the background and brought the other one in front because in my observation a retracement og more than 80 percent mostly leads to a diagonal.
And it has been my very regular observation that whenever the price action moves ahead of time action,the last wave becomes a diagonal wherein the prices donot change much by time action keeps ticking. Infact,if you see closely, if a diagonal indeed occurs it would be a sw1>sw3>sw5 which so far is 75>68> ??? even if we take it to be 67 then the fall would be to 5216-67=5149 max.
That means market will be consolidating further in this 5300-5150 range for some more time to come as Y.b
As far as diagonal being a 5*3*5*3*5 --that has become a very common occurence--and I donot find any issue there---
And I must add here that Ya as a 5 wave form:
Delete5342-5246=96
5246-5310=64
5310.45-5180.55=129.9
5180.55-5235.9=55.35
5235.9-5161.1=74.8 was taken as a five wave form primarily because the sw3 was an extended vis-a- vis sw5(129.9/74.8=173.7%) and for the same criteria to remain valid this sw5 should not be below 5155( even now it is a touch and go) .
So one tick below 5155 and we would be ON with the Probability of Yc having started from 5223-- mentioned by you--
NSE site indicated the lowest tick at 154.5, which invalidates the above counts as an impulse. That induced me into having a closer look into the move from 5342. You have already seen the alternate, which I have posted in my note. The doubt was on LD and ED...which looked out of place as fifth fractal in 5-3-5-3-5 form.
DeleteAnd I keep visiting your blog,whenever I can. Just prefer the interaction elsewhere.
At this place, it becomes difficult to refer back after few days.