Bug,bogey or false spike---
But it has brought the Alternate Count to the forefront.
I had been mentioning that C from 5136 upwards, though had a target of 5817 , but would not be a smooth Impulse as A(=4531-5629) was.
So now taking C as a 3*3*3*3*3 Diagonal:
C1=5136-5378=242 ended at 5342:
Sw1=5136-5378
Sw2=5378-5184(ending at 5190)
Sw3=5190-5342
C2=5378-5246* in play and likely to go below 5190
a=5342-5246
b=5246-5298*
5246-5280
5280-5258
5258-5298*
c= to begin and take us to 5190
Inserted at 10.00PM/20.4.2012:
EW Probabilities donot leave you alone. While having dinner,I was thinking why try to find a Diagonal C (3*3*3*3*3) at the beginning itself? Usually Diagonals assert themselves towards end of 3rd wave only.
And then came to my mind Piyush Sharda and his query:
Q
if we still are in the corrective wxy 5629-5136,
x 5136-5378
UnQ
And my answer was:
Q
X has to be a corrective form.
But 5136-5378 is an Impulse so at the most it can be X.a.
But what has brought about these Alternatives( with a truncated SW3) to the fore and taken the other Alternative(C1=5136-5378;C2=5378-5184;C3 =5190 onwards in play ) into background?
Taking this Alternative forward we see:
C1=5136-5378
C2=5378-5184(ended at 5190);
C3=5190-onwards in play
(i)=5190-5342=152
(ii)=5342-5246=96(
(iii)=5246-5298* and should test 5500---
Problem lies in this (ii)---
outwardly it appears okay as it has retraced 63% of (i) but within it:
a=5342-5291=51
b=5291-5341.5
c=5341.5-5246=96(188%) which exceeds 165% permitted for c in expanded flats
One can always argue about bogey spike but it does affect Counts---
Confirmation of labels would come from two points:
above 5313
or
below 5258
Above 5313 means
C1=5136-5378
C2=5378-5184(ended at 5190);
C3=5190-onwards in play
(i)=5190-5342=152
(ii)=5342-5246=96(
(iii)=5246-5298* and should test 5500----
in play
Below 5258 means
A=4531-5629=1098
B=5629----in play as WXY
W=5629-5136
X=5136-5378( with truncated C which ended at 5342)
Y started at 5342 and shall go below 5136----
Raghu
But it has brought the Alternate Count to the forefront.
I had been mentioning that C from 5136 upwards, though had a target of 5817 , but would not be a smooth Impulse as A(=4531-5629) was.
So now taking C as a 3*3*3*3*3 Diagonal:
C1=5136-5378=242 ended at 5342:
Sw1=5136-5378
Sw2=5378-5184(ending at 5190)
Sw3=5190-5342
C2=5378-5246* in play and likely to go below 5190
a=5342-5246
b=5246-5298*
5246-5280
5280-5258
5258-5298*
c= to begin and take us to 5190
Inserted at 10.00PM/20.4.2012:
EW Probabilities donot leave you alone. While having dinner,I was thinking why try to find a Diagonal C (3*3*3*3*3) at the beginning itself? Usually Diagonals assert themselves towards end of 3rd wave only.
And then came to my mind Piyush Sharda and his query:
Q
if we still are in the corrective wxy 5629-5136,
x 5136-5378
UnQ
And my answer was:
Q
X has to be a corrective form.
But 5136-5378 is an Impulse so at the most it can be X.a.
UnQ
And if it has to be a truncated sw3 then why C1 and not X?
Ha-Ha-Ha--- that makes more sense:
And the result was following Chart--dedicated to Piyush:
But what has brought about these Alternatives( with a truncated SW3) to the fore and taken the other Alternative(C1=5136-5378;C2=5378-5184;C3 =5190 onwards in play ) into background?
Taking this Alternative forward we see:
C1=5136-5378
C2=5378-5184(ended at 5190);
C3=5190-onwards in play
(i)=5190-5342=152
(ii)=5342-5246=96(
(iii)=5246-5298* and should test 5500---
Problem lies in this (ii)---
outwardly it appears okay as it has retraced 63% of (i) but within it:
a=5342-5291=51
b=5291-5341.5
c=5341.5-5246=96(188%) which exceeds 165% permitted for c in expanded flats
One can always argue about bogey spike but it does affect Counts---
Confirmation of labels would come from two points:
above 5313
or
below 5258
Above 5313 means
C1=5136-5378
C2=5378-5184(ended at 5190);
C3=5190-onwards in play
(i)=5190-5342=152
(ii)=5342-5246=96(
(iii)=5246-5298* and should test 5500----
in play
Below 5258 means
A=4531-5629=1098
B=5629----in play as WXY
W=5629-5136
X=5136-5378( with truncated C which ended at 5342)
Y started at 5342 and shall go below 5136----
Raghu
guruji,
ReplyDeletekhate waqt bhi waves?? waise aap se bahut sikha hai guruji.aapki labelling dekh kar aisa lagta hai ew is such a powerful tool and can be successfully used in market otherwise thodi bahut ew ki knowledge dimag ke kone main bas padi thi. sab aapka motivation hai mera kuch nahi.bahut koshish ke baad bhi 5313 ka
rahasya samajh nahi aaya. if 5342-5246 is one of those imperfect 5 waves it can be retraced by 99% also as u say.
5313 ka rahasya: upmove from 5246 has to be 3 wave(for Y to have started from 5342).It has already done
Delete5246-5280=34
5280-5258=22
5258-5298*=40 if it keeps on moving up and goes above 1.62*34(=5246-5280)then this upmove shall not remain a 3 wave and become a five wave.As 1.62*34=55+5258=5313-------
And you are correct,till 5342 is breached we can not be 100% sure------this is the typical ambiguity in sideways market--
Dear Raghu ji, Should we not have the downside target of 5050 roughly, at 61.8% of 5629-5136?
ReplyDeleteDear SF ji,
DeleteI would not take that long a shot in this sideways market. Just keep in mind the probablity that current downmove may be a retracement of only 5190-5342 which at 61.8% stands at 5248.
Form wise( as 5342-5246 was an Impulse) it can do:
5342-5246=96
5246-5298=52
5298-60(0.62.96)=5228
then up again---
so look for deep fall only below 5222 which would mean more than 80% of 5190-5342--
dhanyawaad guruji. some time after posting my question i had this thought
ReplyDeletebut like u say many waves get subsumed in gapups gap downs so maybe
part of zz or dzz gets subsumed in it.