Everybody discusses:
Europe in green/red
Budget is good bad
RBI announces rate cut but says no further rate cuts this tear
banks will not pass on rate cuts
sell in May and go way
blah-blah- bla---
No one looks at charts---- why?
head-ache hota hai------
And even if charts are telling something--- my broker's report says that India's growth story is not being bought so ----
So many opinions-----goli maar bheje me-----bheja shor karta hai----
On one of my friends recommendations I visited Shri Ilango's blog and yesterday's closing blog comments were SUPER--- hats off !!!
As I mentioned in my yesterday's EOD post, the Probability of Exp Flat shall become a Probability below 5311;
Below 5311 means we shall go below 5291,most probably upto 5280 and then come up to test 5400.
Otherwise 5400 may be tested right away---
Best of luck----
Probabilities at 12.25 PM
1.17 PM
That means we are not going below 5300
And failed C( i.e c failing to go below a) would mean a very fast upmove
Now I would suggest creating longs in 5305-5310 range with SL at 5299 and an upmove of 150 points--
2.30 PM
SL hit at 5299 and what a hit it was-----
We must wait for EOD before taking any further stance--
They say some bug hit and Nifty Futures hit 5000 (from 5325) in one tick----???///
Now it has been disclosed that some bulk position squaring off in Infy led to Futures showing 5k---
Should I count it as
C from 5136 upwards:
sw1=5136-5378
sw2=5378-5184(ending at 5190)
Sw3=5190 upwards in play:
(i)=5190-5342
(ii)=5342-5246*
a=5342-5191=51
b=5191-5342
c=5342-5246=96*(188%)
Prechter says in an expanded flat ,c can do upto 165%
Our c has done much more---
But there are question-marks over this spike-----
I leave the decision to you
Alternatively, if we take C from 5136 and and consider C as a diagonal(3*3*3*3*3)
Sw1=5136-5378=242
Sw2=5378-5184=194
Sw3=5190-5342=152(0.628 of Sw1) then a 3 wave form is complete and I would call it C1 of Diagonal:
That is:
C1=5136-5378=242 (but ended at 5342)
C2=5342- downwards
a=5342-5246=96
b=5246-5298*
c=5298- minimum 0.62*a=60=5238 but ideally c=a=96=5202
C3 to come up again----
As Sw3 of this C1 was truncated(i.e. failed to go above Sw1 high of 5378) so it should retrace itself fully i.e C1=5136-5378=242(but ended at 5342)
C2 should retrace it upto 5190----
On charts this Count would appear as:
I have been mentioning this Probability side by side as I believe that C is not going to be a smooth Impulse like A.
EW wise this Count makes more sense but would be confirmed only below 5258
Now from where this 5258 came?
If this fall as C2 from 5342 is seen then
a=5342-5246=98 an impulse
b=5246-5298 as a 3 wave
5246-5280=34
5280-5258=22
5258-5298=40
c an Impulse or diagonal to the down again
So below 5258 go short for target 5190
but if we do not go below 5258 and tick above 5313 then go long at all dips.Obviously those who are still long should keep their SL at 5258 or wait for Nifty to go below 5190 and come up again to make money.
Raghu
Europe in green/red
Budget is good bad
RBI announces rate cut but says no further rate cuts this tear
banks will not pass on rate cuts
sell in May and go way
blah-blah- bla---
No one looks at charts---- why?
head-ache hota hai------
And even if charts are telling something--- my broker's report says that India's growth story is not being bought so ----
So many opinions-----goli maar bheje me-----bheja shor karta hai----
On one of my friends recommendations I visited Shri Ilango's blog and yesterday's closing blog comments were SUPER--- hats off !!!
As I mentioned in my yesterday's EOD post, the Probability of Exp Flat shall become a Probability below 5311;
Below 5311 means we shall go below 5291,most probably upto 5280 and then come up to test 5400.
Otherwise 5400 may be tested right away---
Best of luck----
Probabilities at 12.25 PM
And failed C( i.e c failing to go below a) would mean a very fast upmove
Now I would suggest creating longs in 5305-5310 range with SL at 5299 and an upmove of 150 points--
2.30 PM
SL hit at 5299 and what a hit it was-----
We must wait for EOD before taking any further stance--
They say some bug hit and Nifty Futures hit 5000 (from 5325) in one tick----???///
Now it has been disclosed that some bulk position squaring off in Infy led to Futures showing 5k---
Should I count it as
C from 5136 upwards:
sw1=5136-5378
sw2=5378-5184(ending at 5190)
Sw3=5190 upwards in play:
(i)=5190-5342
(ii)=5342-5246*
a=5342-5191=51
b=5191-5342
c=5342-5246=96*(188%)
Prechter says in an expanded flat ,c can do upto 165%
Our c has done much more---
But there are question-marks over this spike-----
I leave the decision to you
Alternatively, if we take C from 5136 and and consider C as a diagonal(3*3*3*3*3)
Sw1=5136-5378=242
Sw2=5378-5184=194
Sw3=5190-5342=152(0.628 of Sw1) then a 3 wave form is complete and I would call it C1 of Diagonal:
That is:
C1=5136-5378=242 (but ended at 5342)
C2=5342- downwards
a=5342-5246=96
b=5246-5298*
c=5298- minimum 0.62*a=60=5238 but ideally c=a=96=5202
C3 to come up again----
As Sw3 of this C1 was truncated(i.e. failed to go above Sw1 high of 5378) so it should retrace itself fully i.e C1=5136-5378=242(but ended at 5342)
C2 should retrace it upto 5190----
On charts this Count would appear as:
I have been mentioning this Probability side by side as I believe that C is not going to be a smooth Impulse like A.
EW wise this Count makes more sense but would be confirmed only below 5258
Now from where this 5258 came?
If this fall as C2 from 5342 is seen then
a=5342-5246=98 an impulse
b=5246-5298 as a 3 wave
5246-5280=34
5280-5258=22
5258-5298=40
c an Impulse or diagonal to the down again
So below 5258 go short for target 5190
but if we do not go below 5258 and tick above 5313 then go long at all dips.Obviously those who are still long should keep their SL at 5258 or wait for Nifty to go below 5190 and come up again to make money.
Raghu
guruji, one probablity coming to my mind till 5378 not decisively crossed what can spoil the bullish case.
ReplyDeleteif we still are in the corrective wxy 5629-5136,
x 5136-5378 then a triangle forming. 5342-5291=51, 5342-(1.62*51)= 5255. if 5255 gets breached all going to 5180-5150 levels high possiblity. does this possiblity follow all ur guidelines??
X has to be a corrective form.
ReplyDeleteBut 5136-5378 is an Impulse so at the most it can be X.a.
:D
ok guruji. i thought it wud fit in with modern algo trading exceptions of ew . it it can be only xa then this may be xb. a has 3 wave form 5378-5184/5190 but after 5190 its more of impulse without any 3 wave form. so this wxyxz probablity very low .
ReplyDeletebut the best part of ew even those who labelled from 5629 as triangles say e truncated 5184 and now breakout.
jaaki rahi bhaawna jaisee----
DeletePrabhu moorat tin dekhi taisee---
GURU JI....SPOT NIFTY 80 % RET OF 5190 TO 5342
ReplyDeletesome confusion remains in mkt.My SLs for longs got hit---- shall wait for EOD---
DeleteThis comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteAll technicals fail when Nifty takes whipsaws for whatsoever reason.The fall is so rapid and furious that stoploss can not be applied.
ReplyDeleteIt is much safer to play whipsaws then technicals.Whipsaws do happen
about 10 times in a month.
what is your opinion sir.
It is a subjective matter wherein you have already given your opinion.
DeleteSL is used for two purposes:
1. The premise of starting a trade( in my case EW counts) may be wrong and triggering the SL is a confirmation of that:
2. Protect capital.
I have been using stop loss and shall continue to use it.
Even today I initiated longs at Nifty Spot 5307 and SL triggered at 5199(Spot) so escaped with only 8 points loss.
And now at EOD can plan my trade again---koooool-- isn't it?
And if you find a method to play whipsaws,and making money in it, its kooooooler---stick to it-----HHHHHHHHHHHHH