Trading Nifty on 30-04-2012

Where do we stand?

Now it is this Y in focus - from 5342 downwards:
I has to be a 3 wave form --Ya,Yb,Yc.
Y.a could have chosen to be either a 3 wave form or a 5 wave form.
One Impulse to the down have got played--
Question remains whether this was Ya or only a of Ya.
Answer comes only with the end of the wave  and till then many Probabilities exist.

What I do here is to analyse various Probabilities and put forward my most preferred Count.
I request all my friends to bear in mind this particular aspect of EW analysis. The mere fact that I mention here one particular Count dose not mean that other Probabilities have ceased to exist ---
For example:
When this Ya did
(i)=5342-5246=96
(ii)=5246-5310=64
(iii)=5310-5180=130
(iv)=5180-5236=56
(v)=5326 downwards could have done 96*1.62=155 points to become an extended fifth subwave.
But it turned out to do only 75 points so as to make the 3rd subwave an extended one vis-a-vis the 5th.

And we got a 5 wave Impulse as:

(i)=5342-5246=96
(ii)=5246-5310=64
(iii)=5310-5180=130
(iv)=5180-5236=56
(v)=5236-5161=75
 But has this Impulse ended at 5161?
Had the retracing wave to this 5342-5161 gone above 5236 (beginning of (v) I would have said YES ! It has ended.
But currently I cannot say that emphatically.


This (v) from 5236 downwards may be doing its oscillations and end up as a diagonal instead of simple impulse 5236-5161.
However, we have an Important Clue here.
As the entire premise of this Ya= 5 wave Impulse 5342-5161 is based upon (iii) being extended vis-a-vis (v), the moment (v) acquires a length where (iii) becomes less than 1.618*(v), we have to conclude that (v)=5236 downwards did not end and is continuing to play out to do an EXTENDED FIFTH.
 And what is that point?
Lets calculate again:This time more minutely:

(i)=5342-5246=96
(ii)=5246-5310=64
(iii)=5310.45-5180.55=129.9
(iv)=5180.55-5235.9=55.35
(v)=5235.9 downwards---
can at the most do 129.9/1.618=80.3 for this Probability to remain valid.That gives us a threshold of 5235.9-80.3=5155.6
As we have already gone below 5155.6( we touched 5154.5 on Friday) so the  Probability of Ya still continuing [ with (v) doing a Diagonal] does not exist.


Then what are the other Probabilities:
Probability 1:
Ya=5342-5161=181

(i)=5342-5246=96
(ii)=5246-5310=64
(iii)=5310-5180=130
(iv)=5180-5236=56
(v)=5236-5161=75
Yb=5161-5223
Yc=5223 downwards
(i)=5223-5155
(ii)=5155-5216( already retraved 90% of (i)

And that makes this probability a suspect.And though a formal invalidation would come with a tick above 5223, I am getting more inclined towards the Probability mentioned below:
Probability 2:

Ya=5342-downwards continues

(i)=5342-5246=96
(ii)=5246-5310=64
(iii)=5310-5180=130
(iv)=5180-5236=56
(v)=5236- downwards continues as a 3*3*3*3*3 diagonal( labelled sw1,sw2,sw3,sw4,sw5 by me):
sw1=5236-5155=81
5236-5161
5161-5223
5223-5155
sw2=5155 upwards in progress, may go above 5223 but if goes above 5236 then this Probability would be invalidated.
sw3=  to come down as a 3 wave form---
On charts it would appear as:

Then how to initiate Trade?
I believe the bottom has to be found as yet and Shorts to be preferred.
SL for shorts should be 5236
Target should be below 5155.

9.31 AM
Got crystalized.
5236 breached means Ya was over at 5154.5
Yb in play.
61.8% retracement of Ya=5342-5154.5=187.5 would mean 116=5270
50%=5248

Ya=5342-5154.5=187.5
5342-5291.5=50.5
5291.5-5341.5=50
5341.5-5161.1=180.4
5161.1-5235.9=74.8
5235.9-5154.5=81.4
And at this moment I must mention the name of SF--Super Falcon who had mentioned it though in some other context.


9.47 AM
Y.b in play:
Target is 5270 as 3 wave form say Yb(a),Yb(b) and Yb(c)
Yb(a) is nearing its completion as a 5 wave form:
5154.5-5185.45=31
5185.45-5163.8=21.65
5163.8-5199.2=35.4
5199.2-5186.05=13.15
5186.05-5251.2*=65.15

It shall be followed by Yb(b) to the down maximum upto 5170.(optimum 5200)
Then Yb(c) upwards would play out.
So make your trading plans accordingly.

10.14AM

Intraday scalps:shorts can be created below 5233.7 for targets 5200/5192
11.45 AM
Counting waves is a good time-pass also:

12.00 N
Now 5247.9 would confirm whether Ya(a) has found its top or not

Or one can try catching the top in between 5263-5267.

12.23 PM

Top for the day formed . Now bottom to be found:

Target 5200/5192

SL 5262.15

1.30 PM

And mind the channel also:

2.04 PM

Based upon channel, intra-day scalpers should book profit on their shorts:

one round below 5222 is likely: TSL for shorts at 5235.6

So Yb(a)=5155-5262=107

Yb(b)=5262-5222=40

Yb(c)= minimum 0.62*Yb(a)=67=5297

3.12 PM

3.23 PM

EOD

So the suspense remains---whether Yb(b) over or not? It can still keep playing as a double zig-zag( or any other combo in following manner:

So all longs must keep a stop-loss at 5230

Raghu

Nifty : EOD 28-04-2012

Gave today's "Special Trading Session" a miss as usually these sessions are non-events and I had some  errands pending.
And now I find today's session changing the whole contours of labels:
Till yesterday, of various probabilities,I was inclined towards following counts:

But today's candles have changed the scenario and brought into forefront following scenario where Ya is still continuing:

More of it in Monday morning post---

Raghu

Trading Nifty on 27-04-2012

Started first lessons in Gann--and astonished to see something----(see the levels marked red)

Too new a student to say 5064 on cards---

Anyways,let me continue with my EW labels:

9.30 AM
Would be booking 50% profit on longs at 5230--the 38.2% retracement point.

SL for longs at 5160

Whenever a Corrective becomes too complex to label,this is what I do:
1. Draw Fibo-retracement levels;
2. Draw a channel;
3. Book out at channel/Fibo levels common points.
4.Wait for overbot/oversold  zone to take fresh positions(usually by this time the wave-pattern also gets clearer---

10.00 AM

11.30 AM
One visit to 5222 again is due now---I would use it for exiting longs---
Wait fpr creating shorts--

!!.59 AM

12.25 weakness confirmed:

All rises to be used for shorting----
Ya=5342-5161=181
Yb=5161-5222  seemingly over
Yc started. Target minimum0.62*Y.a=112=5110

1.15 PM

sw1 of Yc over=5223-5155=68

3.20 PM
Best time to short with SL at 80% of retracement value:

EOD
Y.c in play from 5223 downwards:
Sw2 seems to have played out.
Sw3 if extended likely to take us to 5090---

Trading Nifty on 26-04-2012

Today's guiding light:

And as Y.a=5342-5161=181 took 36 hours, I doubt if Y.b would be over in a single day.
so expect expiry levels to be above 5200

At the end of pre-open session,we are at 5214+ i.e above 5212.2(above high of first set of 5 subwaves) so trailing stop-loss for longs should be put at 5194.

Shifting my SL for longs to 5184 for above illustrated probability.

11.37 AM
Although 5184 low is likely to remain for the day, this Y.b is open to many corrective forms and combos.
That is why I had mentioned the Fibo-retracement levels--62% being at 5273.
While I would be attempting to follow the pattern being taken by Y.b I may not be successful. So do keep in mind the Fibo levels---

12.59 PM
5222 likely--

2.14 PM
I would prefer labeling it this way:

3.05PM
Unable to find a cohesive pattern so far.
All I can say is that a retracement of Y.a=5342-5161 is going on as Y.b.
This Y.b can take any corrective form but we have to wait for 50% to 61.8% of retracement of Y.a before Y.c to the down can begin.
It has been a grinding and frustrating expiry day so far---

EOD:
Ending  with the same chart(with which I had started):

 And no discernible pattern for the ongoing Y.b could be identified.
Expiry day manipulations made it still more hazy--- tomorrow we may get a clearer picture.
Lets have a look at the Hourly Indicaters also:

While hourly price close in between the 5Hr.HEMA/LEMA,I remain inclined to Y.b retracing 50%=(5252) or 61.8%( =5273 ) of Y.a

Raghu

Nifty EOD 25-04-2012

Raj Kapoor sang in Mera Naam Joker:
"ai bhaai !! zara dekh ke chalo---"
and since morning I was looking at this chart and wondering:

"while my Count is suggesting that (since)(iii)=5310-5180=130 is not an extended wave vis-a-vis (i)=5342-5246=96 and (hence) (v) should be extended----
but these Hourly TA indicators are already oversold and showing the positioning similar to an extended 3rd where Indicaters go into oversold zone and then show negative divergence as 5th goes below extended 3rd."

Same was happening here---though (v)=5236-5161 was going below (iii) but Indicaters were showing negative divergence(see chart for clarity) and my mind stuck in extended 5th was thinking 5080."

IT WAS NOT MATCHING.

And then came the Eureka moment---
(iii)=5310-5180=130 was indeed extended but not vis-a-vis (i) but vis-a-vis (v).
AND EVERYTHING GOT MATCHED.


Now lets come to our EW labels:

Thus I would prefer counting Y.b from 5161.25 upwards:

Piyush asked:
"guruji in 1>3>5 diagonal if 3 is .62 of 1 then 5 wud probably
be .38?? hope i am not bothering u with so many q?"

First of all, dear Piyush,  I consider it my privilege whenever anyone asks a question. so this latter part should not bother you.

I have not yet been able to establish any "reportable" proportion in various arms of a diagonal be it sw1>sw3>sw5 or sw1<sw3<sw5 .

Sandy asked about  fractals of (iv) of Y.a=5180-5336=56

It was a Double zig-zag;yesterday I had posted:

There was a small change in labels of last abc

Thanks for asking--- it helps me grow.

Raghu