Nifty:EOD 30.1.2012

Yesterday's conclusion was:
Q
This C of the expanded Flat can normally do 1.618*A=5275 but the descending trendline and 200 DMA were supposedly the last post for it.
If Monday doesnot see a reversal,then Invalidation of this Count would also be not very far.
UnQ

And the only hint of reversal was the Hanging Man candle. And this Hanging Man candle also needed a confirmatory candle--which has come today.
So has the Expanded Flat ended?



Ideally speaking --NO-- as shown in the chart above as the C of Expanded Flat ABC has to do 5 waves.So what we have seen today may well be C4 in progress with C5 upwards to come and do upwards of C3.
And thus Ideal Counts are:
C1=4531-4800=269
C2=4800-4588=212
C3=4588-5217=629(234% of C1)
C4=5217-5077* in progress and should do 23.6% of C3=148=5068(which was almost done today) or at the most 38.2%=240=4977

ALTERNATIVELY, on a larger degree, this Expanded Flat (4639-5217) has retraced 76.5% of 5400-4639 and,therefore,may already be DONE.

So if we keep moving below 4977 then this Expanded Flat should be considered over at 5217 but till then we should Count it as C4 of Expanded Flat ABC.
And todays move as
C4.A=5217-5077*=140
C4.B upwards to follow retracing 50-62% of this C4.A
C4.C=C4.A to come after that.

And lets try and go inside this C4.A=5217-5077* through Hour Charts:




And one clear set of 5 waves (sub-waves of C4.A) seems to have played out and tomorrow morning we may see C4.B in action taking us up again to 5148/5160.

Raghu