That we are going down was clear yesterday.But the question was whether we are going down as (iv) of Z.c or Z.c is already over.
The answer to it lay in the breach of 4795 downwards.As it has not been breached,the probability of last-leg upmove as (v) of Z.c is very much alive.
And the Count,brought forward from yesterday,stands as:
Z.a=4588-4780=192
Z.b=4780-4687=93
Z.c=Z.a=192 should ideally reach 4687+192=4879 or do a maximum 4994(where Z.c=1.6*Z.a).
An attempt has been made to do internal five sub-waves of Z.c in the Chart above,
wherein an ideal 5 wave Z.c would take following form:
(i)=4687-4795=108
(ii)=4795-4696=99
(iii)=4696-4877=181(167%)
(iv)=4877-4804=73
(v)=(i)should ideally take us to 4804+108=4912 or minimum (v)=0.62*(i)=67=4871
And as mentioned yesterday,a strict SL for longs at 4795 is mandatory because its breach would open gates for sub-4500 levels.The first result of new season from Infy is not a positive sign for bulls.
A study of Hourly charts shows that at one point,hourly closing of Nifty had gone below 20 HrEMA and 20 Hr.SMA but managed to close above.A clear negativity in momentum has not yet been indicated on closing basis but risk-reward for longs looks quite limited now,particularly in view of weakness in IT stocks which were holding fort till now.
Conclusion:
As the minimum-ideal range for (v) of Z.c (=4871-4912)coincides with major resistance bands(classical TA),a close above 4900 looks improbable.
Raghu
thank u sirji for itna detailed post :-)
ReplyDeleteHHHHH Piyush bhai,
ReplyDeleteI simply pen down whatever goes through my mind.Sometimes one finds it "detailed" and sometimes "too precise".
If (v) is up to 4871 then it is less than iii. Is it acceptable??
ReplyDeleteDear raghu ji,
ReplyDeletemade above 4871 and below 4900...no words to thank you
Sekar
Dear Satyanarayanji,
ReplyDeleteIn case (v) does its minimum required but still falls less than (iii),its called TRUNCATED FIFTH and usually gets followed by a fast & furious reversal(in fact, the truncation in itself is an indication of increasing pressure in the reverse direction)
Dear Sekar,
ReplyDeleteNo need for thanks my dear as I am just writing what I understand & observe. In fact,in failures I would require more help from you & other friends, to find out what I failed to observe.
Thanks for feedbacks--