Nifty EOD 18-01-2012

Nothing conclusive as far as the direction of the market is concerned.Conclusions remain the same(though not in the order mentioned):
1.A breach of 4979 upwards would mean a go at 5200+ to test 200 DMA;
2.Slide started today,if gathers momentum,may take us down by 568 points(max).
Only thing indicated firmly today was that a 5 wave to the down is in play which would take us down to 4905 minimum and after that how the pattern would pan-out remains a mystery.



This 5 wave form mentioned above may EITHER be subwaves of A of Corrective ABC(retracing the wave 4687-4979=292) but cannot go below 4781--see chart below for further illustration:



OR,we might have seen the end of the rally as per following Count:




And the deciding factor for the two counts is a breach of 4781 to the down.For next 2 days,4979 should remain untested (till this ABC, in the least,gets played out).

Raghu