Nifty EOD 17-01-2012

"Jiska darr tha bedardi wahi baat ho gayi---"
Momentum was not indicating any let up and yesterday's closing hours were a give-away.
Till yesterday we were talking about Nifty closing above 50 DMA but today it has closed above 100 DMA.
Thus we have to search for a new EW pattern now and today's Closing has opened gates to quite Bullish Probabilities as well.
And I would not limit myself to mentioning just one today.

First of all, the one we have been following so far:



Now in the above chart:
W4 can theoretically retrace 99.9% of W3 i.e. can go right upto 5099; and
Z.c can do upto 1.6*Z.a i.e.can go upto 4996( Z.a=4588-4781=193 so Z.c=1.6*193=309)

then why am I throwing it out of my "most prefereed Count"?

To answer that I have to take you all inside this Z.c( as I was taking you there all along so it should be easy).Z.c as an independent wave,has to be either a regular 5 wave or an Ending Diagonal within the parameter so defined(i.e. with maximum length of 309).Now if we look at hourly charts for this Z.c starting from 4687



But now it will have to be seen as



EW basis,it is acceptable as no rules violated so far but the signals from momentum side are not gelling with this count.Trendline & channel have been broken and Nifty is resting above 100 DMA.



The blue channel where the UTL has been tested but not broken represents Z wave being discussed so far and should be the last saviour for bears.
Hence I would mark 4996 as the last SL for those who are keeping their Shorts

And you never know about the markets.Particularly the way Overbought signals are getting generated--they give hope to bears.

But again,in view of continuous and consistent momentum being reflected by Nifty's moves,it would be imprudent if Bullish side is not considered.

And so I would end by putting up the Most Bullish Probability:



It has turned out to be quite a lengthy post. Hope it will prove educative as well.

Raghu