Whether Z.b is over?
I'm not able to assign a convincing Corrective Pattern to this Z.b so far. On Hourly Charts, it looks as follows:
If I say that Z.b=4781.55-4687.2 ;then what form can I assign to it?
At best a zig-zag wherein:
sw1=4781.55-4729.1=52.45
sw2=4729.1-4779.55=50.45
sw3=4779.55-4687.2=92.35(176% of sw1)and that negates the zig-zag as sw3 can not go above 1.618*sw1 in a zig-zag.
So ideally speaking,Z.b may still be in play as a complex corrective resulting in extremely choppy mkts and it might entail the spike to 4795 as a "bogey-spike".
Alternatively,not bothering about a discernible pattern and taking into account the spike to 4795 to be "real",we may say that Z.b was over at 4687.2 and Z.c is already in progress with a minimum target of 0.618*Z.a(=4588-4781=193)=120=4807
Raghu
Dear Raghu ji !
ReplyDeleteWhy couldn’t we see the move as under:
Wave: 4588-4780=192
Corrective: 4780-4687=93
(a) 4780-4731=49
(b) 4731-4756=25
(c) 4756-4687=69
Wave: 4687- contd.
Wavy: 4687-4795=1 mala
Corrective: 4795-4696=99
Wava: 4696- contd. Target : 4696+2 mala=4912
Wavy: 4696-4759=63
Corrective: 4759- 4723=36 *
Wava with in wava: to foll0w the corrective for minimum 100 points
IMHO/NOI
Sir which Chart are you following for
ReplyDeleteQ
Corrective: 4780-4687=93
(a) 4780-4731=49
(b) 4731-4756=25
(c) 4756-4687=69
UnQ
because my Charts,shown above,are not showing these figures.Though 4781-4687 are matching.
Regds
raghuji,
ReplyDeletein addition precter states(if i remember correctly) b of zz cant be more than 80% retrace of a . what else will be difference between zz and flat
@piyushji: Im also in learning mode and what I gathered is that within a corrective, we can typically expect a 3 wave double/triple zz to unfurl as zz-flat-zz at one degree lower;
ReplyDeletemaybe if we try to view price action with this lens, some improbable counts can go out. The characteristic of a zz pattern unfurling is that typically the prior corrective has not achieved the targets it should have and hence, zz patterns tend to consume more time at all degrees compared to a Flat or Expanded Flat [Diagonals are usually the longest in time consumption]
All this is my personal interpretation and I may be wrong - so as usual I end the note with the standard IMHO......
Piyush ji.........
ReplyDeleteThere are only three CORE rules for EW..........Every thing else is GUIDELINE or BENCHMARK or termed something similar............
RULES CANNOT be broken...........NO EXCEPTIONZ..........Guideness can be broken............no harm done.
It is near impossible to predict the pattern before it has completed.
There are cases where in a flat formation........the B did just about 100% of the A but the C did close to 161.8% of the A...........Bob ji's expectation that the c would end just beyond A holds good most of the time is a guideline NOT a rule and like Naagi seth says, I am in learning mode too and so I add the escape clause IMHO :D
The combinations can be in the form of any or all of the correcive waves...
ZZ+ZZ+ZZ
ZZ+FLAT+ZZ
ZZ+FLAT+FLAT
FLAT+ZZ+FLAT
One clue we get - pukka clue - IF & when a triangle pops up in combination.
It means, the correction is about to end:
TRIANGLES can be part of the combination BUT will apprear only as the LAST part of the combo.
If we see a FLAT + Triangle.........we can be 100% certain that it is D3 (double three, meaning two waves of corrective type)
A FLAT + ZZ will have us guessing what the next part of a combo is likely to be!!!!!! Unlike the FLAT + TRIANG or the ZZ + TRIANG
In short the only time I am able to predict that a correction has ended is when a clear triang is visible at the end of a combo.
The wava and mala refered by you are to ME like Laloo Prasad's statement Well spoken but with no meaning :D
Dear WaveRider !
ReplyDeleteQ:The wava and mala refered by you are to ME like Laloo Prasad's statement Well spoken but with no meaning :D
U.Q.: If you try to improvise than I think could be able to understand the meaning of such terms:
for your convenience see these as under :
Alike :
Wevo = The name given by you to MACD ( with some modifications)
Mala=108 ( the no. of manias a mala contains )
Wava= Papa of wave ( means a bigger wave )
NOI, just to be help full in your improvisation !
thanx for reply waverider(baluji)/naagi ji.
ReplyDeletehope i am not wrong with wave rider name. atleast i learned something new. triangle always in end..
:-))
dhanyawaad gurujano!!
'RULES CANNOT be broken...........NO EXCEPTIONZ..........Guideness can be broken............no harm done.'
waverider ji. i also wanted to say raghuji
this when he labelled 4th end as 5400 entering and staying for many hours above 5328 wave 1.
so now i am clueless abt 2008 jan onwards labelling. in my mind only option left is triangle with c leg nov 2010 onwards..ispar bhi kuch prakash daaliye!!
@piyushji: Until we hit 4773 on the downside first time in Aug 2011, the Diagonal was one probable pattern at Py Degree;
ReplyDeleteIMHO, yes the current falls from highs of Nov 2010 are corrective but a downward zz now seems a more probable option to the extent we don't breach 3800 on a Monthly closing basis
A breach of 3800 on a Monthly level would then imply that the correction from 6338 is assuming the form of a Flat Py-C
This is on the Py C degree but we have had ample Diagonals / CTs at lower degrees and looking in the rear view mirror, the Nov '11 highs with a 4th wave at smaller degree breaching 1st wave territory was perhaps a diagonal 1 degree lower
Last but not the least, I am no guru - still trying to find my way in the complex maze of waves.
Grandpas of waves are sitting in Georgia and gurujans are waverider and raghuji for me; I am nothing in comparison to the many experts we have in our country so would prefer the title of 'shishya' only.....
thank u for the detailed reply naagiji,
ReplyDeleteaap tension mat lo. jitna main jaanta hun main aapko bhi guruji bula sakta hun :-)
''Until we hit 4773 on the downside first time in Aug 2011, the Diagonal was one probable pattern at Py Degree; ''
3rd of diagonal 6181-5178=1003, 5740-1003=4737. what i can think of is 4737 is invalidation point for diagonal in aug11, it reached 4720. i am not able to understand 4773. if possible pls explain..
''A breach of 3800 on a Monthly level would then imply that the correction from 6338 is assuming the form of a Flat Py-C''
ya 5740-4720=1020 yc max 1.618*1020=1650
3750. so if 3750 is not broken the structure frm nov 10 is considered double zigzag , if broken then flat. am i right in my thought??
i appreciate ur scientific approach of ew analysis
@piyushji:
ReplyDeleteFor the Py C downwards, I am taking the low of PyB @ 2252 [Oct '08 value] and the high of PyB @ 6338 [Nov '10 value] = 4086 odd points
38.2% retracement of this comes to 4777 and 61.8% of the retracement comes to 3817
For 3800, Im taking that small tolerance of 17 points as Im referring to the Monthly Bar; For 4773, harshal bhai had mentioned something but I don't remember right now but I guess we can ignore the small difference.
Again as you rightly pointed out, the Diangonal for Py C degree got ruled out when we ticked 4720. This leaves the current format as a ZZ on Py Degree to the extent 3800 holds. Below 3800, we need to brace up for a Flat!
On the other hand, as you rightly pointed out, we also have to give credence to the current down leg from 6338 and a minimum estimate for this will be 6338 - [1.618 x(6338 - 5177)] = 4460 [by ticking below 4640, the option of 6338 - [2.618 x (6338 - 5690)] also went out of the window IMHO
As our dear gurujans and grand daddies of waves keep repeating, in the end it is about analysing probablities and discarding improbable ones. Im neither a puritan nor a devoted student so will rest my case with this comment.
[appreciate your kind words and wish to convey that the doubts you keep raising are helpful in cross checking what is going wrong in our wave surfing; eliminating wrong probabilities is easier than guessing the right one!]
thank u once again for ur reply.
ReplyDeletethe explaination for reaching counts are very useful for learners.
'[by ticking below 4640, the option of 6338 - [2.618 x (6338 - 5690)] also went out of the window IMHO'
yeh samajh main nahin aya. par lagta aapko bahut pareshan kar chuka hun isliye kabhi aur ke liye chor dijiye... :-)