Nifty:EOD 2.01.2012

The "Yaksh-prashna"-- whether the down move from 4800 is a 3 wave or a 5 wave-- has been indirectly answered today.So far:
SW1=4800-4672=128
4800-4751
4751-4772
4772-4685
4685-4726
4726-4672
SW2=4672-4702=30

SW3 in progress from 4702 downwards.
Had this been a fast & furious downmove,I would have called the downmove from 4800 a 5 wave Impulse.But it is too grinding & cumbersome making me inclined to treat it as a 3 wave form.
For a 3 wave (wherein this SW1,SW2 & SW3 would be labelled ABC) this SW3 has to be minimum 0.62*SW1=79=4622 .Ideally in a 3 wave C=A so SW3=SW1=128 means a target of 4574.
And this SW3 (as C)can either be a 5 wave Impulse or an Ending Diagonal.
And the best possible labelling for this SW3 from 4702-downwards (to me) is:
(i)=4702-4666=36
(ii)=4666-4695=29
(iii)=4695-4588=107
(iv)=4588-4641*
(v)to down for (may be)sub-4588
Otherwise,if 4666 gets breached on the upside then this downmove may be considered over at 4588

I am not considering the 5 wave option as for a 3rd wave,this move from 4702 down has been too cumbersome.(Though its probability would be completely ruled out only above 4702).




CONCLUSION:
Bias towards the downmove from 4800 being over at 4588. It may, at the most, make a dash below 4588 to come up again.A breach of 4666 on the upside would confirm that the downmove is over.Upward target remains 4840 as I would be counting it as XYZXZ.




Raghu