Nifty EOD 19-01-2011

The anticipated minimum downfall to 4905 failed to take place---showing that yesterday's fall from 4979-4931 was a corrective of smaller degree and got assimilated in higher degree wave---telling me again that it is better to limit myself to Hourly Candles & EOD candles only.
However,today's move has clearly stated that we are now in upmove to cross 5100 definitely and depending upon how we move upwards,may even test 200 DMA at 5200 +.

Thus the higher degree choice of Counts has become as follows:




And the same chart in Hourly scale:





As shown in the chart above:
Y.c(ii)c in progress.
Can do upto 5276 in 5 waves.
Has so far done:
sw1=4532-4800=268
sw2=4800-4588=212
sw3=4588-5023*=435(162%) and there is no let up in upward momentum so far
so we can not say where this sw3 will stop:
This sw3 in itself has to be a 5 wave form. Lets try to see haw it has shaped :
(i)=4588-4782=194
(ii)=4782-4687=95
(iii)=4687-5023=336(173%)




Thus basic minimum 3rd wave extension of 162% of 1st wave have been achieved.
But that is no guarantee that retracement will start immediately.
So once again we shall have to look to momentum.

Raghu