Nifty :EOD 31.01.2012

First the Bird's eye view:

Now within this C4,I had mentioned yesterday:
Q
And todays move as
C4.A=5217-5077*=140
C4.B upwards to follow retracing 50-62% of this C4.A
C4.C=C4.A to come after that.
UnQ

And the C4.B upwards came upwards but didnot remain limited to 50-62% of C4.A and this is how it has moved so far:



Thus the upmove 5077-5215.4(labelled as C4.B) of today was a clear 3 wave move
5077-5157=80
5157-5128=29
5128-5215.4*=87

For an Expanded Flat,this C4.B can very well do upto 1.382*C4.A=193=5270
And this C4.B can,as a 3 wave, very well do 1.6*80=128=5256

So tomorrow,going up to 5256 is quite possible before we start downwards as C4.C

Raghu

Nifty:EOD 30.1.2012

Yesterday's conclusion was:
Q
This C of the expanded Flat can normally do 1.618*A=5275 but the descending trendline and 200 DMA were supposedly the last post for it.
If Monday doesnot see a reversal,then Invalidation of this Count would also be not very far.
UnQ

And the only hint of reversal was the Hanging Man candle. And this Hanging Man candle also needed a confirmatory candle--which has come today.
So has the Expanded Flat ended?



Ideally speaking --NO-- as shown in the chart above as the C of Expanded Flat ABC has to do 5 waves.So what we have seen today may well be C4 in progress with C5 upwards to come and do upwards of C3.
And thus Ideal Counts are:
C1=4531-4800=269
C2=4800-4588=212
C3=4588-5217=629(234% of C1)
C4=5217-5077* in progress and should do 23.6% of C3=148=5068(which was almost done today) or at the most 38.2%=240=4977

ALTERNATIVELY, on a larger degree, this Expanded Flat (4639-5217) has retraced 76.5% of 5400-4639 and,therefore,may already be DONE.

So if we keep moving below 4977 then this Expanded Flat should be considered over at 5217 but till then we should Count it as C4 of Expanded Flat ABC.
And todays move as
C4.A=5217-5077*=140
C4.B upwards to follow retracing 50-62% of this C4.A
C4.C=C4.A to come after that.

And lets try and go inside this C4.A=5217-5077* through Hour Charts:




And one clear set of 5 waves (sub-waves of C4.A) seems to have played out and tomorrow morning we may see C4.B in action taking us up again to 5148/5160.

Raghu

Nifty: EOD 27-01-2012

Through the above image I am trying to depict the following factors which I have been mentioning all along:
1.EW count (shown in red )as an Expanded Flat;
2.Descending trendline from previous highs of Deepawali 2010;
3.200DMA;
4.Momentum vide MACD (5,34,5)which is not showing any let up.

This C of the expanded Flat can normally do 1.618*A=5275 but the descending trendline and 200 DMA were supposedly the last post for it.
If Monday doesnot see a reversal,then Invalidation of this Count would also be not very far.

Let momentum guide us and please donot take any positions in anticipation---

Raghu

Nifty: EOD 25-01-2012

I am feeling a bit strange while posting these charts:


These are daily charts closing price being much above 5DEMA,though RSI in overbot zone,MACD shows no turning down.

And below are Hourly charts with same parameters:



What these indicaters have got to do in a blog with EW counts?
In answer to that,I would like to repost what I wrote yesterday:
Q

The fractals of Sw3 as shown above are:
(i)=4588-4780=192
(ii)=4780-4687=93
(iii)=4687-4899=212
(iv)=4899-4827=72
(v)=4827-5141=314*(having done 163% of (i)

Thus Sw3 as 205% extension of Sw1 and having 5 wave internal fractals (which too have done minimum targets) looks now ready for a Sw4 retracement.

But when will it oblige?
UnQ

Today, the (v) ( mentioned above) did 4827-5173.55 and that makes me repost yesterday's chart with descending Trendline:





Although my guess is as good as yours,momentum indicaters as shown in the first two charts are not showing any let-up.Are we going to test 200DMA in this SW3 only or it will be left for SW5 to test that?

However,EW counts show that the fruit is ready to be plucked and if we get any negative global clues,a gap-down opening can very well be expected.
And my first target would be 4990.

Raghu

Nifty EOD 24.-1-2012

Upward march of Nifty continues,though the small degree corrective expected in the morning didnot occur.Now we have come quite close to the end of SW3 of C as seen below in EOD charts:



In the Expanded Flat ABC shown above,C can do upto 1.618*A thus a range got defined few days back,that the possibility of C doing 5276 is very much open.
This C has to pan out as a 5 wave form of which:
Sw1=4531-4800=269
Sw2=4800-4588=212
Sw3=4588-5141* has already done 205% of Sw1.

And here the significance of Momentum needs to be mentioned once again.
Theoretically Sw3 can do anything from 162% to 425% of Sw1.Indicaters like RSI start giving overbot/oversold signals as soon as the mimimum 162% is reached,prompting one to take a position in anticipation of reversal which most of the times causes lot of pain-- financial & mental.
Thus EW has to be seen alongwith Momentum & Trendline/Channel and 20/50/100/200DMAs and they provide probable levels of reversal.

Now lets see the Sw3=4588-5141* on Hourly chart and see how it has panned out so far:





The fractals of Sw3 as shown above are:
(i)=4588-4780=192
(ii)=4780-4687=93
(iii)=4687-4899=212
(iv)=4899-4827=72
(v)=4827-5141=314*(having done 163% of (i)

Thus Sw3 as 205% extension of Sw1 and having 5 wave internal fractals (which too have done minimum targets) looks now ready for a Sw4 retracement.

But when will it oblige?

I wish I could answer that.
Momentum has not given any signs of subsiding so far.Though the Sw3 channel line seems to be offering some resistance as shown above.
And also the lang term descending trendline is very close as shown below--around 5172.
Or will it be the 200DMA at around 5220?



Sw4 to the down,as and when it starts,is likely to do a 23.6% or 38.2% retracement of Sw3 as Sw2 was quite deep.

Raghu

Nifty EOD 23-1-2012

Continuing with my yesterday's count:



Nifty's upward bias remains intact and my recommendation to buy at dips for targets 5150+ stands. One of these dips may be seen tomorrow morning at the opening( indicated in the chart above also). But it is not likely to go below 4931( as I am treating it as a retracement of 4931-5064)likely to end in between 4965-4981(4990 in itself is a good support) and then shoot up 5150 + should start.

So to me,the best trade for tomorrow would be to accumulate longs in 4965-4980 range (50 DMA also in this range)with stop-loss at 4931 and target 5158+

Raghu

Nifty : EOD 20.01.2012

As I mentioned in today's morning post:

So now that we are Counting the retracement ABC of Impulse 5400-4639=761 as an expanded flat,capable of doing upto 5276(A=4639-5100;B=5100-4532;C can go upto 1.618*A);
most plausible retracement levels of Impulse 5400-4639=761 are:
61.8%=5109
76.4%=5220
And,in continuation we can count as:




And both the Counts point to 5150+ range minimum with internal retracements,even if deep,remaining limited to 4940 levels(which can be used as a good stop loss for longs now.

So advantage bulls continues-- and buying at dips should remain the trade bias.

Raghu

Nifty : Beginning 20-1-2012

So now that we are Counting the retracement ABC of Impulse 5400-4639=761 as an expanded flat,capable of doing upto 5276(A=4639-5100;B=5100-4532;C can go upto 1.618*A);
most plausible retracement levels of Impulse 5400-4639=761 are:
61.8%=5109
76.4%=5220



And the most plausible count that appears on EOD chart so far is:




And subjectivity being the hallmark of EW,this is definitely not the only EW pattern that is in air.
On Hourly charts this extended (v) appears as below, and looks capable of doing 5171+ :



Though the Channel gives some hope to trapped shorts:



But with no let up in momentum so far,this channel would give in sooner than later.
Raghu

Nifty EOD 19-01-2011

The anticipated minimum downfall to 4905 failed to take place---showing that yesterday's fall from 4979-4931 was a corrective of smaller degree and got assimilated in higher degree wave---telling me again that it is better to limit myself to Hourly Candles & EOD candles only.
However,today's move has clearly stated that we are now in upmove to cross 5100 definitely and depending upon how we move upwards,may even test 200 DMA at 5200 +.

Thus the higher degree choice of Counts has become as follows:




And the same chart in Hourly scale:





As shown in the chart above:
Y.c(ii)c in progress.
Can do upto 5276 in 5 waves.
Has so far done:
sw1=4532-4800=268
sw2=4800-4588=212
sw3=4588-5023*=435(162%) and there is no let up in upward momentum so far
so we can not say where this sw3 will stop:
This sw3 in itself has to be a 5 wave form. Lets try to see haw it has shaped :
(i)=4588-4782=194
(ii)=4782-4687=95
(iii)=4687-5023=336(173%)




Thus basic minimum 3rd wave extension of 162% of 1st wave have been achieved.
But that is no guarantee that retracement will start immediately.
So once again we shall have to look to momentum.

Raghu

Nifty EOD 18-01-2012

Nothing conclusive as far as the direction of the market is concerned.Conclusions remain the same(though not in the order mentioned):
1.A breach of 4979 upwards would mean a go at 5200+ to test 200 DMA;
2.Slide started today,if gathers momentum,may take us down by 568 points(max).
Only thing indicated firmly today was that a 5 wave to the down is in play which would take us down to 4905 minimum and after that how the pattern would pan-out remains a mystery.



This 5 wave form mentioned above may EITHER be subwaves of A of Corrective ABC(retracing the wave 4687-4979=292) but cannot go below 4781--see chart below for further illustration:



OR,we might have seen the end of the rally as per following Count:




And the deciding factor for the two counts is a breach of 4781 to the down.For next 2 days,4979 should remain untested (till this ABC, in the least,gets played out).

Raghu

Nifty EOD 17-01-2012

"Jiska darr tha bedardi wahi baat ho gayi---"
Momentum was not indicating any let up and yesterday's closing hours were a give-away.
Till yesterday we were talking about Nifty closing above 50 DMA but today it has closed above 100 DMA.
Thus we have to search for a new EW pattern now and today's Closing has opened gates to quite Bullish Probabilities as well.
And I would not limit myself to mentioning just one today.

First of all, the one we have been following so far:



Now in the above chart:
W4 can theoretically retrace 99.9% of W3 i.e. can go right upto 5099; and
Z.c can do upto 1.6*Z.a i.e.can go upto 4996( Z.a=4588-4781=193 so Z.c=1.6*193=309)

then why am I throwing it out of my "most prefereed Count"?

To answer that I have to take you all inside this Z.c( as I was taking you there all along so it should be easy).Z.c as an independent wave,has to be either a regular 5 wave or an Ending Diagonal within the parameter so defined(i.e. with maximum length of 309).Now if we look at hourly charts for this Z.c starting from 4687



But now it will have to be seen as



EW basis,it is acceptable as no rules violated so far but the signals from momentum side are not gelling with this count.Trendline & channel have been broken and Nifty is resting above 100 DMA.



The blue channel where the UTL has been tested but not broken represents Z wave being discussed so far and should be the last saviour for bears.
Hence I would mark 4996 as the last SL for those who are keeping their Shorts

And you never know about the markets.Particularly the way Overbought signals are getting generated--they give hope to bears.

But again,in view of continuous and consistent momentum being reflected by Nifty's moves,it would be imprudent if Bullish side is not considered.

And so I would end by putting up the Most Bullish Probability:



It has turned out to be quite a lengthy post. Hope it will prove educative as well.

Raghu

Nifty: EOD 16-01-2012

As usual,maintaining the continuity till the count gets invalidated:
Larger picture:




and on zooming in:


And this is how the last two days can be counted for the fresh down-move that has been "assumed"( so far) to have begun from 4899 downwards, on Hourly Charts:


Normally,SW2 is a zig-zag but here the SW2 has been shown to have played out an expanded flat( whose C is a diagonal).As major Nifty heavy-weights are aligning themselves for this fresh downmove,it is not ab-normal.
And so I am persisting with the above Count.
Stop-loss for shorts remains at 4899.

And what our Momentum indicaters are saying?



While till 1.00pm Nifty was trading below its 20Hr.EMA,it shot up after that and closed not only above 20Hr.EMA but also above 5 Hr.EMA thus a decisive reversal has still not been indicated as far as momentum is concerned.And add to it the fact that we have closed,for the 2nd day in running above 50DMA( at 4843 now).
Thus EW labels have yet to be confirmed by momentum studies.So strict SL at 4899 for shorts have to be kept.

Nifty:EOD 13-01-2012

Updating both the Daily as well as Hourly charts in continuation to yesterday's post:




And it was very gratifying to see that we were able to trace/track Nifty correctly during the WXYXZ count.

Now what lies in future?

To answer that,I would zoom out a little and request all of you to look at the Higher Degree chart which was posted a few days ago.



Thus now we are at the threshold of a downwave,labelled as (v) of Y.c which should be taking us to a target of at the most 4330 as it can not be longer than 568 points.

Shorts should have a SL at 4899.

Raghu

Nifty: EOD 12-01-2012

That we are going down was clear yesterday.But the question was whether we are going down as (iv) of Z.c or Z.c is already over.
The answer to it lay in the breach of 4795 downwards.As it has not been breached,the probability of last-leg upmove as (v) of Z.c is very much alive.
And the Count,brought forward from yesterday,stands as:

Z.a=4588-4780=192
Z.b=4780-4687=93
Z.c=Z.a=192 should ideally reach 4687+192=4879 or do a maximum 4994(where Z.c=1.6*Z.a).
An attempt has been made to do internal five sub-waves of Z.c in the Chart above,
wherein an ideal 5 wave Z.c would take following form:
(i)=4687-4795=108
(ii)=4795-4696=99
(iii)=4696-4877=181(167%)
(iv)=4877-4804=73
(v)=(i)should ideally take us to 4804+108=4912 or minimum (v)=0.62*(i)=67=4871



And as mentioned yesterday,a strict SL for longs at 4795 is mandatory because its breach would open gates for sub-4500 levels.The first result of new season from Infy is not a positive sign for bulls.
A study of Hourly charts shows that at one point,hourly closing of Nifty had gone below 20 HrEMA and 20 Hr.SMA but managed to close above.A clear negativity in momentum has not yet been indicated on closing basis but risk-reward for longs looks quite limited now,particularly in view of weakness in IT stocks which were holding fort till now.



Conclusion:
As the minimum-ideal range for (v) of Z.c (=4871-4912)coincides with major resistance bands(classical TA),a close above 4900 looks improbable.

Raghu

Nifty: EOD 11-01-2012

And continuing from yesterday's quote:
Q
Z.a=4588-4780=192
Z.b=4780-4687=93
Z.c=Z.a=192 should ideally reach 4687+192=4879 or do a maximum 4994(where Z.c=1.6*Z.a).
An attempt has been made to do internal five sub-waves of Z.c in the Chart above,
wherein an ideal 5 wave Z.c would take following form:
(i)=4687-4795=108
(ii)=4795-4696=99
(iii)=min 1.62*(i)=175=4871
(iv)=min 23.4% of (iii)=41=4830
(v)=(i)=4938
Thus we should be ready for 4900+ levels tomorrow
UnQ

And Hourly Charts show us:



Now there are two important points in the above quote:
1. Ideal Z.c=Z.a=4879 was almost done today(Nifty making a high of 4877+); and
2.After doing the (iii)=4696-4877=181,ideally the 5 wave Z.c has one last leg-up remaining which should take it up again after playing the (iv) to the down--minimum upto 4835 but not below 4795.

However, this being the last leg,one never knows whether it shall be played or not
and particularly with high voltage Infy results due tomorrow and the ideal condition of Z.c=Z.a having been already met.
Any one wishing to play this last leg-up must keep a strict SL at 4794.Personally,I believe that risk reward for longs is not very good as if & when 4795 is breached on the downside,floodgates to sub 4500 would get opened.

So I would advise shorting at rise and if 4795 is breached,it would provide the confirmation for going all out SHORT.

Raghu

Nifty Higher Degree Counts: Difficult to go below 4300

May be I am being conservative.
But why rush?

Raghu

Nifty EOD 10-01-2012

Updating the Count-chart from yesterday:


For academic purposes,how should the a b c of this Z be labelled.Posting three alternatives:





Anyways,whichever way we label it,tentatively
Z.a=4588-4780=192
Z.b=4780-4687=93
Z.c=Z.a=192 should ideally reach 4687+192=4879 or do a maximum 4994(where Z.c=1.6*Z.a).
An attempt has been made to do internal five sub-waves of Z.c in the Chart above,
wherein an ideal 5 wave Z.c would take following form:
(i)=4687-4795=108
(ii)=4795-4696=99
(iii)=min 1.62*(i)=175=4871
(iv)=min 23.4% of (iii)=41=4830
(v)=(i)=4938
Thus we should be ready for 4900+ levels tomorrow

Raghu

Nifty: EOD 09-01-2012

Updating the Chart in continuation with previous post:

Whether Z.b is over?
I'm not able to assign a convincing Corrective Pattern to this Z.b so far. On Hourly Charts, it looks as follows:


If I say that Z.b=4781.55-4687.2 ;then what form can I assign to it?
At best a zig-zag wherein:
sw1=4781.55-4729.1=52.45
sw2=4729.1-4779.55=50.45
sw3=4779.55-4687.2=92.35(176% of sw1)and that negates the zig-zag as sw3 can not go above 1.618*sw1 in a zig-zag.

So ideally speaking,Z.b may still be in play as a complex corrective resulting in extremely choppy mkts and it might entail the spike to 4795 as a "bogey-spike".

Alternatively,not bothering about a discernible pattern and taking into account the spike to 4795 to be "real",we may say that Z.b was over at 4687.2 and Z.c is already in progress with a minimum target of 0.618*Z.a(=4588-4781=193)=120=4807


Raghu