Dear friends,Would like your kind attention be drawn towards the chart here wherein the Island Reversal pattern and testing of Upper Trendline both indicate the Upward bias that Nifty has acquired.
And the next two days would be crucial for deciding whether the gap-up gets filled(and Nifty gets back into the sideways zone) or Trendline gets broken(and uptrend gets formally in play).
Meanwhile, for EW followers, my sincere advice would be to go a degree higher(and not lower as my friend UPS has been insisting) and start Counting from highs of January 2008.That only shall be able to give us meaningful answer.
My attempts at EW would also be out after sometime.
Please acknowledge momentum and donot go against it. Patterns (EW or otherwise) would fall in place sooner or later.
Raghu
sir please check this count
ReplyDeleteA-6339-5681
B-5681-6181
C-6181-5177
X-5196-5944
A-5944-4728
w1-5944-5328
W25328-5740
W35740-4720
W44720-5169
W55169-4728
B-4728-5360*
a-4728-5160
b-5160-5038
c-5038-5360*
regards
sorry X is 5177-5944
ReplyDeleteDear Rajesh,
ReplyDeleteMy exposure to EW is not very old so I feel a bit shy to comment on anyone's counts. However,my approach towards EW is centered on two pillars:
1. Fib percentages
2. Wave form
And in the count mentioned by you
Q
A-5944-4728
w1-5944-5328
W25328-5740
W35740-4720
W44720-5169
W55169-4728
UnQ
W4=4720-5169 doesnot pass muster as 3 wave form.
W5 can either be an impulse or an ED where all 5 waves have to be 3s.
And it doesnot get through any of these guidelines.
My request would be to read the Corrective from January 2008 highs.
And play by Momentum till a clear pattern-picture emerges.
Raghu
dear sir,
ReplyDeletesorry to bother you again.i am very new to ew.so many doubts.please bear with me.in your 22 sept EOD post you mentioned the fractals of W4 as
A=4720-5114=394
B=5114-4911
C=4911-5168.
regarding W5 it looks like it ended as an ed but i am unable to label the fractals.
once again sorry to bother you
regards
Dear Rajesh,
ReplyDeletePl continue datewise on the EOD posts and you would understand that this Count had a lacuna.
C has to be a 5 wave and in C=4911-5168 the 4th wave wave entering territory of Ist wave so this Count was rejected later on.And the move from 4720 was being counted as WXY.
Guruji, Seeing with open mind here we had ABC followed by X and then ABC now again X
ReplyDeleteIn other words are we entering in W-X-Y-X-Z type.With counts as follows
W 6338 – 5177 = 1161
Wa6338- 5690 = 648
Wb 5690-6181= 491 (75%)
Wc 6181-5177 = 1004 (1.54%)
X 5177- 5944 = 767
Xa 5177-5608 = 431
Xb 5608- 5348= 260 (60%)
Xc 5348- 5944 = 596 (138%)
Y 5944-4720 = 1224
Ya=5944-5329=615
Yb=5329-5740=411 (66%)
Yc= 5740-4720=1020(165% of Ya)
X 4720-5360** Target unchanged near 5450
Xa 4720- 5169 = 449
Xb 5169- 4728 = 448
Xc 4728- 5360***If we take minimum 1.61 times Xa then target is 5451
Guruji kindly correct me after going through various combinations, I found this count to be the suiting in current scenario
Special thanks to Laxmi Rajesh whose chart made me to think and come to this count
Regards
UPS
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteDear UPS,
ReplyDeleteIn my opinion,whenever we are considering a 3 wave zig-zag form,the most common scenario is of C=A ,followed by C= min 0.618*A.
Yes C=1.618*A and C=even 2.618*A(very very rare) are also allowed but mostly in cases of Expanded Flat(where B>1.05A) and not in Zig-Zags.
So I find this kind of counting attempt very streched where all zig-zags are being considered with C>1.618*A.
Dear Raghuji,
ReplyDeleteOn Py DEGREE,
A: 6358-2253
B did
B: 2253-6339 , this has not satisfied rule of either FLAT or ZZ (B shud end slightly higher than start of A for FLAT, or else, shud end within 80% x A for ZZ
Hints @ the move from 2253-6339 was pro'lly B.a
and now B.b is in play 6339- 5360**
At that WAVE DEGREE, imho , we shud b on the look out for a 3 wave B.b, not a 5 wave C.1,2,5 etc
Pls check when time permits
urs
Thanks Shri,
ReplyDeleteAt least there is someone who has taken my call to Count the Corrective from 6358
:-))
Now,come to Closing prices(it helps to smoothen the counts by cutting out the shoot-ups & downs)and you will find that the Closing price of Nov 2010(6312) was higher than the Closing price of Jan 2008(below 6300).
Also ,in the move up from 2253-6339,while the First Wave (2253-4693) is a good Motive (to be considered either a or w1),the second move up,from 3919-6339 is too sluggish to be considered C wave or W3 :-(
Dekhte hain Dimaag ka bulb kab jalta hai----
Q
ReplyDeletewhile the First Wave (2253-4693) is a good Motive (to be considered either a or w1),the second move up,from 3919-6339 is too sluggish to be considered C wave or W3 :-(
unQ
y sluggish sir ?
its done a good 2450 pts in roughly 8 months ! 2253-6339 is a clear 3 wave ZZ (C=99%xA)
And on closing price, yes
Py A 6275 2584 -3691
Py B 2584 6312 3728 -101%
B less than 105% x A is FIT for a REGULAR FLAT
Million $$ Q , is we r having to resort to Close price for such a CRUCIAL DECISION, bcoz Hi-Los are not supporting the FLAT count :-(
urs
The rule for Flat says that Wave B always retraces minimum 90% of wave A. On that account even L/H support the Flat Count:
ReplyDeleteA=6358-2253
B=2253-6339
C=6339-downwards
So your million dollars question should not have arisen in the first place.
But I am still not convinced of the 3919-6339 being a B(c) and you know only percentages [being equal to B(a)] donot suffice.
This B(c) is not exactly as sharp as I wished and 5 clear subwaves are also not that discernible.Can you please throw some more light on it?
Raghu
Dear Raghuji,
ReplyDeleteAs i see the move from 2253 to 6339 followed a WXY
W: 2253-5182
X: 5182-4786 (as a Triangle)
Y: 4786-6339
Pls check
Also , i m not sure about rule for B for FLAT being acceptable as 90% x A, kidhar padha aapne ?
urs
raghuji,
ReplyDeleteending diagonal from 6338 as c wave of flat.
can this be possible.
i read in beckman that some flexiblity shud be allowed in correctives wrt their sizes.
why this cant be impulse like in 2003-07.there is a better answer (as it appears to me) outside ew. if we look frm 1978-1991 sensex(100-4500+approx) clearly forms 5 waves then 1991-2003 flat type complex correction of 5 waves. range 2500-6000.
then 2003-2007 again impulse 2500-21000.
the next impulse is 3.3
shud be the fastest.
the valuation at the moment is too high at nifty p/e 18 (historical)approx to bring such a ferocious rally.
in 3.3 nifty wud go to maybe 15000-20000 in 5-6 years. valustion doesnt support start of such rally now.
when nifty p/e will be 12 at 5000 level then upward thrust will start. till then correction.
this is what i feel.
Q
ReplyDeleteAlso , i m not sure about rule for B for FLAT being acceptable as 90% x A, kidhar padha aapne ?
UnQ
Read p89 of Prechter book dahling---it is the most elementary thing and you surprised me by asking--
Dear Piyush ji,
ReplyDeleteI'm trying to figure out the fresh Counts which co-relate better with Jan.2008 highs.
Pl bear with me.
However,I try not to mix the (available or released )news and fundamentals with EW patterns
HAHHA...
ReplyDeleteThank u for helping me revise the basics raghuji :-)
urs