First of all a look at the larger picture.As the Chart above shows Y.A ended after traversing 4729-5160=431 points.
As Y.A was an Impulse so likelihood of Y being a Zig-Zag is very high, i.e. Y.B is likely to retrace 38.2 to 79% of Y.A
Y.B to the down started as a 3 wave form(ZZ or Flat or a Combo yet to know) from 5160 down.
Tentative targets for Y.B are 38.2% of Y.A (4955) to 79% of Y.A(4820).
Now lets see what has happened inside Y.B so far:
As a 3 wave form Y.B has to fan out as Y.B(a),Y.B(b) and Y.B(c).
While Y.B(a) can be either a 3 wave or 5 wave, Y.B(b) has to be a 3 wave and Y.B(c) has to be a 5 wave.
Now lets see what has happened inside Y.B(a) so far---
As you can see in the adjoining chart,no clarity has emerged regarding 3 wave or 5 wave form of Y.B.(a)
Now lets see what has happened inside Y.B(a) so far---
As you can see in the adjoining chart,no clarity has emerged regarding 3 wave or 5 wave form of Y.B.(a)If it goes below 5002 first, then 5 wave form of Y.B(a) would be confirmed.
If it goes above 5084 first,then 3 wave form of Y.B(a) would be confirmed.
If Y.B(a) turns out to be a 5 wave form, B is likely to be a ZZ.
If Y.B(a) turns out to be a 3 wave form, B is likely to be a FLAT.
Thats the importance of finding out a form of Y.B(a).
Raghu
Waah Raghuji, so nicely written, makes it so easy for any one in the learning stages of EW to comprehend.
ReplyDeleteHi Raghu ji,
ReplyDeleteOne small clarification needed please...
How did you arrive at 5003?
Thanks.
SMR
Raghu ji,
ReplyDeleteVery nicely explained the bigger picture. The way you have explained the probable waves and the levels at which they turn into possibilities, really helps one to devise suitable trading strategy.
Charts are a very nice addition :)
-yg
Dear Raghu ji,
ReplyDeleteIMHO, C5 is in progress.
Could you give the 5 fractals of Ya as counted by you?
Thanks,
-SF
Dear SMR,
ReplyDeleteIf you see the second chart (what has happened inside Y.B)
sw1=5160-5084=76;
sw2=5084-5127=43
sw3=5127-5111*
Now 1.618*sw1=1.618*76=123
Beginning of sw3=5127;
less 123=5004;
Usually when sw3 gets more than 1.618*sw1 we take the wave to be a 5 wave form,otherwise consider it a wave form.That's the importance & calculation for 5003.
Dear SF,
ReplyDeleteSubjectivity is the hallmark of EW.
So your considering the downmove from 5160 as C5 is natural.
If you go through previous two days posts,I have very clearly stated that my labeling of the move 4729-5160 as an Impulse Y.A is based entirely on the ferocity of upmove and its form. And because of the frequent gap-ups,it has not been possible to find 5 wave fractals for it.
Raghu
Dear Raghu ji,
ReplyDeleteI think, I goofed up by just saying C5 and caused confusion. What I meant was C4.c.c5, the 5th fractal of the impulse from 4728. This may be targetting 5180-5275 as .38-.62 of 4728-5160.
At this juncture, if I have to count C5, I would count it 5168 as 5168-4759-5160*. I am keeping this probability open till we see 5169 to our south.
Thanks,
-SF