Yesterday I wrote:
Q
Yesterday's upmove 5011-5148=137 was sw1 of Y.B(b).
Today I expect sw2=38.2% to 80 % of sw1 to play out.
That means the down-side is likely to be in the range 5040-5100.
UnQ
We have tested 5034 and moved up to test 5098 but does that mean sw2 over and sw3 in play?
-NO. NOT AT ALL.
-Why???
-sw2 being a corrective, did have this lower target but the form it has shown in achieving this target is not what should have been.
-Unhmm,what the hell is this----?
-See my dear. There are two guiding forces of EWs (as I understand them--):
1. Targets based on Fibonacci numbers;
2. Forms based on whether a Motive or Corrective is under consideration. If a Motive is in play it will take the form of Impulse or Diagonal; and if Corrective is in play it will take the form of a zig-zag,or flat or triangle or a combination of these.
- All this we know, but what about Nifty now?
- See, this sw2(a corrective) had a target of retracing sw1(an Impulse) by max. 80% of 5011-5148 i.e. 5038---
- And it did 5034 so now sw3 to the up should be in play-- doing sw3=sw1=137=5034+137=5171.
-Nahi, nahi,nahi---
-Kyun---???
-because sw2 has not followed the form of a corrective , it has come down from 5148 to 5034 as an Impulse.
-Then?
-That means either or Count is wrong or---
-or?
-sw2 is still continuing - doing a zig-zag having done
5148-5034=114
5034-5098=64(56%)--has done a 3 wave 5034-5074;5074-5053;5053-5098 ;may go up to 5117.
and then down by minimum 71.
-Yaar,ye sab kya hai----mujhe to bas ye batao kahan plus karoon aur kahan minus--
-Dekho bhai,apne yahaan har cheez double hai--
-kaise?
-Sukh bhi double--- count sahi hone ka aur munafa hone ka;
aur dukh bhi double-- Count galat hone ka aur ghata hone ka--
Baaki to melody khao,khud jaan jaao--- Please have a look at the charts as well--
HHHHHHHH
Dear Raghuji,
ReplyDeleteYour analysis is so clear and very helpful for people like me
Although i always like your posts today i am much impressed with your style of writing.
ReplyDeleteSo Dear Raghu ji where to short now?Regds.
ReplyDeleteRaghuji,
ReplyDeleteWe have been talking about W5 still pending? Is that count still on? Or that has changed?
Cheers!!
Dear Kamathakji & Vissuji,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your appreciation.
I try to present all questions and answers that come up in my mind and while presenting the answers,keep in mind the EW guidelines(and most of times mention these as well).
Basic purpose is see if a small trader like me can understand the daily Nifty play.
And despite hiccups,I find it has been quite rewarding.
Dear Animoitraji,
ReplyDeleteBest point to short is the end of an upwave.
Best point to long is the end of a downwave.
So simple ?!
But like so many waves & subwaves,your question has many sub-questions in it:
i)what is your trading instrument(Futures or options)?
ii)what is you appetite(i.e you play for 20 points or 200 points)?
iii)Do you hedge or use Stop-loss?
In the absence of these (& many other)information,it would not be prudent for me to advise any trade-initiation whatsoever.
And from my personal experience,trading is a different ball-game altogether from mkt.analysis and must be evolved on the basis of one's own personality & financial traits.
However,on a positional basis,one should SHORT at the end of sw3 of Y.B(b) and play for the downwave Y.B(c).And for tracking sw3 of Y.B(b) keep watching this space.
Regds,
Raghu
Dear Sachinji,
ReplyDeleteAap to bhai jaise Eid ke 'chanda' ho gaye --long time no see. Hope all is well at your end.
Yes,W5 to the down is still pending.
W4 is in play currently and after completing one set of ABC at 5034(when I thought W5 to the down would start)it decided to play a double combo(i.e.play out another set of ABC)and reversed from 4729 again.And in the process burnt many a pocket(including mine).
Best wishes,
Raghu
Nice stroke Raghu ji. Great going.
ReplyDeleteOn the ew front, wonder if YB.b.sw2 ends up as wxy...??? Possibilities don't seem to end.
Having seen the subfractals of C4, had another brainwave-
C4 as-
a: 4720-5169
b: sw1 : 5169-4759
b: sw2 : 4759-5160* in progress.
b.sw3 to down and c to up may still follow...??
Anything that rules out this possibility?
Thanks