Nifty: BOD 19.10.2011

As I mentioned in yesterday's evening post (see Nifty: EOD 18.10.2011 for details), we are in Wave Y.B(a) which may either have 3 subwaves or 5 subwaves. And for identifying whether this Y.B(a) from 5160 downwards is a 3 wave or a 5 wave form, 5084 and 5003 are most important levels.

Probability 1, shown in the chart on the left takes into consideration the situation when Nifty crosses 5084 upwards first.

Then Y.B(a) has to be seen as having ended at 5011 as a 3 wave form and Y.B(b) is more likely to retrace more than 80% of Y.B(a) , that is , may very well go above 5130 levels with Y.B more likely to play out as a FLAT.

Probability 2, shown in the chart on the right,
takes into consideration the situation when Nifty goes below 5003 first. Then Y.B(a) has to be seen as continuing as a 5 wave form which may continue down to 4960 before coming up as Y.B.(b).

In this scenario, Y.B is more likely to play out as a Zig-Zag.


Best of luck to all of you for a profitable trading day.

Raghu