Q
Now the count stands as:
W5 downwards from 5026 in 5 subwaves(SWs) for a tentative target of 615(=W1):
SW1=5026-4824=202
SW2=4824-4870=46(23%)
SW3=4870- down wards in 5 subwaves of its own haveng a minimum target of 1.62*202=327:
(i)=4870-4728=142
(ii)=4728-4791* in progress and now I would not hazard a guess for this (ii) other than that it can not go above 4870 as correctives can retrace 23.6% to 99.9%
And as soon as this (ii) is over ,(iii) shall bring it down by minimum 1.62*142=230 points
UnQ
And retaining my cautious attitude towards the Correctives and the nature of today's move,I still would say that it is not possible to categorically say whether SW3(ii) has ended. So just putting down the two options:
Option 1 : SW3(ii) ended at 4827 and SW3(iii) downwards started:
http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/7996/nifty510111.jpg
Option 2: Only SW3(ii).A has ended at 4827 as a three wave form. SW3(ii)B in progress and capable of going upto 138.2% of the A(=4728-4827) i.e can go up to 4690 and then come up again to do a SW3(ii).C and test 161.8% of A i.e can test 4850 again.
http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/9554/nifty51020112.jpg
Thus in both the counts an initial downmove is on the cards but then 4690 may see a sharp turnaround and move upto 4850.
Best wishes to all for a Happy Dussehra.
Raghu
Dear Raghuji,
ReplyDeleteAs a student of EW, may I ask your opinion if this 3rd option is a possibility: wave SW3(ii)B ended at 4740 today. And wave SW3(ii)C in progress with a minimum target of 4830 and max 4870
Beloved guruji,
ReplyDeleteLooked @ sub-fracs again.
Ur kind attention requested to one more option:-
sw3.ii(a) 4729 4828 99
sw3.ii(b) ** 4828 4751 -77 -77.8%
(b).a 4828 4741 -87
(b).b 4741 4792 51 -58.6%
(b).c 4792 4751 -41 47.1%
Tgts for (b).c
T 1 min = c=0.618xa = 4738
T 2 = c =a = 4705
T 3 max = c=1.618xa = 4651
Depending on where (b).c ends (above OR below 4729), we will know if we are in for an EXPANDED FLAT or ZZ :-)
sw3.ii(c) may be Yet to begin & will have a lot of OPTIONS depending on the FORM of b.(c)
:-)))))))))))))))))
urs
SMO
ooops......
ReplyDeleteSmall Error ... Pls ignore T 3 = 4651
Max b.(c) can do in an EXPANDED FLAT is limited to 4828-138.2%x(4828-4729) = 4691
So, possible options are Sw3.ii.b can do:-
1. Min 4738 & then ii.c starts UP (abc as ZZ)
2. Max 4691 & then ii.c starts UP (as EXP FLAT)
Phew... now i can relax :-)
urs
Dear SonuS,
ReplyDeleteThe 3rd Probability mentioned by you can not be concerned as B wave is always a 3 wave form and the move from 4827-4741 is not a 3 wave.
Dear Shri,
ReplyDeleteWhile it may be exciting and intellectually satisfying to go and discuss sub-sub waves of very small degrees,gradually you would realize that we should identify the "tradability" of waves being counted.
Best of luck--
Raghu
Shri and Raghu
ReplyDeleteLeaving aside the intellectual satisfaction part in the safe deposit locker.
IMHO Identifying the smaller fractals which have to validate the bigger ones is the heart of the art of surfing E-Wavez.
Illustration:
C3 pegged at 4720 which is also the start of C4.
The C itself is minor degree, so the fractals of C are minute degree.
C3 = impulsive - done 165%
C4 = corrective - looking for ABC
C4 = Minute degree and its fractalz = Minuette degree.
Minuette (a) + (b) + (c) = end of C4.
(a) can be imulpse or LD, (b) a corrective and (c) an impulse or corretive
the (a) and the (c) are absolutely impulsive and impressive but at the sub minuette degree, when it comes to 1 degree higher, they become part of zigzag.
What I am getting at is:
5944-5328 = can be 'i' or 'a'
5328-5740 = can be 'ii' or 'b'
5740-4720 = can be 'iii' or 'c'
If one can come up with a perfect count for the (a) + (b) + (c) for the fractals of C4. He has the game in his pocket.
When in KONFUZION - wait for the next move which will provide further directions.
The next move could be the C5 announcing its arrival at 4720 by going below it.
Or the C4 announcing its end by going over (a) or at least as close to (a)
I must encourage both of you to give due importance to the fractals. Just a suggestion. U guys are at liberty to count the way you intrepret the movements.
Little drops of water make the mighty ocean. Similarly the little waves are part of the big waves.
RULEZ apply to all degree of waves, right from the pico, nano,sub-micro,micro, sub-minuette, minuette to the GSC degree.
If the PD fractals are not validated by the ID fractals, we are bound to get caught on the wrong foot at some point of time.
Cheerz
Guruji today market is closed but sgx moved all the way to 4850 can this move to be calculated for EW count?
ReplyDeleteNow CW5 sw3 (ii)
a 4728- 4827 = 99
b 4827- 4741 = 86
c 4741- ??
For this count can we cosider today's sgx move or have to wait till market opens tomorrow.
Thanks in advence
UPS
guru ji,
ReplyDeletehow shud one find out "tradability" ?
Pls explain in detail, since i strive to trade wave to wave, just like u say
Also, did u find nything wrong in the count proposed for sw3.ii.b ?
urs
Dear Shri,
ReplyDeleteTradability , to me, means:
1. The difference between the entry point and and exit point and every trader has to decide at the time of entry as to how much upside or downside he/she is playing for.
2. And more important, is it worth the effort particularly when seen in the context of time & energy consumed?
The more microscopic you become,the more probabilities come into existence.
For example, suppose I am short from 5026 and I have a stop loss at 5027 and a target of 615 as we go down in 5 waves. As a trader I have option of continuing my shorts till 4411(5026-615) or play for SW1,SW2,SW3--likewise or still further the 5 subwaves of SW1 & 3 subwaves of SW2 or still further sub waves of a b c likewise----
And you would appreciate that as in any corrective the form taken can be a zz,or flat or triangle or even a combination of all these----
So as a trader(ultimately) one realises (at least I have) that for a less than 50 points move there is no point in initiating a trade so all waves or wave forms that play below this this levels need not be discussed beyond a point as their trade-worthiness is minimal.Once these have played out these can be seen to understand what form they had taken and that's all.
Now in current context, SW3 to the down started at 4869.6 with a minimum target of 327 as a 5 wave form of which (i)=4870-4728=142 is over(ii) is either over as a 3 wave zig-zag at 4827 or still playing out as a Flat. Considering these two options looks trade-worthy to me so I go inside B (in Flat option its maximum length is 1.382*99=137)and may try to trade B(a),B(b) and B(c). However I would not try to trade B(b) as corrective inside a corrective may prove too foxy for me. So I have to sit and watch as I see this B(b) playing.
This is what I mean by tradability--- as the time & energy consumed by this B(b) and its probabilities fail the test of time-worthiness.
And all this is IMHO. And my philosophy is now well publicised: To each his own.
Baaki toh --- lage raho--- HHHHHHH
Raghu
Dear UPS,
ReplyDeleteBasic EW funda is that each Chart has follows a pattern of its own and should be seen independently. So donot bother much about SGX Nifty ans concentrate on Nifty charts and counts.
BTW, SGX Nifty indicates Futures Contracts and have you checked the volumes?
To me ,4690 marks a threshold.It may repulse us and force us to revisit 4750 but 4400 is very much on cards.
Raghu
Dear Guruji(aka waverider),
ReplyDeleteI am seeing this dowmove from 5026 as W5 (of the larger degree wave started from 5944 downwards).
And to avoid getting stumped,I am putting SLs. First it was at 5027.
Currently at 4870 and once we go below 4690,I shall put it at 4728 and the target remains 4410.
Thanks for showering your love and blessings.
Regards,
Raghu
Beloved Guruji,
ReplyDeletethank u taking out time & writing the LONG message!
My trading style is similar, but i need to be a better trader, there is no doubt that my DNA is primarily encoded for a BEAR. So i miss many upswings !
Aapka marg-darshan mila hein,ab yehi asha hein ki i will also transform from RA-ONE to G-1 sooner rather than later ;-D
kal milenge !
urs
Guruji,
ReplyDeleteSGX Nifty closed @ 4868, 100 pts UP !
is there something different those guys r seeing ?? :-O
urs