First the chart:
http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/6640/nifty14102011.png
Now the details
X=5026-4729
Y=4729-5045-4965-5141* in progress and so far:
A= 4729-5045=316
a=4729-4923=194
b=4923-4861=62
c=4861-5045=184
B= 5045-4965=82
a=5045-4992=53
b=4992-5018=26
c=5018-4965=53
C=4965---upwards as 5 wave form ; Target minimum 0.618*A=196=5161 or C=A=316=5281
(i)=4965-5056.15=92
(ii)=5057-4998=59
(iii)=4998-5136= 138 [150% of (i)]
(iv)=5136-5056.6=80
a = 5136-5078=58
b = 5078-5128=50
c= 5128-5056.6=71
(v)=5056.6-5141* likely target 5206 [=1.62*(i) as (iii) was not extended so I am expecting this (v) to extend]
of its 5 subwaves,this (v) has played out:
sw1=5057-5102=45
sw2=5102-5072.75=29
sw3=5072-5141* in play
Stop-loss for all longs, therefore, should be at 5072.
However, the "yaksha-prashna" remains whether to label this 3 wave upmove from 4729-5141* as Y (as I have been doing so far) or based on its form so far,should I call it Y.A.
Now that we are towards the last leg of this wave(likely to go past 5206,though),I am getting more inclined to label it as Y.A with Y.B and Y.C to follow. And whether they would cause this Y to fan out as a ZZ or Flat remains a wild guess. We shall have to watch the downmove (expected anytime after crossing 5206) to list out the probabilities.
Have a great week-end.
Raghu
Beloved guruji,
ReplyDeleteVery innocent doubt,
Wot if the W was a 3 wave A & X was a 3wave B ?? :-)
Cant we maintain the fractals & count 4729 Upwards as a 5 wave C ?
Wot is tipping the balance in favour of a WXY move ?? Can we look @ this as simple ABC ?
A: 4720-5034
B: 5034-4729
C: 4729-5132** in play as a 5wave
urs
Dear Raghu Ji,
ReplyDeleteFractals from 4862-5045 do not look like a 5 fractal impulse. Kindly have a look at this variation and give your valuable opinion. I am counting C3.4.c from 4728 like this:
c1 4728 - 4828 = 100
c2 4828 - 4741 = 87 0.870
c3 4741 - 5141 * = 400 4.000 This can go to 5159 at 4.18 of c1
Fractals of c3:
c3.1 4741 - 4922 = 181
c3.2 4922 - 4862 = 60 0.331
c3.3 4862 - 5141* = 279 1.541 This can go to 5155 at 1.68 0f c3.1
Fractals of c3.3:
c3.3.1 4862 - 4962 = 100
c3.3.2 4962 - 4933 = 29 0.290
c3.3.3 4933 - 5045 = 112 1.120
c3.3.4 5045 - 4965 = 80 0.714
c3.3.5 4965 - 5141* = 176 1.760 This Should go to 5155 where it does 1.9 of c3.3.1
Fractals of c3.3.5:
c3.3.5.1 4965 - 5044 = 79
c3.3.5.2 5044 - 4998 = 46 0.582
c3.3.5.3 4998 - 5136 = 138 1.747
c3.3.5.4 5136 - 5057 = 79 0.572
c3.3.5.5 5057 - 5141* = 84 1.063 This Should go to 5155 where it does 1.24 of c3.3.5.1
Fractals of c3.3.5.5:
c3.3.5.5.1 5057 - 5102 = 45
c3.3.5.5.2 5102 - 5073 = 29 0.644
c3.3.5.5.3 5073 - 5141* = 68 1.511 This Should go to 5148 where it does 1.67 of c3.3.5.5.1
Fractals of c3.3.5.5.3:
c3.3.5.5.3.1 5073 - 5114 = 41
c3.3.5.5.3.2 5114 - 5079 = 35 0.854
c3.3.5.5.3.3 5079 - 5141* = 62 1.512 This Should go to 5146 where it does 1.63 of c3.3.5.5.3.1
Phew....Hope it makes sense and fits the fractals.
I feel a break above 5196 and a move below 4950 is unlikely in this expiry. If these counts are correct, there are many 2s and 4s that will surface and keep the nifty range bound, till it finally completes C3.4 and breaks out
-SF
Alt labels pls:-
ReplyDeleteC.4.A: 4720 5034 314
C.4.B: 5034 4729 -305 -97.1%
C.4.C: 4729 5132 403 128.3% in play
w1 4729 4828 99
w2 4828 4741 -87 -87.9%
w3 4741 5045 304 307.1%
w4 5045 4965 -80 -26.3%
w5 4965 5132 167 168.7% in play
ssw1 4965 5056 91
ssw2 5056 4998 -58 -63.7%
ssw3 4998 5136 138 151.6%
ssw4 5136 5057 -79 -57.2%
ssw5 5057 5137 80
i 5057 5102 45
ii 5102 5079 -23 -51.1%
iii 5079 5137 58 128.9%
iv 5137 5116 -21 -36.2% in play
v 5116 5132 16 35.6% in play
Tgts:
T1: 5178 (v=138.2% x i, C.3.4.C=143.1% x A
T2: 5189 (v=161.8% x i, C.3.4.C=146.4% x A)
T3: 5217 (v=225% x i, C.3.4.C=155.5% x A)
Dear Shri & SF,
ReplyDeleteNoone's love is more pious than others.
The waves are there for everyone to see and count.
I donot see myself as above anyone else to become a judge and start finding faults.
I exhort both of you to kindly follow your counts on daily basis and see if these come true or not.And that's the best part of counting Nifty live.
My counts are based on my understandings and I can never claim that my understanding is better than yours or somebody else.
My contribution, if any, has been to get you introduced to EW and that's all.How you count is entirely your prerogative.My only request to Shriramokaji is that he has a tendency of being repetitive which is not required.I have discussed earlier at least 3-4 times that I am not able to convince myself of the move 4720-5169-4759-5034-4729--upwards as a simple ABC and please allow me the liberty of having my own conclusions.
No offence intended.
Raghu
Best of luck
HHAHAH....Guruji,
ReplyDeleteMein Thoda sa mand buddhi hoon , sorry to test ur patience :-)
Not trying to impose any view, just wanted to be sure if u had totally ruled out ABC.
Now ur label is crystal clear to me, thank u :-)
urs
Hello Shri, Could you please also include me in the googlegroup. My ID on MMB is verash if you would remember. Thanks!
ReplyDeleteHHHHHHHHH
ReplyDeletehi verash,
ReplyDeletepls send across ur gmail ID by PM
rgds
Dear Shri,
ReplyDeletePM sent through MMB. I had no idea how to send you through here. Thanks a lot!
Sorry Raghu Sir for using your blog for this communication.