Y.B started from 5160 to retrace Y.A(=4729-5160) in 3 waves.These 3 waves of Y.B have been termed by me as Y.B(a),Y.B(b) and Y.B(c) and as mentioned yesterday,
Y.B(a) can be either a 3 wave or 5 wave;
Y.B(b) can be a 3 wave;
Y.B(c) can be a 5 wave.
And the importance of Y.B(a) being a 3 wave or 5 wave lies in the guideline that if it is a 3 wave, Y.B as a whole will be most likely a FLAT and if it is a 5 wave, Y.B will be a ZIG-ZAG.
And I mentioned in today's morning post:
Q
when Nifty crosses 5084 upwards first.
Then Y.B(a) has to be seen as having ended at 5011 as a 3 wave form and Y.B(b) is more likely to retrace more than 80% of Y.B(a) , that is , may very well go above 5130 levels with Y.B more likely to play out as a FLAT.
UnQ
And lo--- it happened. With a tick above 5084 in the very Ist minute of trade, it got confirmed that Y.B(a) ended as a 3 wave after doing 5160-5011= 149. And following the guideline,Y.B(b) also has done more than 5130 to set Y.B as a Flat.
But Y.B(b) is not over as yet. As mentioned earlier,this Y.B(b) had to be a 3 wave form and as is apparent from the Chart on the right,this
upmove from 5011-5148 was a 5 wave form which qualifies only
upmove from 5011-5148 was a 5 wave form which qualifies only
as sw1 of Y.B(b) with sw2(downwards) and sw3(upwards) still
to follow.
to follow.
And for Y.B to become an Expanded Flat, this Y.B(b) can very
well do upto 1.382*Y.B(a)=1.382*149=206=5216
So, we may see a downmove tomorrow morning as sw2 of Y.B(b)
only to come upwards and breach the fort-like 5169 as sw3 of Y.B(b) but not go above 5216.
And what a complex sideways move this is turning out to be.
See you all tomorrow morning with Beginning of 20.10.2011 post.
Raghu
Dear Raghu ji !
ReplyDeleteNeed to give a rethought !
1. 5011-5148=137 five wave termed as SW-1 of Y.B(b)
2. Y.B(b) cant go over then 5216
Now the puzzle :
Sw:2 can not retrace more down then 5010
to be followed by SW-3 ( which should be minimum 137 * 1.618=222
add 222 to 5010=5223( kood banda par from 5216)
& still W-4 & W-5 remains to play.( though they can be done ghusud pusud in each other)
E&OE
IMHO
No offence intended !
Dear Raghuji
ReplyDeletewhat are the shorting levels for nifty
vineeta
So, we may see a downmove tomorrow morning as sw2 of Y.B(b)
ReplyDeleteonly to come upwards and breach the fort-like 5169 as sw3 of Y.B(b) but not go above 5216.
Great Analysis :D
Dear Lalu ji,
ReplyDeleteIf I may butt in.
YB.b, as marked by Raghu ji, is a 3 wave corrective, say sw 1, 2 and 3.
In this, sw1 has done 5 fractals, indicating a ZZ. Hence, sw2 should do .38-.62 of sw1, limiting the downside to roughly 5060. Sw3 can do as much as sw1 Amost likely) or may do .62-1.62 of sw1. So the most common value comes to roughly 5197.
Thereafter, the YB.c can do upto 2.62 of YB.a.
Sw4 and sw5 will not be there, if it is a b wave.
Hope I made sense.
@Raghu ji,
Sorry for intrusion. Do correct me if there are any errors. Thanks
Thanks Laluji & SF for your responses.It makes me feel that there are people who are reading my counts and analysing them.
ReplyDeleteAnd it gives me a real high.
Was a bit surpised to see Laluji's response mentioning " SW-3 ( which should be minimum 137 * 1.618=222 ". May be he missed the point that we are discussing sw3 of a higher degree 3 wave Y.B(b) which is most likely to be a Zig-Zag.
Hope the query has been satisfactorily answered.
Dear Vinitaji,
ReplyDeleteMy main aim to write this blog is to discuss the possible direction of the market based on EW patterns and I deliberately avoid giving trading tips.
Pl pardon me for that.
Dear Dineshji,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your appreciation.
If you like the analysis, do join us in our learning process.
It is great to trade on the basis of our own analysis---even the losses incurred pinch less as they raise the level of our learning by asking us----"where did you go wrong?"
Raghuvanshi Ji
ReplyDeleteGreeting of the day!!!!!
& thanks for inviting me to join
I would sure like to learn EW,
Actually I am positional trader so would like to start with
Primary & Intermediate waves
Thanks once again :D
Will mail u this weekend
Dear Raghuvanshi ji !
ReplyDelete1.Yes ! I missed that the mention was of 3 wave (b)
Actually the Nomenclature of sub waves as SW, has dragged me in misunderstanding !My Bad !
actually instead of you, I should have gone for a 2nd thought.
2. As I am writing this note after reading your
BOD post of 20th, so please refer to that
post, can you please post here the details of
sub waves of SW-1 of Y.B(b) numerically.
You know, would be helpful in practicing the
riding of waves.