Nifty:Food for Thought

Dear friends,

Would like your kind attention be drawn towards the chart here wherein the Island Reversal pattern and testing of Upper Trendline both indicate the Upward bias that Nifty has acquired.

And the next two days would be crucial for deciding whether the gap-up gets filled(and Nifty gets back into the sideways zone) or Trendline gets broken(and uptrend gets formally in play).

Meanwhile, for EW followers, my sincere advice would be to go a degree higher(and not lower as my friend UPS has been insisting) and start Counting from highs of January 2008.That only shall be able to give us meaningful answer.

My attempts at EW would also be out after sometime.

Please acknowledge momentum and donot go against it. Patterns (EW or otherwise) would fall in place sooner or later.

Raghu

Nifty:EOD 28.10.2011

Dear Friends,

The above chart is self explanatory.

And I need some more time to ponder over the fresh pattern and come up with a better idea of how to count the fresh pattern.

Although the previous Count mentioned taking long positions above 5170 but its framework had no scope for crossing 5329 & closing above 5349.

See you all sooner than later.

Raghu

Nifty:Beginning 28.10.2011

Just repeating words from previous post:

Q

Y.A=4728-5160=432

Y.B=5160-5011=149(35%)

Y.C=5011 upwards in play with minimum target of 0.618*Y.A=268=5280

and----- 5328 should not be broken for our higher degree count to remain valid.

UnQ

Raghu

PS: As an afterthought, it is 12.00N dt. 28.10.2011, I recall that the Count for C1 ending at 5328 was based upon Closing values ( as L/H values were not able to fit in the pattern of Expanded Flat for C2),that (closing)value for C1 was 5348.8.

So let's wait to see what EOD brings forth.A close above 5349 would mean INVALIDATION of this count.

Nifty: EOD 25.10.2011

Phew,what a day.

Stopped out twice.

Once at 5146 and then again at 5170.

And crossing 5170 was a clear indication that Nifty has changed tracks and we have to do accordingly.

The momentum with which 5169 has been taken out is a clear indication that now we will have to count the upmove from 5011 as Y.C which shall play out as a 5 wave form. Therefore:

Y.A=4728-5160=432

Y.B=5160-5011=149(35%)

Y.C=5011 upwards in play with minimum target of 0.618*Y.A=268=5280 and shall play out in 5 waves --sw1,sw2,sw3,sw4,sw5- of which it has played put:

sw1=5011-5148=137

sw2=5148-5034=114(83%)[ 5148-5034-5120-5038]

sw3=5038- upwards in play shall do minimum 5260(=1.62*137) having done so far

5038-5146=108

5146-5085

5085-5210* and minimum to go upto 5260

Thus on the lower side 5146-5148 have become sort of barriers till this Y.C gets completed.

I wonder how many of you went long when Nifty went above 5170--

To conclude, let me reiterate:

1.Y.C in play;

2.Minimum Target for this Y.C is 5280;

3. Currently sw3 of Y.C in play which would do minimum 5260 (tom. we may even open at this level);

4. Last,but not the least, 5328 should not be broken for our higher degree count to remain valid.

Best wishes for a happy & prosperous Deepawali.

Raghu

Nifty: Beginning 25.10.2011

First of all,let me remind you of two most important events due today:

1.RBI policy announcement;

2. October series settlement.

Now please have a look at the EOD chart on the left.

Y.A=4728-5160=432

Y.B (in play currently) can retrace 23.6% to 99.9% of Y.A

Such a huge range for the retracing wave makes the study of its sub-waves necessary.

This Y.B,when it started had the probability of taking any Corrective form--zig-zag,flat,triangle or a combination of these.

As we have been following it consistently,its subwaves:

Y.B(a)=5160-5011=149

Y.B(b)=5011-5148=137(92%) have given a clear indication that Y.B is playing out as a Flat.

And based upon 92% retracement by Y.B(b) of Y.B(a), its very likely that Y.B shall fan out as a Regular Flat wherein Y.B(c)= Y.B(a)=149 so the most likely target for Y.B(c) is 4997.

However, it would be prudent to keep in mind that

Minimum for this Y.B(c) is 0.618*Y.B(a)=0.618*149=92=5054

Maximum for this Y.B(c) is 1.618*Y.B(a)=1.618*149=241=4905

Now lets have a look at Y.B(c) as it has fanned out so far. Please have
a look at the chart on the right.

This Y.B(c) has to be a 5 wave form-sw1 to sw5.

To me it appears sw1=5146-5185=61 has got played yesterday as:

5146-5128=18

5128-5143=15

5143-5090=53

5090-5103=13

5103-5085=18

And sw2=5085-5106* is in play capable of going up to 5145.

Now building upon this probability,wherein sw2 does 5085-5145 we find that sw3,which has to do a minimum 1.62*sw1= 1.62*61=99=5047(5146-99), sw4 cannot go above 5085 and then sw5= min. 0.618*sw1=0.618*61=38=5046(5084-38)

Thus a minimum 5046 level is ensured even for the most conservative Y.B(c),hypothetically built here.

But do keep in mind that maximum of 4905 is also a probability in case of a harsh RBI tone.

And then, as soon as this Y.B(c) ends, we shall embark upon a SHARP UPMOVE as Y.C.

Please ensure that your shorts are not caught on the wrong foot.

Best of luck.

Raghu

Nifty : EOD 24.10.2011

I mentioned in Friday's EOD post:

Q

And now Y.B(b). sw3 upwards has started.

Minimum target=0.618*sw1=0.618*137=85=5123

Normal Target=sw1=137+5038=5175

So it seems even in this round to the up, 5169 would remain unbroken.

UnQ

And again today morning:

Q

After the gap-up, particularly if we open above 5110,we are likely to see a 3 wave downmove and then a 5 wave upmove which is most likely to take us past 5148 but least likely to go above 5169.

UnQ

Missed 5148 by a whisker but that doesnot prevent me from proclaiming "Jai ho EW ki".

And for those of you who are keen to notice the " 3 wave downmove and then a 5 wave upmove which is most likely to take us past 5148", today's intraday chart is being presented here.

Now that Y.B(b) has ended and Y.B(c) downwards has started, let us discuss the likely down wards target for this Y.B(c) which has started today from 5146 downwards:

Y.B(a)=5160-5011=149

Y.B(b)=5011-5148=137(92%); Thus the likely form of this Y.B is a Regular Flat

Y.B(c) = 5 wave form with a target of (5146-149) = 4997 is most likely with minimum target being 5146-93=5053 and maximum being 5146-238=4907.

Keeping in mind sw1=5146-5085=61 played today by this Y.B(c) , the most likely target is 4987.

Those who have got initiated into EW would do well to count 5 subwaves of this Y.B(c).

However in case of a Gap-Down opening,again this may not be possible so one should safely play for targets of 4987-4997.

EOD chart has been labelled countwise in following manner.

See you all tomorrow morning with intra-day probabilities.

Raghu

Nifty:Beginning 24.10.2011

Please look at the chart above to have a grasp of the Count,how we are placed today and what is likely to follow.

The subwave YB(b).sw3,likely to unfold today has minimum target of 5125 but maximum possible is 5216.In this wide range how to pin-point the end of it?

One simplest way is to look for 5 wave fractals,starting from 5038 upwards.

However,if there is a gap-up opening(as has become a routine affair nowadays),it would not be possible to count exact 5 waves from 5038 upwards. To overcome this difficulty, have a close look at the chart below:

In this chart,I have tried to project the likely wave forms that are expected to unfold after a gap-up opening-----

After the gap-up, particularly if we open above 5110,we are likely to see a 3 wave downmove and then a 5 wave upmove which is most likely to take us past 5148 but least likely to go above 5169. And that should be the point to square-off longs and start shorts.

Tomorrow being the Series Expiry day, all Intra-day traders going for October series must play for only In the Money options as Nifty management would be highest and Out of the Money options will definitely find themselves stranded.

Best of luck for today's trades.

Raghu

Nifty:EOD 21.10.2011

Continuing with my morning post:

Q

Just to recall the Counts:

Y.A=4729-5160=431

Y.B in progress as Y.B(a),Y.B(b) and Y.B(c).

Y.B(a)=5160-5011=149

Y.B(b) in progress as a 3 wave form:And seen on the chart here:

YB(b).sw1=5011-5148

YB(b).sw2= in progress as a 3 wave

5148-5034

5034-5098* may go up to 5117

Down by minimum 71 points but most likely upto 5032

Y.B(b).sw3 to follow upwards by minimum 93 points.

so today's range is likely to be

5117-5032-5125

UnQ

All I can say is--"Jai ho EW kee---

Now,Y.B(b).sw2 is over as a 3 wave form:

5148-5034

5034-5120( a 3 wave form: 5034-5106; 5106-5070;5070-5120)

5120-5038

And now Y.B(b). sw3 upwards has started.

Minimum target=0.618*sw1=0.618*137=85=5123

Normal Target=sw1=137+5038=5175

So it seems even in this round to the up, 5169 would remain unbroken. EOD charts as they appear now are depicted below.

See you all on Monday morning.

Raghu

Nifty : Beginning 21.10.2011

Just to recall the Counts:

Y.A=4729-5160=431

Y.B in progress as Y.B(a),Y.B(b) and Y.B(c).

Y.B(a)=5160-5011=149

Y.B(b) in progress as a 3 wave form:

YB(b).sw1=5011-5148

YB(b).sw2= in progress as a 3 wave

5148-5034

5034-5098* may go up to 5117

Down by minimum 71 points but most likely upto 5032

Y.B(b).sw3 to follow upwards by minimum 93 points.

so today's range is likely to be

5117-5032-5125

Raghu

Nifty : EOD 20.10.2011

Yesterday I wrote:

Q

Yesterday's upmove 5011-5148=137 was sw1 of Y.B(b).

Today I expect sw2=38.2% to 80 % of sw1 to play out.

That means the down-side is likely to be in the range 5040-5100.

UnQ

We have tested 5034 and moved up to test 5098 but does that mean sw2 over and sw3 in play?

-NO. NOT AT ALL.

-Why???

-sw2 being a corrective, did have this lower target but the form it has shown in achieving this target is not what should have been.

-Unhmm,what the hell is this----?

-See my dear. There are two guiding forces of EWs (as I understand them--):

1. Targets based on Fibonacci numbers;

2. Forms based on whether a Motive or Corrective is under consideration. If a Motive is in play it will take the form of Impulse or Diagonal; and if Corrective is in play it will take the form of a zig-zag,or flat or triangle or a combination of these.

- All this we know, but what about Nifty now?

- See, this sw2(a corrective) had a target of retracing sw1(an Impulse) by max. 80% of 5011-5148 i.e. 5038---

- And it did 5034 so now sw3 to the up should be in play-- doing sw3=sw1=137=5034+137=5171.

-Nahi, nahi,nahi---

-Kyun---???

-because sw2 has not followed the form of a corrective , it has come down from 5148 to 5034 as an Impulse.

-Then?

-That means either or Count is wrong or---

-or?

-sw2 is still continuing - doing a zig-zag having done

5148-5034=114

5034-5098=64(56%)--has done a 3 wave 5034-5074;5074-5053;5053-5098 ;may go up to 5117.

and then down by minimum 71.

-Yaar,ye sab kya hai----mujhe to bas ye batao kahan plus karoon aur kahan minus--

-Dekho bhai,apne yahaan har cheez double hai--

-kaise?

-Sukh bhi double--- count sahi hone ka aur munafa hone ka;

aur dukh bhi double-- Count galat hone ka aur ghata hone ka--

Baaki to melody khao,khud jaan jaao--- Please have a look at the charts as well--

HHHHHHHH

Nifty: Beginning 20.10.2011

The wave Y.B(b),shown in the chart on the left, is expected to play out as a Zig-Zag,termed sw1,sw2 ,sw3(of Y.B.(b).

Yesterday's upmove 5011-5148=137 was sw1 of Y.B(b).

Today I expect sw2=38.2% to 80 % of sw1 to play out.

That means the down-side is likely to be in the range 5040-5100.

And that's a wide range.

So I would choose the Golden 61.8% mark=5063 as the ideal destination for this sw2.

Then sw3 to the up should start as the last leg of this Zig-Zag-Y.B(b) with the most likely target of sw3=sw1=137=(5063+137=5200).

To say anything more than this would not be prudent.

Best of luck friends.

Raghu

Nifty: EOD 19.10.2011

Y.B started from 5160 to retrace Y.A(=4729-5160) in 3 waves.

These 3 waves of Y.B have been termed by me as Y.B(a),Y.B(b) and Y.B(c) and as mentioned yesterday,

Y.B(a) can be either a 3 wave or 5 wave;

Y.B(b) can be a 3 wave;

Y.B(c) can be a 5 wave.

And the importance of Y.B(a) being a 3 wave or 5 wave lies in the guideline that if it is a 3 wave, Y.B as a whole will be most likely a FLAT and if it is a 5 wave, Y.B will be a ZIG-ZAG.

And I mentioned in today's morning post:

Q

when Nifty crosses 5084 upwards first.

Then Y.B(a) has to be seen as having ended at 5011 as a 3 wave form and Y.B(b) is more likely to retrace more than 80% of Y.B(a) , that is , may very well go above 5130 levels with Y.B more likely to play out as a FLAT.

UnQ

And lo--- it happened. With a tick above 5084 in the very Ist minute of trade, it got confirmed that Y.B(a) ended as a 3 wave after doing 5160-5011= 149. And following the guideline,Y.B(b) also has done more than 5130 to set Y.B as a Flat.

But Y.B(b) is not over as yet. As mentioned earlier,this Y.B(b) had to be a 3 wave form and as is apparent from the Chart on the right,this
upmove from 5011-5148 was a 5 wave form which qualifies only

as sw1 of Y.B(b) with sw2(downwards) and sw3(upwards) still
to follow.

And for Y.B to become an Expanded Flat, this Y.B(b) can very

well do upto 1.382*Y.B(a)=1.382*149=206=5216

So, we may see a downmove tomorrow morning as sw2 of Y.B(b)

only to come upwards and breach the fort-like 5169 as sw3 of Y.B(b) but not go above 5216.

And what a complex sideways move this is turning out to be.

See you all tomorrow morning with Beginning of 20.10.2011 post.

Raghu

Nifty: BOD 19.10.2011

As I mentioned in yesterday's evening post (see Nifty: EOD 18.10.2011 for details), we are in Wave Y.B(a) which may either have 3 subwaves or 5 subwaves. And for identifying whether this Y.B(a) from 5160 downwards is a 3 wave or a 5 wave form, 5084 and 5003 are most important levels.

Probability 1, shown in the chart on the left takes into consideration the situation when Nifty crosses 5084 upwards first.

Then Y.B(a) has to be seen as having ended at 5011 as a 3 wave form and Y.B(b) is more likely to retrace more than 80% of Y.B(a) , that is , may very well go above 5130 levels with Y.B more likely to play out as a FLAT.

Probability 2, shown in the chart on the right,
takes into consideration the situation when Nifty goes below 5003 first. Then Y.B(a) has to be seen as continuing as a 5 wave form which may continue down to 4960 before coming up as Y.B.(b).

In this scenario, Y.B is more likely to play out as a Zig-Zag.


Best of luck to all of you for a profitable trading day.

Raghu

Nifty : EOD 18.10.2011

First of all a look at the larger picture.

As the Chart above shows Y.A ended after traversing 4729-5160=431 points.

As Y.A was an Impulse so likelihood of Y being a Zig-Zag is very high, i.e. Y.B is likely to retrace 38.2 to 79% of Y.A

Y.B to the down started as a 3 wave form(ZZ or Flat or a Combo yet to know) from 5160 down.

Tentative targets for Y.B are 38.2% of Y.A (4955) to 79% of Y.A(4820).

Now lets see what has happened inside Y.B so far:

As a 3 wave form Y.B has to fan out as Y.B(a),Y.B(b) and Y.B(c).

While Y.B(a) can be either a 3 wave or 5 wave, Y.B(b) has to be a 3 wave and Y.B(c) has to be a 5 wave.

Now lets see what has happened inside Y.B(a) so far---

As you can see in the adjoining chart,no clarity has emerged regarding 3 wave or 5 wave form of Y.B.(a)

If it goes below 5002 first, then 5 wave form of Y.B(a) would be confirmed.

If it goes above 5084 first,then 3 wave form of Y.B(a) would be confirmed.

If Y.B(a) turns out to be a 5 wave form, B is likely to be a ZZ.

If Y.B(a) turns out to be a 3 wave form, B is likely to be a FLAT.

Thats the importance of finding out a form of Y.B(a).

Raghu

Nifty: BOD 18.10.2011

While EOD analysis are more like post-mortems, BOD(Beginning of Day) is more about probabilities in the new trading day. Most important Nifty levels for the day are 5051 & 5002.

While 5051 is almost certain to be tested,if we go below 5002 that would mean that Nifty is gearing up for testing 4930-4880 also.

Best of luck for the day.

Raghu

Nifty EOD 17.10.2011: Corrective WXY not over as yet

Dear Friends,

Continuing from my previous post wherein I have listed my reasons and process of labeling the current sideways move from 26/8/2011 onwards as WXY in detail,at EOD 17.10.2011 the situation remains same with the first indication that Y.A may be over at 5160.

Initially I was tempted to label the current upmove as a zig-zag Y= ABC with

A=4729-5045=316

B=5045-4965=80

C=4965-5160=195(61.7% of A)

But the clear fractals of A,as shown in the chart below,defy its labeling as A.

I am labeling the current upmove as Y.A as its ferocity and form give it out as Impulse,though its fractals as a 5 wave form as yet are not clear to me. And , therefore I'm not able to say with any conviction if it has ended or will continue its upmove tomorrow as well,though its sideways move during most of the day indicates that much steam is not left in it.

What follows an Impulse Y.A is a Y.B in 3 wave form capable of retracing 38.2% to 79% of Y.A

Then Y.C to the up again.

Thats all I can say at present.

Raghu

Nifty: Failure to find a Suitable Pattern so far

Dear Friends,

The sideways move going on since 26/8/2011 has been posted alongside.

However,till date I have not been able to fit it into a fully satisfying patterns like ABC or WXY.

Here, trying to share my thought-process on this sideways move with you, I have tried to line-out the Impulses(depicted in blue lines) and Correctives(3 wave forms-depicted in red lines).

Most conspicuous thing is that none of the Impulses have the "ideal" 5 wave fractals and I have to term these Impulses because of the ferocity of the move(up or down).

Now sharing the labeling process with all of you. The first label was an ABC which was an irregular flat(or a running flat) with C(=4758.85-5034.25=275.4) being 2 points short of 0.618*A (A=4720-5169.25=449.25). On Charts this label could be seen as:

http://img41.imageshack.us/img41/9131/nifty2.png

(I tried pasting this chart here but couldnot so please go to the link)

Now continuing the labeling part further, this ABC(mentioned above) was supposed to be the end of Corrective but as it turned out later,this corrective decided to do a Double Combination called WXY where the downmove from 5034-4729 also turned out to be a 3wave form which was labeled X and then the charts could be seen as

http://img408.imageshack.us/img408/875/nifty3.png

Then the Y (another corrective form) started from 4729 upwards and its form so far has confirmed its impulsive nature(which points to the current wave 4729-5141 being Y.A) but proper (5 wave)fractals for this Y.A have so far eluded me. So all I have been able to do so far has been calling this upmove as Y.A and not able to fix any target for this Y.A so far But this Impulse form of Y.A( as against the 3 wave form suggested by me till this day) suggests that this Y would be a Zig-Zag(i.e Y.B to go down & Y.C to come up again) ,quite capable of traversing to 5300+ levels.

We may go down as Y.B but would not retrace more than 80% of Y.A and then come up again as Y.C.

So I am ending this post with following chart:

http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/4537/nifty4.png

And a word of caution for all friends that this sideways Corrective started from 4720 may continue for some more time as Y.B and Y.C

Also this Y.B may do only 38.2% retracement of Y.A( or may be 76.4% who knows?) so kindly bear it in mind.

Best of luck.

Raghu

Nifty EOD 14.10.2011

Continuing my WXY count for W4 from 4720 upwards:

First the chart:

http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/6640/nifty14102011.png

Now the details

W=4720-5169(=449) though it ended at 5026.

X=5026-4729

Y=4729-5045-4965-5141* in progress and so far:

A= 4729-5045=316

a=4729-4923=194

b=4923-4861=62

c=4861-5045=184

B= 5045-4965=82

a=5045-4992=53

b=4992-5018=26

c=5018-4965=53

C=4965---upwards as 5 wave form ; Target minimum 0.618*A=196=5161 or C=A=316=5281

(i)=4965-5056.15=92

(ii)=5057-4998=59

(iii)=4998-5136= 138 [150% of (i)]

(iv)=5136-5056.6=80

a = 5136-5078=58

b = 5078-5128=50

c= 5128-5056.6=71

(v)=5056.6-5141* likely target 5206 [=1.62*(i) as (iii) was not extended so I am expecting this (v) to extend]

of its 5 subwaves,this (v) has played out:

sw1=5057-5102=45

sw2=5102-5072.75=29

sw3=5072-5141* in play

Stop-loss for all longs, therefore, should be at 5072.

However, the "yaksha-prashna" remains whether to label this 3 wave upmove from 4729-5141* as Y (as I have been doing so far) or based on its form so far,should I call it Y.A.

Now that we are towards the last leg of this wave(likely to go past 5206,though),I am getting more inclined to label it as Y.A with Y.B and Y.C to follow. And whether they would cause this Y to fan out as a ZZ or Flat remains a wild guess. We shall have to watch the downmove (expected anytime after crossing 5206) to list out the probabilities.

Have a great week-end.

Raghu

Nifty EOD 13.10.2011

Continuing my WXY count for W4 from 4720 upwards:

First the chart:

http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/4471/nifty13102011.png

Now the details

W=4720-5169(=449) though it ended at 5026.

X=5026-4729

Y=4729-5045-4965-5136-5068* in progress and so far:

A= 4729-5045=316

a=4729-4923=194

b=4923-4861=62

c=4861-5045=184

B= 5045-4965=82

a=5045-4992=53

b=4992-5018=26

c=5018-4965=53

C=4965---upwards as 5 wave form ; Target minimum 0.618*A=196=5161 or C=A=316=5281

(i)=4965-5057=92

(ii)=5057-4998=59

(iii)=4998-5136= 138 [150% of (i)]

(iv)=5136-5068*=68

a = 5136-5078=58

b = 5078-5128=50

c= 5128-5068=60

(v) and last leg to the up yet to play

As (iii) should have played out minimum 162% of (i), its remaining restricted to 150% of (i) was a set-back to the counts.

Does it indicate an extended (v)?

That should mean a run up to 5217.

My friend Shriramoka has expressed doubts over the character of this Y.

And I agree with him. Instead of being a Y=winding ABC it is too fast and straight( more like an A or a C wave).

So we must look at this move from 4729 to 5137 as Y.A also-- with Y.B and Y.C yet to follow.

In such a scenario:

Y.A can fan out as a 5 wave or a 3 wave---

I am keeping my fingers crossed as "characterwise" the current move from 4729 to 5137 has not satisfied the "winding" nature of Y.

All longs must keep SL at 5056.

Raghu

Nifty EOD 12.10.2011

Continuing my WXY count for W4 from 4720 upwards:

First on the Charts:

http://img827.imageshack.us/img827/1870/nifty12102011.png

Now the datails:

W=4720-5169(=449) though it ended at 5026.

And then X = 5026 - 4729 as a 3 wave:

a=5026-4824=202

b=4824-4870=46(23%)

c=4870-4729=150(71.5% of a)

On hourly charts this a =5026-4824( C of W made a high of 5034 but ended at 5026 so a of X has been taken as starting from 5026).

Y=4729-5045-4965-5109* in progress and so far:

A= 4729-5045=316

a=4729-4923=194

b=4923-4861=62

c=4861-5045=184

B= 5045-4965=82

a=5045-4992=53

b=4992-5018=26

c=5018-4965=53

C=4965---upwards as 5 wave form ; Target minimum 0.618*A=196=5161 or C=A=316=5281

(i)=4965-5057=92

(ii)=5057-4998=59

(iii)=4998-5109* in progress and likely to test 5147(min)

Thus one can very safely retain one's longs till 5161.

SL for longs should be 5056.

On charts this Y can be seen as:

http://img703.imageshack.us/img703/4286/nifty12102011.jpg

And the Y.C can be seen as:

http://img72.imageshack.us/img72/7042/nf1210.jpg

Raghu

Bowled by W4 again---Nifty EOD 11.10.2011

Foxy W4 has done it again.

Let's try to see what went wrong?

I have been working on W4 from 4720 upwards as:

A=4720-5169=449(as an Impulse)

B=5169-4759

a=5169-4911=258

b=4911-5168=257

c=5168-4759=409(158% of a)

C=4759-5034=275(61.2% of A)

And on this basis,worked towards end of W4 and beginning of W5 at 5034 but that has been invalidated today.

My friend Shriramoka says accepting C=61.2% (less than 61.8%) was a mistake.

May be he is correct

But I am retaining this Count and treating this ABC as W.

Thus:

W=4720-5169(=449) though it ended at 5026.

And then X = 5026 - 4729 as a 3 wave:

a=5026-4824=202

b=4824-4870=46(23%)

c=4870-4729=150(71.5% of a)

On hourly charts this a =5026-4824( C of W made a high of 5034 but ended at 5026 so a of X has been taken as starting from 5026).

Y=4729-5045-4963* in progress and so far:

A= 4729-5045=316

a=4729-4923=194

b=4923-4861=62

c=4861-5045=184

B= 5045-4965*=82

a=5045-4992=53

b=4992-5018=26

c=5018-4965=53

By this Count Y remains to play its C to the up (if B is considered over at 4965).And may very well take us past 5200.

Alternatively, a b c of Y.A may also be seen as end of Y as a whole and W5 might have already begun at 5045( Y=4729-5045=316 comes to be 70% of W(=4720-5169=449).

Thus W4 remains in play(or has it ended at 5045?) I am not in a position to say.

And with so many knocks on my head,I would not hazard a guess.

On charts this count may be viewed as:

http://img441.imageshack.us/img441/6086/nifty11102011.png

Raghu

Nifty EOD 10.10.2011

Carrying forward from yesterday:

Q

So my Preferred Count as it stands today is:

W5 in action as an Ending Diagonal :

SW1=5026-4729 its 3 subwaves being

5026-4824=202

4824-4870=46

4870-4729=141(70% )

SW2 in play, again as a three wave

A=4729-4922*(a 5 wave form)

B & C yet to fan out and may very well test 5000 as a zig-zag

UnQ

And as it stands today:

W5 in action as ED(3*3*3*3*3):

SW1=5026-4729

SW2=4729-4990*

A=4729-4922

B=4922-4861

C=4861-4990* basic min req of C=0.618*A has been fulfilled

So I am now ready for a slide down as SW3 to below 4729 levels (again as a 3 wave form)--

SL for all shorts should be at 5027.

On charts:

http://img833.imageshack.us/img833/4993/nfty10102011.jpg

Raghu

Nifty EOD 7.10.2011

Haaaaaaaaa--h

Stumped out once again.

Such a high volatility and repeated gap-downs and gap-ups are making it very difficult to write and correctly place daily fractals.

Continuing with my basic Count: that W5 has started from 5026 downwards but making an alteration in it, based on the form that has become apparent today.

This W5,instead of fanning out a regular Impulse 5*3*5*3*5,may very well fan out as an Ending Diagonal 3*3*3*3*3.

So my Preferred Count as it stands today is:

W5 in action as an Ending Diagonal :

SW1=5026-4729 its 3 subwaves being

5026-4824=202

4824-4870=46

4870-4729=141(70% )

SW2 in play, again as a three wave

A=4729-4922*(a 5 wave form)

B & C yet to fan out and may very well test 5000 as a zig-zag

On charts, the link is:

http://img810.imageshack.us/img810/1402/nifty7102011.jpg

Raghu

PS: It does not feel nice to get repeatedly stumped. I advise all my friends to keep an eye on old friend "trendlines" as in case of gap-ups & gap-downs,they provide a more handy tool than EW which, in the absence of proper fractals,take a day or two to put forward a clearer picture.

Nifty EOD 5.10.2011

Continuing from yesterday:

Q

Now the count stands as:

W5 downwards from 5026 in 5 subwaves(SWs) for a tentative target of 615(=W1):

SW1=5026-4824=202

SW2=4824-4870=46(23%)

SW3=4870- down wards in 5 subwaves of its own haveng a minimum target of 1.62*202=327:

(i)=4870-4728=142

(ii)=4728-4791* in progress and now I would not hazard a guess for this (ii) other than that it can not go above 4870 as correctives can retrace 23.6% to 99.9%

And as soon as this (ii) is over ,(iii) shall bring it down by minimum 1.62*142=230 points

UnQ

And retaining my cautious attitude towards the Correctives and the nature of today's move,I still would say that it is not possible to categorically say whether SW3(ii) has ended. So just putting down the two options:

Option 1 : SW3(ii) ended at 4827 and SW3(iii) downwards started:

http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/7996/nifty510111.jpg

Option 2: Only SW3(ii).A has ended at 4827 as a three wave form. SW3(ii)B in progress and capable of going upto 138.2% of the A(=4728-4827) i.e can go up to 4690 and then come up again to do a SW3(ii).C and test 161.8% of A i.e can test 4850 again.

http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/9554/nifty51020112.jpg

Thus in both the counts an initial downmove is on the cards but then 4690 may see a sharp turnaround and move upto 4850.

Best wishes to all for a Happy Dussehra.

Raghu

Nifty EOD 4.10.2011

Yesterday's conclusion

Q

And as W5 has begun from 5026 for a tentative length of 615(=W1) in 5 waves,

I would count it as:

SW1=5026-4824=202

SW2 in progress--- Target 1=4890

http://img849.imageshack.us/img849/8192/nifty301020113.jpg

UnQ

For Sw2 I gave a target of 4890 and it turned back from 4870 as instead of expected zig-zag form mostly taken by Wave 2, it made a Flat pattern and then embarked on SW3.

Now the count stands as:

W5 downwards from 5026 in 5 subwaves(SWs) for a tentative target of 615(=W1):

SW1=5026-4824=202

SW2=4824-4870=46(23%)

SW3=4870- down wards in 5 subwaves of its own haveng a minimum target of 1.62*202=327:

(i)=4870-4728=142

(ii)=4728-4791* in progress and now I would not hazard a guess for this (ii) other than that it can not go above 4870 as correctives can retrace 23.6% to 99.9%

And as soon as this (ii) is over ,(iii) shall bring it down by minimum 1.62*142=230 points

On charts this W5 can be seen as:

http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/2009/nifty4102011.jpg

Raghu

Nifty EOD 3.10.2011

After considering today's movements it appears C of W4 ended with a truncation at 5024 on Friday dt 30.9.2011 (with 5th subwave of C5 starting at 4953 failing to go above 3rd subwave of C5 which had ended at 5034) and therefore the charts as they appear at the end of W4 would appear as follows:

http://img841.imageshack.us/img841/9467/nifty31020111.jpg

and subwaves of W4.C are as follows:

http://img20.imageshack.us/img20/7201/nifty31020112.jpg

And as W5 has begun from 5026 for a tentative length of 615(=W1) in 5 waves,

I would count it as:

SW1=5026-4824=202

SW2 in progress--- Target 1=4890

http://img849.imageshack.us/img849/8192/nifty301020113.jpg

All longs now should have a SL at 4824.

Raghu