Trading Nifty on 18-07-2012

In Hour Chart the Price- RSI divergence is indicating short-term upmove:

Does this short-term upmove has a chance to get converted into a larger upmove?
Current indicaters negate it as on Daily Charts not only the LTL of current channel has not been tested but also we are nowhere near oversold zone.

The Downmove started from 5348 is being seen as a zig-zag Corrective ABC wherein:
A=5348-5218=130
B=5218-5267=49
C=5267---onwards can do 0.618*A to 1.617*A
Has done a diagonal wherein
sw1=5267.1-5217=50.1
sw2=5217-5245.8(Flat)
sw3=5245.8-5191=54.8
sw4=5191-5236.25(gap so form not identified)
sw5=5236.25-5181.7*=54.55

As in a diagonal sw5>sw3>sw1 so sw5 is still short of it.
And it indicates the Probability of going below 5181.7.
Now within this sw5 we can see a diagonal:
5236.25-5196=40.25
5196-5212.25=16.25
5212.25-5181.7=30.55
5181.7-5198=16.3
5198----can go down maximum by 30.5(in this case sw1>sw3>sw5) i.e.5167.5

So one should go long as we come below 5181 with SL at 5167.4
However if we go above 5212.25 first then this microscopic last leg should be forgotten and C from 5267.1 downwards should be seen as having done its C1=5267.1-5181.7=85.4 and above 5212.25 C2 should be seen in play---likely to retrace upto 62%of C1=5235 or 77%=5247.
Then we should initiate shorts at around 5245 and above with Stop-loss at 5267.15


These are the two trade set-ups I see as of now---
Best of luck.

2.10 PM
Part booking pf longs advised

Pl put TSL for remaining longs at 5186.25 and do another part booking at 30x1.6=48+5186=5234 or at trendline shown below:

2.51 PM
Moving TSL to 5213
3.28
All positions squared off

EOD:
Faced lot off problem in posting updates----
No shorts created as SL of 5267.1 was very far off---
Lets see how it fans out tomorrow