Nifty on 25-07-2012

Starting premise remains same as yesterday:

Q

If 5097 gets breached in the morning itself(i.e c3 gets extended),we may see an intraday recovery to 5150(as c4) but again fall to levels below c3(to complete c5).

If 5097 remains unbreached,we may keep grinding & inching upwards----as c4 to build a diagonal C ---

UnQ

To recall the downmove from 5348 till this day:
A=5348-5218=130
B=5218-5267=49
C=in play from 5267 downwards--can do a maximum 1.6xA=5056 as an Impulse or diagonal
c1=5267-5168=99
c2=5168-5257=89
c3=5257-5104*
(i)=5257-5197=60
(ii)=5197-5220=23
(iii)=5220-5108=102
(iv)=5108-5144=36
(v)=5144---should do minimum 0.62*(i)=37.5=5106 and ideally (v)=(i)=60=5084


As the next wave expected is c4---so it is likely to be all grinding and slow moving day--worsened further by series-expiry day being very close--- Intraday direction is likely to be up--
How much up?
Depends upon the ending of (v).If 5097 is breached,today's intraday upmove would not go above 5160.
If 5097 remains unbreached,we may cross 5200 if not today then tomorrow

10.04AM
Watching closely:
c1=5267.15-5169.05=98.1
c2=5169.05-5257.75
c3=5257.75-5096.35*=161.4(164% of c1)

so c3 has become extended subwave .
c4, therefore would not go into c1 territory---retracement to be limited to 5140-5160 band now--

1.59 PM
one 5 wave form looks complete:

so a small retracement to 5100 and then a push up to 5140 is likely

3.10PM
May keep hanging here itself---to open with a gap-up in the 5140-5150 band and then come down to sub 5075 levels tomorrow--

3.26 PM

Hammer on daily charts:

EOD
c4.a=5076-5119=43
c4b=5119-5105=14
c4c--- 5105+ minimum 27=5132 is likely tomorrow

And then a slide down again as c5 to do minimum 0.62*c1=61 points meaning if we do 5140 in the morning as c4c then c5 doing its minimum 60 points would not take it below 5076(today's low)--- and a truncated c5 would mean a fast retracement to beginning of C i.e. 5267-----
so tomorrow morning--5140
Intraday low minimum 5080--

Rest as we proceed--

Raghu