50DMA=5106
100DMA=5154
150DMA=5149
200DMA=5103
Thus Nifty has closed below all major DMAs indicating weakness but is our (iv) over?
100DMA=5154
150DMA=5149
200DMA=5103
Thus Nifty has closed below all major DMAs indicating weakness but is our (iv) over?
To repeat:
(i)=5348-5218=130
(ii)=5218-5267=49
(iii)=5267-5033*=234[180% of (i)]
(iv) 5033-5150*=117=50% of (iii) retraced.
As the gap-up does not allow us to confirm the wave-form and percentage wise there is a good chance of (iv) being over, I turn to RSI/Stoch in Hour charts to see how it stands:
And it tells me that there is scope of (iv) continuing on Monday to give us a 3 wave form in following manner:
a=5033-5150=117
b=5150-5078=72
5149.95-5093.3=56.65
5093.3-5113.65=20.35
5113.65-5077.65=36
c=5078--up by minimum 0.62x117=73=5151
In these days of global uncertainties,gap-ups and gap-downs because of some global events have become very common.However,despite the gap-up /gap-down, market falls into its overall pattern very fast. So in the most likelihood we would open gap-up on Monday morning but not go very much up. If we open up in the gap 5160-5198,we may go on to fill the gap .Otherwise this gap is likely to act as a good resistance giving us 5160 as the shorting point.
Thus we have two shorting points--5160 and 5198.Stop loss for shorts so created would be 5218(territory of (i).
Now let us think "ulta"---if some global mishap occurs and we open with a gap down then we shall have to label (iv) as over at 5150 and (v) in play.As (i)=5348-5218 was 130 points,this (v) has to be minimum 0.62*130=81 i.e. minimum (5150-81=5069)--so a gapdown below 5069 would mean (v) in play which would ideally take us below 5033 .
Then 4990-5020 should be used for going long again.
Thus net-net ,as a thumb-guide,one can use following TLs for initiating a trade---finetune your entry on long or short side by looking for divergence/x-overs in 5 min charts:
In this manner,remembering our pattern would not allow gap-up or gap-down to dislodge us.
Is our (iv) over?
ReplyDeleteWe MAY be abke to figure it out, if we try to find the answer among several probable answers:
1) Is (iii) an extended wave?
At 180% of (i)......YES it is.
2) Is (ii) a mild retracement?
At 38% of (i)....Yes it is mild.
3) Since (ii) was mild..potential for (iv) to be
deep is quite high & (iv) is out to prove it
so far retracting approx 50%
So far so good............ALL we need is for (v) to end beyond (iii) to come up with a perfect EW count based on Fibo.
But does the count fit based on other crieteria?
What we need to watch at this stage?
How far the (iv) is likely to travel? or has it ended already?
If it has ended at 5150....then (v) can do 5150-130 = 5020.......
to satisfy.......when (iii) is extended then the other two impulse wud be of similar distance or at least related by a Fibo number and (v) wud end beyond the (iii)
If there is scope for (iv) to continue.......and assuming it does achieve the c=a distance........We may have (iv) ending at 117+5078 = 5195
then the (v) in order to just get pass marks wud have to go AT least to 5032.......which means 5195-5032 = 163
compared with (i) we have 125%............gr8........within earshot of 1.236 fib zone.
What to watch out at this stage?
How far the (iv) likely to go?...Way too far so (v) needs to be an extended wave just to get past the (iii)
IMHO......Price action after wave (ii) has violated the basic lower channel of the projected impulse.......so the count IMHO is suspect.
What am I expecting?
An over lap of 5169.........followed by what seems like an extended wave (v).......when compared to (i) shown on the chart.
Cheerz and Good luck with the new blog
Thats my Guru Wave-rider for you----
ReplyDeleteWho comes and goes like a wave,but makes sure that his point is well under stood. For those who wish to understand his
Q
IMHO......Price action after wave (ii) has violated the basic lower channel of the projected impulse.......so the count IMHO is suspect.
UnQ
the 2nd last chart and the black channel of it is the one which he is referring to----
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