Nifty on 26-07-2012

As C1=4770-5348=578 in 27 trading sessions
C2 if it retraces 50% of C1,its target is 5059
and if it retraces 61.8% of C1,its target is 4990
C2 also has to be a 3 wave corrective form
so far it has completed 11 trading sessions and today would be its 12th i.e. time taken vis-a-vis C1 has been only 44% so far and although a 3 wave form is nearing completion,RSI-14 is not in oversold zone as yet.
I am labelling this C2's fractals as:
A=5348-5218=130
B=5218-5267=49
C=5267--downwards
c1=5267-5169=98
c2=5169-5257
c3=5257-5077
c4=5077-5120* in play currently and likely to remain limited to 5150
c5--down again to complete C as an ideal 5 wave form

This c5 has to be minimum 0.62*c1 and maximum 1.6*c1 i.e. it can range from 61-157 points i.e if c4 ends at 5150 then c5 can bring Nifty down to a range of 5089-4993
If it does only upto 5057 the abovementioned fractals of C2 would hold good with
A-5348-5218=130
B=5218-5267=49
C=5267-5057*(projected)=210
However,if Nifty goes below 5057,then this downmove would no longer remain a 3 wave form and shall have to be labelled:
sw1=5348-5218=130
sw2=5218-5267=49
sw3=5267-5055*=212(163% of sw1) extended rd wave of a 5 wave form
sw4=to retrace this sw3 by 50% or more i.e. go upto5160 again.

This particular Probability is being mentioned primarily because of two factors:
1. RSI not being in oversold zone in daily charts
2.Time taken by the downmove from 5348 is not much.

On the contrary,if today morning,we go above 5169 then we shall have to conclude that an immediate bottom has been formed at 5077 and gear up for another 200 points upmove--to take pause at 5350 levels.

Then how to set up trade in the light of all the above details---with different probabilities?
I would go short near 5150 with stop-loss at 5170 and target minimum 61 points down from day's high.
And if 5169 is taken out then it would be time to go long at all dips for target 5350.

9.25 AM
This trendline breach would say that c4 is over----but the time taken is too small---would it mean that only A of c4 over--- that sounds more logical--

looks like diagonal A=5077-5126=49
B in play
C to go up again:

Name:Sanjay Singh
Present City:Gurgaon

10.24 AM
This is for ribu--- but with a caveat---these being very small degree waves,I donot consider them tradable but for understaning the concept you should follow them--

10.45 AM

Likely road map for the day---put stop losses properly---Happy trading--I'm off for the day

Raghu