Trading Nifty on 13-07-2012

EW wise 5194 is the most crucial level--a tick below it would mean that black LTL is going to be tested in next week.
Yesterday I had mentioned following Probability

But with other TA indicaters turning distinctly bearish,it does not look prudent to mention only the above  Probability. Worked deeper and the following Counts also looked convincing:

So I would advise a squaring off of all longs at 5280 levels and look for further clues to take any position.

9.19 AM
Trailing Stop-loss for longs now advised at 5229:

As the channel above shows,one 3w form upwards is complete:
5218-5252=34
5252-5229=23
5229-5266=37
Logically part booking of longs advised
10.14 AM
TSL for remaining shorts moved to day's low.
A tick below 5229 should be a signal to short for target 5187.

11.45 AM
All long positions gone now as the TSL at day's low got breached.
However shorting advised only below 5229.
Above 5262 one can go long again with a target of 38+day's low and SL at day's low

1.57 PM

2.10PM

Going by wave-form,we seem to have started for 5267-(0.62*130)=5186 journey

2.32 PM

3.25PM
Bearish engulfing on Daily and more pronounced bear-x over--- keep your shorts for Monday:

EOD:

On a higher degree:
A=4531-5629=1098
B=5629-4770
C=4770  upwards in play  Can either play as a 5 wave Impulse or a Diagonal
Probability-1
Taking it as a 5 wave Impulse:
C1=4770-5190=420
C2=5190-5041
C3 =5041---upwards in play minimum target=1.62*C1=680=5721
(i)=5041-5348=307
(ii)=5348--downwards in play 62% retracement=190=5157
a=5348-5218=130
b=5218-5267=49
c=5267---downwards in play  minimum target-5187(c=0.62xa);Ideally(c=a)=5137
This c also can be either a 5 wave impulse or a diagonal. So far
sw1=5267-5217=50
sw2=5217-5235*


Probability-2
Alternatively,taking C=4770 upwards as a 3x3x3x3x3 diagonal:
 C1=4770-5348=578(as a  wave form):
sw1=4770-5190=420
sw2=5190-5041
sw3=5041-5348=307
C2 in play  downwards.

However,it is too early to say which form this C=4770 upwards will take--the diagonal form mentioned above should be considered only when the current Correction from 5348 downwards goes deeper than 80% of (i) of C3 i.e. goes below 5100.


So I would look for upmove to recommence from 5137.(i.e. follow Probability-1).