Thus we have
A=5348-5033=315
B=5033-5234* in play can at the most do 80% of A=252=5285
B(a) looks like over today at 5034 as a 5 wave form=5033-5234=201
5033-5150=117
5150-5078=72
5078-5218=140
5218-5154=64
5154-5234=80
Thus the 3rd subwave is 175 % of 5th subwave and Ist subwave is 146% of 5th subwave.
B(b)=5034 downwards should start now to retrace 50-62% of B(a)=5135-5100 band.
B(c) would then come up again.
My above labels are guided by the negative divergence in Hour charts which are in overbought zone.
And to keep these labels valid the current upmove should not go above 5241 as that would not keep the 3rd subwave of B(a) as extended vis-a-vis 5th subwave.
So the trade for next two days is SHORT with a Stop-loss at 5241 and target-1 below 5154 ;
target 2=5135;target3=5100
Refer following trendlines during this down move
11.45 AM
currently I am gazing at this chart:
Stop loss for shorts is now at 5234 and first target for part booking of profit is 5188
The long shot looks like this:
12.35 PM
First trade of the day got busted---
Shall wait now--
12.50 PM
Next probability says we should not go above 5267:
2.00Pm
Just to recollect---(for late comers?? lol!!)
A=5348-5033
B retracing A
62%=5228
77%=5275
That means percentage wise we have retraced sufficient.
Now lets take form
Formwise we have to take a 3 wave Corrective form B(a),B(b)B(c).
As per the move till now it appears we have done
B(a)=5033-5150=117
B(b)=5150-5078
B(c)=5078 upwards in play
This B(c) can not do more than 1.618xB(a).
So an upper limit of 117x1.618=189+5078=5267 is fixed.
Now let us look at the form of this B(c).
Looks like doing a Diagonal:
sw1=5078-5218=140
sw2=5218-5154
sw3=5154-5246*(66% of sw1)
EOD
A flat day with ending very close to yeterday's but very important from the point of view of our pattern-position as it gave a new definition to our position vis-a-vis the pattern:
A=5348-5033=315
B=5033-5234* in play can at the most do 80% of A=252=5285
B(a) looks like over today at 5034 as a 5 wave form=5033-5234=201
5033-5150=117
5150-5078=72
5078-5218=140
5218-5154=64
5154-5234=80
Thus the 3rd subwave is 175 % of 5th subwave and Ist subwave is 146% of 5th subwave.
B(b)=5034 downwards should start now to retrace 50-62% of B(a)=5135-5100 band.
B(c) would then come up again.
My above labels are guided by the negative divergence in Hour charts which are in overbought zone.
And to keep these labels valid the current upmove should not go above 5241 as that would not keep the 3rd subwave of B(a) as extended vis-a-vis 5th subwave.
target 2=5135;target3=5100
Refer following trendlines during this down move
currently I am gazing at this chart:
The long shot looks like this:
First trade of the day got busted---
Shall wait now--
12.50 PM
Next probability says we should not go above 5267:
Just to recollect---(for late comers?? lol!!)
A=5348-5033
B retracing A
62%=5228
77%=5275
Now lets take form
Formwise we have to take a 3 wave Corrective form B(a),B(b)B(c).
As per the move till now it appears we have done
B(a)=5033-5150=117
B(b)=5150-5078
B(c)=5078 upwards in play
This B(c) can not do more than 1.618xB(a).
So an upper limit of 117x1.618=189+5078=5267 is fixed.
Now let us look at the form of this B(c).
Looks like doing a Diagonal:
sw1=5078-5218=140
sw2=5218-5154
sw3=5154-5246*(66% of sw1)
EOD
A flat day with ending very close to yeterday's but very important from the point of view of our pattern-position as it gave a new definition to our position vis-a-vis the pattern:
Guruji
ReplyDeleteNamaskhar
Wish you a Fruitful Day !!!
High made 5240.45.
ReplyDeleteYou maintain the view.
Dear Manish,
DeleteOnce you understand the concept--should do the fine-tuning yourself.
I have very clearly written that 3rd subwave has to be extended vis-a-vis 5th.
Now what was 3rd?
It was 5077.65-5218.35=140.7
For 3rd to remain extended vis-a-vis 5th,5th should not be more than 140.7/1.618=86.86
Now 5th started from 5154.25
so it should not go above 5154.25+86.86=5241.11
Yaar ye sab calculation to aap ko bhi karni chahiye--taaki agar mujhse koi galti ho to aap mujhe bata sako--
Thank you Sir for this explanation.
Deleteguruji as ew is primary tool u use i was thinking this...
ReplyDeleteelliott did all his research in hour closing charts so all rules and
guidelines on that. i turned to line charts wave counts change a bit. if u shift to hour closing charts only for hour labelling what
effect wud it have..
Initially,I tried but then nowadays I turn to that for confirming overlaps and diagonals only---
ReplyDeleteWe could see a gap up tomorrow breaking all shackles and nifty could go all the way to 5450-500 in next 1 week taking most by surprise.
ReplyDeleteIf you are saying this on the basis of news inflow that you are privy to--then pl do share it.
DeleteIf you are saying it on the basis of "gut-feel" or "premonition"--please excuse us
:-)
I wouldn't be surprised if Nifty goes below 5000 in 1 week
DeleteRaghuji though i firmly believe news does not move the markets but yet markets seemed poised to move up dramatically after the US FED meet today in which Ben Bernanke is in all probability going to give a hint of QE3 coming up soon.That is enough for the markets to skyrocket:-).Dont expect the SnP and Dow to react much as they slowly grind up but asian markets should take the cue and jump up dramatically.
ReplyDeleteokay--- thanks for sharing your thoughts
Deleteguruji,
ReplyDeletethe level of 5241 might be fifferent in hour closing. i havent checked that just saw wave tops diff figures
PS,
ReplyDeleteJust keep one yardstick--I keep L/H.
For confirmation I turn to divergences in momentum indicaters and channels--- we can look for better odds but we can never "perfect"
it--- thats my sincere advise.
And based upon my personal experience I can tell you that if we just do one thing--"maximise gains in our winning positions" and "minimise losses in wrong trades" we shall end up winners---
Too much analysis leads only to paralysis --
u r right about "doing one thing " view. was just discussing better thing.
ReplyDeleteKeep trying--I never wish to dishearten but I am just sharing my experience-- at times,one tool appears better,at another time,another one appears better--- thats why I concluded that for overlaps & diagonals one "must" consider closing values,otherwise L/H suffices--
DeleteRaghuji 117 * 1.618 = 189 points !
ReplyDeleteOk Raghuji i got it 5077.7 + 189 = 5267
ReplyDeleteHahaHaHa--its no rocket-science.
DeleteWhen an old-parrot like me can follow it--young men like you can grasp it within no time---
Guru ji
DeleteNamaskar!!!
5267 also coincides with a gap down....
regards
LOL
ReplyDeleteNifty 5267 could be taken out today itself or it may close there :-)
ReplyDeleteWhy,has your announcement come?----
DeleteBTW my charts are of opposite view---
so instead of going long I would prefer going short with SL at 5267---
How would you trade???
i would follow u in shorts with sl 5260
DeleteDear gurj!
DeleteWhat is stoploss for your longs?
guruji,
ReplyDeletewhere is the end point of wave 4. so that we can count 5minor subwaves from there
guruji,
ReplyDeleteif the market closes below 5223,is truncated 5th done today itself
we are ending 3rd (of C)--tomorrow we may see 4th & 5th--
DeletePl read it 3rd of B(c)
Deleteguruji,
ReplyDeletewhat shud be minimum length of a wave in 5 waver. here 1 will be extended as 140/87=1.609 it'll be extended against 5th. can 5th be so small that 2 waves be extended against it. i never remember labelling u like that. if 5th cant be extended against 3rd it shud be 87*.62 ie 54 if we add 54+5213=5267 so this invalidates larger count.. am i missing something??
sw1=5078-5218=140
Deletesw2=5218-5154=64
sw3=5154-5246*=92
sw4 & sw5 yet to come
ok guruji. i thought bc4 is marked at 5213. missed "&"
ReplyDelete