Trendlines are the easiest and most reliable tool to locate the resistances and supports.
In the current context, following ones would be very useful:
On daily charts:
And on Hour charts:
And when I combine the indications from trendlines with my EW labels, I see the range for coming week(at least) at 5180-5440
Now lets come to EW labels.
Labels being followed are:
Now, within this C from 4770 upwards,first 5 wave Impulse from 4770-5124 is very clearly discernible:
4770-4898
4898-4848
4848-5059
5059-4994
4994-5124
this 5 wave Impulse was over on 11-6-2012 and after that Nifty was bound in a range of 5017-5190 for good fourteen sessions and finally broke out of this range on Friday confirming a new Impulse upwards.
Various attempts were made during last fourteen days to labels waves in the range mentioned above.
The fogginess remains in these labels but to find the target of this new Impulse we have to try & locate its starting point.
Following three labels seem appropriate:
Thus broadly we have two options:
Taking C1=4770-5124;C2=5124-5041;C3=5041 upwards -----
OR
Taking C1=4770-5190;C2=5190-5041 but ending at 5095;C3=5095 upwards----
First option has a drawback---taking C3 as having started at 5041 its further labelling would be:
(i)=5041-5194=153
(ii)=5194-5095=99
(iii)=5095-5286*
and this labelling doesnot look very convincing as not only (ii)=5194-5095 is an Impulsive form but also(i)=5041-5194 does not look like an Impulse or diagonal.
Keeping in mind the abovesaid reasonings(my Guru Waverider calls it "deductive reasoning"), I am choosing C from 4770 upwards as having taken following route so far:
This should be enough for this week-end.
Raghu
PS: Had closed the diary and thought of retiring for the day but something kept bothering,forcing me to come back.
In a correctiveABC,if A is an Impulse, B can not retrace it by more than 100%.
That means for B to retrace A by 100-138%( as happens in Flats),A has to be a corrective 3 wave form or a triangle.
But in our Chart
C2 from 5189 downwards envisages a=5189-5041=148(Impulse);b=5041-5194=153;c=5194-5095=99
thus b retraces more than 100% of Impulsive a which is against guidelines.
And so the EW insect in my mind remains restless for want of more appropriate labels.
I came up with another set of labels:
Looked good initially but then herein also one lacuna was noticed.
In a(shown as exp flat),its own fractal b(=5047-5189=142) is doing more than 138% of a(=5144-5047=97)
And, thus the search for most convincing label is still on----
In the current context, following ones would be very useful:
On daily charts:
And on Hour charts:
And when I combine the indications from trendlines with my EW labels, I see the range for coming week(at least) at 5180-5440
Now lets come to EW labels.
Labels being followed are:
Now, within this C from 4770 upwards,first 5 wave Impulse from 4770-5124 is very clearly discernible:
4770-4898
4898-4848
4848-5059
5059-4994
4994-5124
this 5 wave Impulse was over on 11-6-2012 and after that Nifty was bound in a range of 5017-5190 for good fourteen sessions and finally broke out of this range on Friday confirming a new Impulse upwards.
Various attempts were made during last fourteen days to labels waves in the range mentioned above.
The fogginess remains in these labels but to find the target of this new Impulse we have to try & locate its starting point.
Following three labels seem appropriate:
Thus broadly we have two options:
Taking C1=4770-5124;C2=5124-5041;C3=5041 upwards -----
OR
Taking C1=4770-5190;C2=5190-5041 but ending at 5095;C3=5095 upwards----
First option has a drawback---taking C3 as having started at 5041 its further labelling would be:
(i)=5041-5194=153
(ii)=5194-5095=99
(iii)=5095-5286*
and this labelling doesnot look very convincing as not only (ii)=5194-5095 is an Impulsive form but also(i)=5041-5194 does not look like an Impulse or diagonal.
Keeping in mind the abovesaid reasonings(my Guru Waverider calls it "deductive reasoning"), I am choosing C from 4770 upwards as having taken following route so far:
This should be enough for this week-end.
Raghu
PS: Had closed the diary and thought of retiring for the day but something kept bothering,forcing me to come back.
In a correctiveABC,if A is an Impulse, B can not retrace it by more than 100%.
That means for B to retrace A by 100-138%( as happens in Flats),A has to be a corrective 3 wave form or a triangle.
But in our Chart
C2 from 5189 downwards envisages a=5189-5041=148(Impulse);b=5041-5194=153;c=5194-5095=99
thus b retraces more than 100% of Impulsive a which is against guidelines.
And so the EW insect in my mind remains restless for want of more appropriate labels.
I came up with another set of labels:
Looked good initially but then herein also one lacuna was noticed.
In a(shown as exp flat),its own fractal b(=5047-5189=142) is doing more than 138% of a(=5144-5047=97)
And, thus the search for most convincing label is still on----
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