The last upwave from 5041 has been quite complex,and as it is still developing,any final word on its form cannot be said.
However the EW insect that I am, I could not desist myself from listing following probability:
First a larger picture,from 4770 upwards:
.png)
And now a move from 5041 upwards:
.png)
This Probability pinpoints that this upmove would not go above 5172
And calls for a trade set-up to short above 5169.9 with a Stop-loss at 5172.
Funny?
Lets see----
10.12 AM
As in 5 min charts,MACD ( 34,5) has shown x-over so going short with SL at 5172
1.25 PM
Will my morning readings hold?
Looks very likely as last leg of upmove(shown in charts below)
.png)
1.41 PM
will the last wave fail--- causing truncation and fast fall?
.png)
.png)
1.53 PM
Can still surprise by going above day's high:
.png)
So must book part profits
2.00PM
Now short BINDAAS !!!
.png)
2.20 PM
I say short bindaas and it goes up---
naraaz hai kya?
.png)
2.48 PM
See what is holding us:
.png)
3.05 PM
Lets try to locate next resistance and supports:
.png)
EOD:
Another day of grinding in shortest daily range of 30 points---
On such days I shift to one minute chart(did you notice?).
Candles are bigger and even the smallest waves can be counted---keeps me busy and doesnot allow me to get angry and quarrel with my tools---
The two trendlines shown in following chart would set the course tomorrow.
.png)
My bet is for a gap down opening below the lower trendline--closer to 5100 and then a grind in 5090-5120 range----
Raghu
However the EW insect that I am, I could not desist myself from listing following probability:
First a larger picture,from 4770 upwards:
.png)
And now a move from 5041 upwards:
.png)
This Probability pinpoints that this upmove would not go above 5172
And calls for a trade set-up to short above 5169.9 with a Stop-loss at 5172.
Funny?
Lets see----
10.12 AM
As in 5 min charts,MACD ( 34,5) has shown x-over so going short with SL at 5172
1.25 PM
Will my morning readings hold?
Looks very likely as last leg of upmove(shown in charts below)
.png)
will the last wave fail--- causing truncation and fast fall?
.png)
.png)
Can still surprise by going above day's high:
.png)
2.00PM
Now short BINDAAS !!!
.png)
I say short bindaas and it goes up---
naraaz hai kya?
.png)
See what is holding us:
.png)
Lets try to locate next resistance and supports:
.png)
Another day of grinding in shortest daily range of 30 points---
On such days I shift to one minute chart(did you notice?).
Candles are bigger and even the smallest waves can be counted---keeps me busy and doesnot allow me to get angry and quarrel with my tools---
The two trendlines shown in following chart would set the course tomorrow.
.png)
Raghu
guruji in 4770 onwards count w3 5048-5189
ReplyDeletew5 5042-5195, w1 4770-5124, so w3 shortest?
why shud it go above 5169? min .62 of sw1 and max 76
ok 5017-5144 swi smallest
ReplyDeleteW1 is not 4770-5124 my dear.
ReplyDeleteW1=4770-4898=128
W2=4898-4848
W3=4848-5059
W4=5059-4994
W5 from 4994 is taken as doing a diagonal(shown as D1,D2,D3---
In D5 from 5041 upwards again a diagonal has been considered(in second chart).
As D3 ended at 5169.9 (in second chart)so D5 should go above it.
But D5 has to be less than D3 so can not go above 5172.
oh guruji d5 shud go above d3 i forgot that...thank u
ReplyDeleteIf it doesnot,then I would call it truncation----(funny again) leading to very fast fall to sub-5041 level
Deleteok guruji
DeleteSir counts are ok i get them but when u say fast fall, how fast?? hour day or what
ReplyDeletekya Sameer bhai---?!
DeleteWhat I write is theoretical(which says truncation means high momentum in opp direction---leading to fast up/down moves)----baaki to mkt hai,why make me say more---
:-)
Sir fast fall se ummeed badh jaati hai aur koi baat nahin hai
DeleteOn completion of ABC(we had done 5135.5 at that time) I wrote to book part profit as it had chances of going above day's high again(and I mentioned that also).
ReplyDeleteBut within minutes it went to 5132.5 thus making C>1.65A and also broke supporting trendline-- making me give a short call.
Once C is above 1.65A,Exp Flat ABC becomes less probable---
Sir
ReplyDeleteMy observations
It is Algo trading
it has nothing to do with waves
First a narrow range created before 10 AM
Then break upside by 2-3 points then breake downside by 2-3 points then keep grinding
again break either side by 2-3 pts and so on
Specially at important levels like today 5139 and 5157 it confuses by false breakdown and breakout
Sir,
ReplyDeleteGussa?
For what ?
for getting educated?
Never
Chalo main bhi ye wave-counting kar ke tang aa gayaa hoon---
ReplyDeleteaap ek algo-trading based blog likhna chaalu karo--
main aapka Ist follower--
Ab jo aap bolo wahi sahee----
JAI SHRI RAM !!!!
Hi : On the EW count presented above, the extension of fifth into a ED (D1-D5 as above) with 2 and 4 being relatively weak is somehow not appealing. For fifth to be an ED, 4 should have been stronger perhaps?
ReplyDeleteI feel that 4770-5124 represents one impulse wave of some degree. Could be 1st or A(assuming the current correction to be a running 2 or B). Ofc'se this needs 4990 to hold to stay alive
Cheers
Dear KRG,
Deletethanks for response.
If you read yesterday's post,I have mentioned clearly that 4994 breached on the downside or 5202 breached on the upside would confirm the labels--- till then its all guessing--
(and your post is also suggesting the same--guessing !!!)
I keep mentioning trendlines,channels and 5 min /Hour MACD etc to scalp something---
sure... for me EW has become all guesswork after 2004, especially on shorter time frames... So many TA tenets changing in last few years!!
DeleteI like the diligence shown in your posts... However, ED in that position looked little out of place.. hence the comment.. no offence..
Cheers
Aaaaaaaaaah! 2004-----then you are like my grandpa in EW as I started it only 2011.
DeleteThanks for the compliments reg diligence--- may be cynicism has yet to set in --
And as far as feeling offence is concerned, mkt does it so often that little is left for anybody else --
I would luv more frequent feedbacks--
Thanks !!
OMG.. 2004 was when I got singed by the traditional EW of Pretcher variety (on Gold I remember particularly and on Nifty generally)...Else I was enamoured by it as early as 90's !!.... Since you want feedback, I suggest you read Neely's MEW if not already done..
DeleteCheers
Dear KRG,
DeleteI feel honoured to have comments from a seasoned person like you. Currently I am in Pretcher variety of EW and focussing more on trade-management(as ultimately it is that which matters).Neely's Mastering Elliot Wave was downloaded by me six months ago but not consumed so far--
Regds
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI totally agree that forecasting and trading are two distinct areas. Within forecasting, there is considerable criticism on Pretcher's forecasts
ReplyDeletemy thoughts on this :
http://krgonline.blogspot.in/2011/03/what-counts-and-can-it-be-counted.html
cheers