Hanumanji

Hanumanji
Jai Hanuman Gyan Gun Sagar Jai Kapeesh Tihu Lok Ujaagar Ram Doot Atulita Baladhaama Anjani Putra Pavanasuta Naama

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Trading Nifty on 20-06-2012

Courtsey Chetas one major issue(diagonal) was resolved and about the other one(regarding labels),I have come back to same baby (after carefully & closely observing the alternatives):
A=4531-5629=1098
B retracing A as WXY:
W=5629-5136
X=5136-5378(ending at 5342)
Y=5342 downwards having done:
Ya=5342-4789=553
Yb=4789-5190=401
Yc started from 5190 and likely to do minimum 0.62*Ya=343 as a 5 wave form(impulse or diagonal)

And I have a "projected" Yc ready with me(as a 5 wave Impulse) 
Yc1=5190-5041=149
Yc2=5041-5133(62% retraced)
Yc3=5133-4890(162% of Yc1)
Yc4=4890-4982(38% of Yc3 retraced)
Yc5=4982-4833(=Yc1)


Currently Yc2=5041-5110* in progress and likely targets are 5133(62%) or maximum 5161(80%).
Following two trendlines(one a parallel channel & the other sort of expanding triangle)also give us probable destinations of Yc2:


Today I expect to see  Yc2  getting completed and  Yc3 starting whose (i) would take us to 5025-5030 level.


Delving deeper into corrective:

Going by following pattern,5144 to be tested.
My trade would be to short above 5144 with SL at 5162

11.23 AM
short below 5124 with SL at day's high
In fact I would advise to keep stop-loss for shorts at 5160 as at times a last spurt can take place just to consume SLs at day's high

1.05 PM
keep drawing trendlines and channels:they help a lot in locating nearest support & resistances
Stop-loss for shorts may now be put strictly at day's high.

Day's low broken.
But hour charts not yet showing any negative cross-over
1.40 PM
2.20 PM
Weakness manifested in 5 min charts may or may not get transfered to Hour time frame.
So it is of utmost importance to notice,when price is at channel support on 5 min t/f,ehether Hour t/f is reflecting weakness or not.
If not,as happened today,one must book profits at channel support of 5 min t/f .
Next trade should be initiated as follows:
3.05 PM
EOD
Technically speaking no negative x-overs on Hour charts as yet.
But the Impulse 5189-5041=148 has got retraced by 68% so I donot see much upside.
Would not be surprised by a gap-down tomorrow ---

Raghu

22 comments:

  1. guruji,
    from 5041 a diagonal means this is only a part of yc2 maybe a. or yc2 is triangle??

    ReplyDelete
  2. Treating Yc2 as an expanding triangle

    ReplyDelete
  3. oh!!. in my last many months of reading ur counts. i remember this as ur first elliot triangle.. u usually label as wxy where others do triangle. some academic light, whenever time permits.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You noticed very correctly.
      Yesterday also I labelled 5041-5108 as wxy(3x3x3)but as it went up again past 5108 exp triangle(3x3x3x3x3) was the only choice left.Though the 4th arm is not a discernible 3 wave but---- thats how mkt behaves sometimes--

      Delete
  4. Accept my greetings Raghu ji ,

    guru ji kindly clarify , in WXY X is a corrective 3 wave form . Can this X present itself as a triangle?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. WXY is the name given to combination of simpler type of corrections including zz,flat & triangle.
      X can take any corrective pattern but is mostly zig-zag

      Delete
  5. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Instead of "following" me,first try to "understand" what I am saying--answer to your query lies in this post only.
      Following me is perilous;
      Understanding EW ,though, may give benefits---

      Delete
  6. Sir!

    Our stoploss gone so whats next proper level to short or one shud wait for event tonight?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We must know that when we have initiated shorts on the basis of 5 min charts then whether this weakness is getting tranferred to Hour chart or not.(just as we see at 3.15 PM whether the weakness/strength seen intraday on Hour chart is getting transferred to Daily charts or not.

      Try to practice it Mukeshji---
      Again I have suggested a trade on the basis of 5 min charts but you must learn how to make it a winning shot--
      :-)

      Delete
    2. You are replying out of context sir, i always accept stoploss & executed immediately. I asked you next level to go short, perhaps its not right time for that:-)

      Delete
    3. While executing a SL is sign of a disciplined trader still Mukeshji my point must be taken in correct spirit.Initiating shorts at 5124 on the basis of 5 min charts and seeing it into profit till 5100 and then getting stopped out at 5127.5 is not something that one would like to see frequently.
      If we follow 5 min charts then we must be ready for 25 points scalping otherwise we should follow Hour charts where we get upto 80-100 points per trade.
      May be you will appreciate my point not today but later---
      :-)

      Delete
    4. I fully appreciate sir & i found you one of the best EW analysts. I booked part profit at 5105 & rest booked at 5125 but i was asking next level to go short if it is in ur eyes either we will do later:-)

      Delete
    5. Thanks for your kind appreciation---
      And this market makes one slip so many times that appreciation never goes to head--
      :-)
      Upside is technically over(I donot see it going above 5148)-- mkt may keep hanging/vibrating at these levels so short at MACD(5,34) crossover in 5 min charts--I am posting one for your convenience

      Delete
    6. Thanks a lot sir for ur genuine guidance:-)

      Delete
  7. Raghuvanshi sir,

    Appreciate your humility in reply to mukeshji.

    regards,

    Maheshwari

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mr.Maheshwari!

      You are right, Raghu sir is very coolminded & great personality.

      Delete
  8. Dear Raghu,

    Thoroughly a wonderful display of professionalism in dealing these kinds of volatile markets.Your guidance is of the highest standard.

    You have hinted that the upside is capped from here. My question to you is at what level if can assume that the down trend has begun. Should that level be on a closing basis?

    From your experience and study with these kinds of volatile movements,will the expiry be sub 5000 levels or above.

    Would greatly appreciate your thoughts.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dear Cheeku,
      Pl start reading the Elliot wave related articles to have a better understanding of my posts.
      This Mkt needs deeper understanding and each day you must learn(earnings can wait)--
      The questions raised by you(keeping the appreciation part--for which I am very thankful to you--aside for a moment)very clearly tell me that you donot as yet look at EW part of my post(may be considering them beyond you)and remain limited to the "conclusion" part taking them as hints of mkt. direction. There is nothing wrong in it(and I know majority of people who visit this blog do the same)but if you can "gain" more from me why not look for deeper understanding---
      Identifying patterns in charts is a must for all market followers and trading(which is a different art altogether) should ideally start much later.
      However what happens is exactly "ulta"-- one starts trading first and technical analysis comes in much later--that too if one "sustains" in mkt for longer duration. Even then I have seen many people shrugging of technical analysis as something that is not reliable---

      "kehne ko bahut kuchh hai"--- but I donot want to be seen as a sermonising person--

      Haan aapke sawaal ka jawaab--
      "My question to you is at what level if can assume that the down trend has begun"----
      downtrend has already begun from 5189 and I have labelled it as Yc which would fan out as a 5 wave form(Impulse or diagonal) with a minimum length of 343 points.
      Two of these waves are in fact over:
      Yc1=5189-5041=148
      Yc2=5041-5141*
      Yc3 to begin---

      It was all mentioned in my post---

      :-)

      Delete
  9. Dear Raghu,

    A perfect reply and I will take it seriously and begin to have deeper understanding.

    Point to my other question noted.

    You are a great teacher of rare calibre to say the least. Keep leading me to light as I too begin to put my efforts

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete

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