Yesterday I had written:
Q
Level in focus is 5151
Breaching it would mean low has been formed at 4770.
Otherwise Probability of retesting this low is very much alive.
UnQ
And therefore I am going along with my Count:
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There is a bit of alarm that has crept in above Count.
As we are counting:
YbA=4789-5020=231
YbB=5020-4770=250
YbC=4770-5145=375(162% of YbA)
Some of my friends have pointed out that in an Expanded Flat(where B does more than 100% of A) C can do a maximum of 1.618 times of A. Though there are few who say C can do even 262% of A in an Exp Flat ,I believe in Frost & Prechter's word who have mentioned on P89,who mention 165% of A as the limit for C in an Expanded Flat.
An alternate Count has been proposed which I discussed on Sunday but I am not putting that up here.
My guideline is---Market is supreme and may or may not follow a guideline, but we have to stick to those during our analysis.
9.40 AM
Yesterday's low of 5095 should be the safest level on breach of which shorts should breathe easy. Till that happens,probability of the last leg buying more time as a diagonal and giving a few spurts upwards can not be ruled out.
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10.48 AM
Have fun with lines---they tell a lot--
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11.56 AM
The channel holds(again):
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12.07 PM
And look at the point of first support
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12.45 PM
I am not ignoring following Probability as yet:
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2.10 PM
Support holding.
Part booking of profits on shorts advised
And it goes too--- meaning one-way down till EOD
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2.45 PM
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EOD
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Q
Level in focus is 5151
Breaching it would mean low has been formed at 4770.
Otherwise Probability of retesting this low is very much alive.
UnQ
And therefore I am going along with my Count:
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
.png)
As we are counting:
YbA=4789-5020=231
YbB=5020-4770=250
YbC=4770-5145=375(162% of YbA)
Some of my friends have pointed out that in an Expanded Flat(where B does more than 100% of A) C can do a maximum of 1.618 times of A. Though there are few who say C can do even 262% of A in an Exp Flat ,I believe in Frost & Prechter's word who have mentioned on P89,who mention 165% of A as the limit for C in an Expanded Flat.
An alternate Count has been proposed which I discussed on Sunday but I am not putting that up here.
My guideline is---Market is supreme and may or may not follow a guideline, but we have to stick to those during our analysis.
9.40 AM
Yesterday's low of 5095 should be the safest level on breach of which shorts should breathe easy. Till that happens,probability of the last leg buying more time as a diagonal and giving a few spurts upwards can not be ruled out.
.png)
.png)
Have fun with lines---they tell a lot--
.png)
The channel holds(again):
.png)
And look at the point of first support
.png)
I am not ignoring following Probability as yet:
.png)
Support holding.
Part booking of profits on shorts advised
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.png)
Closed decisively below 5HrLowema
Closed decisively below Hourly support line
Closed below 5Day SMA
Closed below four month old trendline on daily charts giving form to Evening Star --(am I going too far?)
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Dear Raghu
ReplyDeleteVery good morning.
Very clearly explained.
Let me have my SL clear before taking a trade.
Thanks for your selfless guidance and great follow up
Have a great day
guruji,
ReplyDeleteon looking at the alternate count on sunday i see targets of 6000-6500-7000 on nifty in few months. if 5151 cross we straight go
to that count no other possiblity??
guruji,
pls add e mail subscription to ur blog(both blogs) if possible , (whenever time permits). naagi ji blog has it so he may be able to do it instantaneously for u..
Dear Raghu,
ReplyDeleteQ
Level in focus is 5151
Breaching it would mean low has been formed at 4770.
Otherwise Probability of retesting this low is very much alive.
UnQ
Your levels of 5151 still is in place. Can I say the probability of the above is more when the 5060 levels breached on a EOD basis.
Is this the right way to understand. It is purely for academic interest.
Thanks
As we take high-low for our EW counts---EOD prices have no relevance(though for other TAs they are quie relevant.
Deletewrt the quote mentioned by you,5060 is too shallow to be relevant.We can go upto 80% of (4770-5145=375)i.e 4845 even as per alternate Count wherein 4770 has been taken as the low and 4770-5145 as the Ist wave of the upmove---
Dear Raghu
ReplyDeleteThanks for sharing.Getting more clarity after seeing your reply
Dear Raghu
ReplyDeleteI only feel,Just as I respect you the most,Market respects your counts very well.
Very helpful for a novice like me to absorb the market moves.
Kudos to you.
Though feelings among individuals are mutual---
Deletethe same can not be said about market and its participants.
While I do respect market moves to the fullest,the same cannot be said about it being respectful to my counts---
May be your love for me is coloring your views here.
Dear Raghu,
DeleteThough I agree broadly.
One thing you have to agree, the efforts taken by you to refer Frost & Prechter manual cannot be taken lightly by anybody. The point I want to say,is at that point of time you could have given up that count. Great Job sir. I cannot express it better.
Though we cannot argue with the markets as you rightly said, Time will say sir, whether I have a coloured view or not.
Please accept my sincere sentiments, because it has made me look at the market differently and also be flexible
Thanks once again
You needn't say more Sir. A picture depicts a 1000 words;)
ReplyDeleteHats off to you raghu ji, really appreciate your posts and how simply u have made things for us to understand :-)
ReplyDelete