Trading Nifty on 04-06-2012

Two short-listed Probabilities were:


which one would be followed would depend upon how deep we open today.
All Important point is 4788.35
A tick below it would mean Probability 1 is getting followed.
And our labels would become:
Ya=5342-4789=553
Yb=4789-5020=231
Yc=5020--downwards as a 5 wave form(Impulse or Diagonal)
Minimum target 0.62*Ya=0.62*553=343=4677
The first subwave of Yc in play,lets call it Yc1:
(i)=5020-4945=75
(ii)=4945-4982=37
(iii)=4982 downwards in play
4982-4884=98
4884-4947=63
4947- if goes down by 1.62x98=4789 then these labels would get confirmed.

If ,however, we donot tick below 4788.35 then Probability 2 would also remain in play(details of it were discussed in yesterday's EOD post)


10.00AM

10.40 AM
Whether only the gap gets filled at 4832 (and it turns back as shown in orange) or goes on to test the trendline--- ???

2.00PM
TSL for longs=4814.7
2.30 PM
Gap filled but donot hurry to create shorts.
Hour TA indicates that chances of going past 4882 are there.
keep TSL at 4816.5 now

2.55 PM
TSL for longs now at 4826.35.
If we breach 4851,we are definitely on to cross 4885.
(i)=4770-4808=38
(ii)=4808-4789
(iii)=4789- upwards if goes above 38x1.62=61=4850 then -----

3.20 PM
Squaring off all my longs


Expect s dip tomorrow where again longs can be created.

EOD
Just like April,I expect the June series to do oscillations in the range of 4750-4950.
The first Impulse from 5020 downwards looks over to me at 4770(though this confirmation would come only by a tick above 4883.7
Currently we are retracing this Impulse=5020-4770=250
50% means 4895
This retracement ,call it abc,is in its a=4770-4858*=88
b downwards may bring it to 4805 and then c upwards is likely to take it to 4895.


Raghu