Hanumanji

Hanumanji
Jai Hanuman Gyan Gun Sagar Jai Kapeesh Tihu Lok Ujaagar Ram Doot Atulita Baladhaama Anjani Putra Pavanasuta Naama

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Trading Nifty on 06-06-2012

So we are on the correct track





All important threshold is 4881.65.
A tick above and our labels would be:
a=4770-4898=128
b=4898-4848=50
c=4848 upwards by minimum 0.62*a=80=4928

And below 4881.65 it would be all b territory and Nifty can slide upto 4795 also. A tick below 4830 would be the first signal of this deep retracement by b.

8.15 AM
Global markets are indicating positive beginning. May be we shall open above our threshold of 4881.65
However one word of caution.
As a=4770-4898=128 was quite fast & furious, c=4848 upwards is likely to fan out as a diagonal.
So from 4905-4910 zone ,we may drop to 4865-4870 and then rise again to 4930, drop to 4885-4890 and rise to 4950. 5 min TA charts would be vital guide for today's choppy  move--

9.45 AM
Against my expectations of choppiness while moving up,it has rushed to breach the Target1=4928.
I have booked profit on my longs and would be initiating shorts as we move closer to 4950.
10.15 AM
Though I feel that it would test 4946,still 4909 is an important threshold now.
A tick below it would be the first indication that top has been made and it would be confirmed by a tick below day's low. 
10.55 AM
Target 2=4946 also met.
Would initiate my first short on a tick below 4936

12.55 PM
Now is the time to short with SL at day's high

1.25 PM
SL hit.
Now wait for breach of 4947 to go short again

1.55 PM
2.15 PM
Shorting again with SL at 5020.2
Risk-reward tremendous.
2.45 PM
Will this trendline on daily charts stop it?
3.20 PM
Has the trendline managed to stop it?
Has 5020 escaped breach?
Should I hold my shorts?
The answer to last one is--YES--
other answers--I am keeping my fingures crossed.
SL for shorts remains at 5020.2
3.29 Pm

Previous hour's low broken and that gives me hope

EOD
Nothing more to add.
If 5020 holds tomorrow we shall be on with our journey to sub 4770 giving us fabulous gains.
If we open with a gap-up above 5020, we book our minimal losses and Count again.

Raghu
Posted by at

26 comments:

  1. Sandip PalJune 6, 2012 at 9:01 AM

    Thanks for your efforts and it's been really good learning experience here.

    ReplyDelete
  2. ManishJune 6, 2012 at 9:04 AM

    Namaster Guruji

    Wonderful insights from you.

    Thanks and Regards Always!

    ReplyDelete
  3. prakashbkcJune 6, 2012 at 9:43 AM

    Raghu sir ,
    Nifty now at 4928 so chance of going back to 4890 isless or going directly to 4955 increases?

    ReplyDelete
  4. BytesJune 6, 2012 at 10:29 AM

    Would it be possible to label the highs and lows in the charts ?
    Just a thought , it would help.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. RaghuvanshiJune 6, 2012 at 10:33 AM

      It has been written in morning:

      a=4770-4898=128
      b=4898-4848=50
      c=4848 upwards by minimum 0.62*a=80=4928

      Delete
    2. rangaJune 6, 2012 at 11:00 AM

      Raghu Sir

      I am watching your post for the past few days and excellent analysis.. I am currently learning EW ..
      One query.. I Shorted around 4910 levels today and expecting that it may not go up more than 4930.. But the market moved up very fast.. I saw your posting on shorting..What is the stop loss ..

      Delete
    3. RaghuvanshiJune 6, 2012 at 11:09 AM

      In fact I should be asking you as to what was your stop loss when you initiated shorts at 4910??
      I would be initiating shorts only below 4936.
      Why,because if you see one minute charts,it is the previous low from which day's high of 4946+ has been made.
      And shorts thus initiated would have day's high as Stop-loss.
      But you must answer my query as well.

      Delete
    4. rangaJune 6, 2012 at 11:16 AM

      Yes, I made a mistake.. Shorted in the Opening itself ..without much logic..

      Delete
    5. RaghuvanshiJune 6, 2012 at 11:30 AM

      Kudos Rangaji !!!
      you have the inner strength to accept your mistake.This market very often prompts knee-jerk reactions--and it takes months to get proper "tempering".
      One small piece of advice:
      You would have noticed that I mentioned that I closed my longs at 492 but didnot initiate shorts there.
      Why?
      Because the minimum level of upmove,4928 in current case,prompted me to book profit.
      But when to initiate trade--i.e enter shorts--- only when some x-over or immediate low is breached as that is the first indication of reversal.
      We may miss the top--but would not enter a wrong bus in hurry---
      :-)

      Delete
    6. rangaJune 6, 2012 at 11:41 AM

      Thanks..No regrets to accept my mistake.. Of course you are providing free guidance.If someone is better then you, just accept the defeat :-) .. Whatever it may be or whoever it maybe..

      Can you explain the EW with current movement. I understand that your target-2 is also achieved..Is there any C-Wave reversal possible ( Ref :: c=4848 upwards is likely to fan out as a diagonal.)

      Delete
    7. RaghuvanshiJune 6, 2012 at 11:45 AM

      Diagonal possibility was ruled out when the minimum 4828 was reached in swift upmove.
      Now we are waiting for completion of c which is less likely to go above 4970(80% of 5020-4770),though theoretically it can go upto 5020

      Delete
    8. rangaJune 6, 2012 at 11:58 AM

      Guruji ( I would like to call the same way as others are calling . Hope no issues.)

      Thanks a lot for your reply.

      Delete
  5. ManishJune 6, 2012 at 11:14 AM

    Yes Ranga ji

    Please answer.

    This is learning place.

    ReplyDelete
  6. ManishJune 6, 2012 at 11:28 AM

    Guruji

    Have initiated few shorts with SL of Day's high at 4947.

    Regards Always !!!

    ReplyDelete
  7. ManishJune 6, 2012 at 11:35 AM

    SL Hit

    Risk reward was favorable so took the risk

    ReplyDelete
  8. BalaJune 6, 2012 at 11:45 AM

    Gurudev, me too shorted at 4953 just now with stoploss of 4960. I will go for more shorts below 4936 as u suggested.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. RaghuvanshiJune 6, 2012 at 11:53 AM

      Balma sipahiya hai re teri damboook se darr laage---
      Keep the SL at 4971

      Delete
    2. BalaJune 6, 2012 at 11:58 AM

      Thank you sir for caution,i will do that.

      Delete
    3. BalaJune 6, 2012 at 1:23 PM

      I exited sir at 4971.

      Delete
  9. prakashbkcJune 6, 2012 at 11:47 AM

    Raghu sir,
    Should wait for tick below 4940 last rise point initiate short?

    ReplyDelete
  10. ManishJune 6, 2012 at 11:47 AM

    Will wait for EW,momentum and the trendlines to be aligned sir

    ReplyDelete
  11. chauhanJune 6, 2012 at 1:08 PM

    wonderfull, short with days high SL

    ReplyDelete
  12. ManishJune 6, 2012 at 1:25 PM

    Guruji

    Aaj to poora retrace hokar hi maanega.

    FII bhi apna likha padh rahe hain.

    ReplyDelete
  13. chauhanJune 6, 2012 at 1:36 PM

    sl trigeered, their is alternative count

    ReplyDelete
  14. madamuniramaiahJune 6, 2012 at 2:38 PM

    Dear sir
    Whichway to go home with longs OR with shorts?

    ReplyDelete

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