I had "projected" a very basic 5 wave Impulse Yc from 5190 downwards yesterday:
Q
Yc1=5190-5041=149
Yc2=5041-5133(62% retraced)
Yc3=5133-4890(162% of Yc1)
Yc4=4890-4982(38% of Yc3 retraced)
Yc5=4982-4833(=Yc1)
UnQ
And I feel Yc2 ended yesterday and Yc3 started. Should take us to sub-4900 levels but would that happen within this expiry? I have doubts because it has been noticed that market moves get limited to eat premia on options so put buying,if any,should be done for July series--
Length of Yc3 from 5141 downwards is going to decide if Yc would play out as an Impulse or Diagonal. Going by the observation of market moves near expiry(tight range) during last two months and channel shown above,we may not see Yc3 getting extended. We would be seeing sub 5000 levels for sure during this expiry but for sub-4900 we may have to wait for July series
9.37 AM
Make yourself aware of nearest supports & resistances by drawing channels & trendlines on 5 min chart:
10.08 AM
Weakness gets confirmed on Hour charts as well as we get first Hourly close below 5 HrLow EMA and MACD & Stoch show negative x-overs
10.40AM
Lets apply some EW to the downmove so far:
First sub-subwave fanned out as a diagonal of 46 points.
A retracement of 30 points to 5124 is possible and then a fall of 75 points.
So EOD may show us a range of 5125-5050 for today:
11.42 AM
Ideally speaking,another spurt above 5123 is likely.
Ideal SL fo Intraday shorts should be 5134
12.18 PM
Breach of TL shows increasing weakness.
If ticks below 5097 that would confirm that high for the day has been made
1.03 PM
Some channels & trendlines again:
1.21PM
2.13 PM
Till this channel survives:
2.25 PM
The spurt above 5123,awaited since morning, arrived at most unexpected hour--
caution advised
2.35 PM
Phew--- Thank God!!!
My SL at 5112 saved me.
This huge spurt was enexpected---
Prefer to set aside instead of initiating trade as knee-jerk reaction--
2.50 PM
Short at 5142 with SL at day's high
Q
Yc1=5190-5041=149
Yc2=5041-5133(62% retraced)
Yc3=5133-4890(162% of Yc1)
Yc4=4890-4982(38% of Yc3 retraced)
Yc5=4982-4833(=Yc1)
UnQ
And I feel Yc2 ended yesterday and Yc3 started. Should take us to sub-4900 levels but would that happen within this expiry? I have doubts because it has been noticed that market moves get limited to eat premia on options so put buying,if any,should be done for July series--
Length of Yc3 from 5141 downwards is going to decide if Yc would play out as an Impulse or Diagonal. Going by the observation of market moves near expiry(tight range) during last two months and channel shown above,we may not see Yc3 getting extended. We would be seeing sub 5000 levels for sure during this expiry but for sub-4900 we may have to wait for July series
9.37 AM
Make yourself aware of nearest supports & resistances by drawing channels & trendlines on 5 min chart:
Weakness gets confirmed on Hour charts as well as we get first Hourly close below 5 HrLow EMA and MACD & Stoch show negative x-overs
Lets apply some EW to the downmove so far:
First sub-subwave fanned out as a diagonal of 46 points.
A retracement of 30 points to 5124 is possible and then a fall of 75 points.
So EOD may show us a range of 5125-5050 for today:
Ideally speaking,another spurt above 5123 is likely.
Ideal SL fo Intraday shorts should be 5134
Breach of TL shows increasing weakness.
If ticks below 5097 that would confirm that high for the day has been made
Some channels & trendlines again:
Till this channel survives:
The spurt above 5123,awaited since morning, arrived at most unexpected hour--
2.35 PM
Phew--- Thank God!!!
My SL at 5112 saved me.
Prefer to set aside instead of initiating trade as knee-jerk reaction--
2.50 PM
Short at 5142 with SL at day's high
can we get sub 5000
ReplyDeleterespected sir
ReplyDeletecan we get sub 5000 i have june puts
Ribu,
DeleteYou can see clearly see the EW Count . Only downside possible from 5141 and EW is price analysis.. Timing the market is difficult..
Having said that, if the market moves down below 5100 level and stays there for some time further downside is possible..
Hold your put for couple of days and exit as soon as possible before price decay..
Thanks
thanks a lot for yur valuable guidance
ReplyDeleteribu
dear sir
ReplyDeletefiis do not give time to retail traders to catch trade as there is alogo trading and nifty may fall 100 points withi fraction of second and 5070 may be triggering point
guruji fresh 5 wave frm 5095?? pls check. will it go above 5142
ReplyDeleteGuru ji!
ReplyDeleteAs per your guidance shorted at 5121, with stoploss of 5125:-)
Put the SL at 5132
DeleteGuru ji!
DeleteI covered at 5100, minted 21 points. I will sell again below 5090 only or near 5130 bcoz move is not clear as of now:-)
Happy for your gains !!!
DeleteDonot miss the larger move now.
Short at a tick below 5097.6 with SL at day's high
(ooooops, I should not give trade calls--
:-)
Thank u Guru ji, i will keep in mind but i am looking some upside so took some longs at 5100 with strict stoploss of day's low:-)
DeleteGuru ji!
DeleteBooked loss in longs at 5097, thanx for caution:-)
Sir why a spurt to 5123 ? if 5142-5095 is a 5 wave down then we are done with abc at 5121.95 and now 2nd wave should start.
ReplyDeleteIn abc c remains less than 1.618xa.
DeleteAs shown in the chart above as the (so called) a=13.4 and c did 25+ so that means a 5 wave from 5094-5122 (ideally a);then b down(currently) and then c up again past 5123
These are copy-book labels---
Will keep this in mind , many thanks
Deletesorry , I meant 3rd wave down should start
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteNo that is not possible.
DeleteWhere have you noticed it?
Thanks sir. Please ignore my question. I must have misread your post.
Deleteregards
dear sir
ReplyDeleteif 5050 reached will other wave will take it to 5123
or5080
yc3 --5133-4890 with 5050 reached and 5040 breakdown point
Dear ribu,
DeleteDonot run so fast.
Once let us reach 5050 then I will answer--
And the break-down/break-out points can do reverse also ---
Momentum study & EW pattern have to be in sync for any trade to be initiated--
Raghu ji,
ReplyDelete3rd wave downward strtd ?
Below 5097--yes started--target 5050
DeleteOtherwise,wait for a spurt above 5123
Guru ji!
ReplyDelete5097 broken, if its 3rd then momentum missing in downside. I think its something else, your guidance will clear doubts:-)
grt spurt to 5134 done
ReplyDeletedear sir
ReplyDeletehow these manipluators come on channels as there is no driver for market how come
This volatility,sometimes news driven,sometimes manipulated,is the hallmark of our market.
DeleteAccept it and manage all trades closely--
dear sir,
ReplyDeleteare our counts still valid, or does it warrant a change? will this c do 2.618 of a?
Start of Yc3 (assumed to have started from 5141) has been invalidated.
DeleteYc2 (as the channel shows)in play---
looks like some combination of simpler corrective forms--
Cannot say anything more than this--
Raghu sir,
ReplyDeleteWe just ticked 5164.80 and if we take 80% retracement @5161.68,, doesnt this tell us that retracement is invalidated.. or can it do more?
Theoretically a retracement can go upto 99.9%.
DeletePractically 80% is the maximum it goes--
ok..you keep saying that.. but i keep forgetting :) :) :)
Deletedear sir
ReplyDeletedowntrend will assume after retracement or not keeping in mind macro details
At this point in time,our Counts are very close to getting invalidated(above 5190 they will be).Till then they remain valid.
DeleteMomentum indicaters on daily/hourly charts are not showing any weakness at present--
Sir
ReplyDeleteU are presuming correction to be a five wave
What if it is ABC type where
A 5190 - 5042
B 5042 - 5190-5216
C 5216 - 4950
A corrective can be a 5 wave only as a Triangle---
DeleteOtherwise it is either a 3 wave form or a combination--
Till yesterday I was considering it as a Triangle corrective to Impulse 5190-5041.
What you are writing is a Corrective to Impulse 4770-5190.
Please donot confuse the two.
Impulse 4770-5190 is seen by me as YbC(a part of Yb wherein YbA=4789-5020;YbB=5020-4770:YbC=4770-5190).
Once Yb got over at 5190 after playing out an Exp Flat(4789-5190;(it retraced Ya=5342-4789); Yc started downwards---
This Yc did its first subwave as Yc1=5190-5041=149 and currently Yc2=5041-upwards is in play---
I have been following it for last four months--- an alternative to it would be mentioned if we tick above 5190.
What you have mentioned is an entirely different set of labels which has not been mentioned by me so far--
Guru ji!
ReplyDeleteMaine apna shaq jataya tha ki ye 3rd nahi lagti hai, kyonki downward momentum tha hi nahi. Par mai apko naman karta hoon, kyonki aap kabhi apne failures ko chupate nahi warna yahan aise bhi analysts visit karte hain jo dheere se apne levels badal dete hain stoploss hit ho jaane ke baad:-)
Raghukul reet sada chali aayee,
Deletepraan jaahi par wachan na jaahi----
HHHHHHH
Raghuvanshi aise hi nahi likhta bhai---
Guru ji!
DeleteThats why i salute you sir, Sometimes analysis right or wrong doesnt matter but you are a good human being of high stature. I am thankful to God for showing me this blog:-)