Nifty :EOD 29-6-2012

The most bullish Count doing circles is:

In here wave B is being counted as abc in following manner:

a=5630-5171=459

b=5171-5500=329
c=5500-4770=730 counting c as
(i)=5500-5136=364
(ii)=5136-5378=242
(iii)=5378-4789=589(1.618 of (i)
(iv)=4789-5020=231
(v)=5020-4770=250

Yesterday I wrote

Q

I am not following it as I believe (ii) of c=5136-5378 was an Impulse and cannot be taken as a Corrective. 

UnQ

May be I was  too committed to my WXY count and missed a point here

The c wave from 5500 downwards can be easily counted as:

(i)=5500-5136=364

(ii)=5136-5378 but ending at 5342
(iii)=5342-4789=553[152%of (i) but 221% of (v)]
(iv)=4789-5020=231
(v)=5020-4770=250

And it makes a perfect abc (which I failed to not only see but also acknowledge ---and it was a blunder----- 

I not only accept my blunderous mistake of missing on a bottom but also tender apologies to all my friends who might have missed out this opportunity because of me.

Our labels now stand as follows:

A=4531-5630=1099

B=5630-4770=860

C=4770-  upwards in play

Ideally C=A means a target of 5870

As time taken by A was 45 trading session so C also expected to reach that target in about same time.

Form to be taken by C is either a 5 wave Impulse or Diagonal

Minimum target is 0.62xA=680=5452

On a higher degree( shown in weekly charts) we stand as follows:

Now lets see how this C from 4770 upwards has moved so far---

A word of caution:

If C takes the form of a 5 wave Impulse, reaching 5900 is a probability but if it takes the form of a 3x3x3x3x3 diagonal then it may hardly cross 5630.And this form of C is not clear as yet and therefore betting on Out of Money options  is not advised.

Raghu

Trading Nifty on 29-6-2012

A breach of lower trendlines and rush to sub 5040 is expected by me today:

And to recall EW labels, Yb is over at 5159.9 and Yc started for minimum 343 points(0.62*Ya).
July should see us testing 4800 and ideally going below 4770.

8.40 AM

Positive opening expected and SL as per EW is at 5172.

Prolonged moves in 5100-5200 range( more than 15 days now) have made it difficult to label waves in this tight range and ,therefore, better to rely on channels --- shown below is the channel for upmove from 5095 

And on a higher degree:

As I have some household errands to attend to, intraday updates may not be possible today--

Have a nice trading day ahead--

9.21 AM

WXY count from 5629 downwards has fallen(invalid now) and to me the best Count is what I had mention in my reply to Jeevan's post in the morning:

Q

And let me add here,above 5202 my WXY labels become invalid and then I would be also be labeling the downmove 5629- onwards as ABC but not in the abovementioned manner. My labels would be:

(i)=5500-5136=364
(ii)=5136-5378 but ending at 5342
(iii)=5342-4789=553 extended vis-a-vis (v)
(iv)=4789-5020=231
(v)=5020-4770=250

As a Corrective cannot be a 5 wave form,this downmove 5629-4770 can be termed only as A with B doing 4770 upwards--

UnQ

This B is a zig-zag abc which I would try to configure at EOD.

Targetwise 61.8% retracement of A=5629-4770=859 would mean 5302 

50% retracement would mean 5200

Though the move within channel is looking like:

a=4770-5124=354

b=5124-5017=107

c=5017- upwards minimum 0.62*a=5236 

Trading Nifty on 28-6-2012

Settlement Day--- and going by the grind that we were in during last few days,today is also not likely to be much different in terms of range I believe a range of 5090-5160 would prevail during the day.

My preferred Count YbC as an Impulse with ED says that we would not go above 5172   and , therefore, a Stop-loss for shorts at 5172 is necessary.
And if the Count lives, Yc with a minimum target of  0.62* Ya(=5342-4789=553) should take us down to 4800 level again in July series.

For Intra-day trades today, following trendlines would be my guiding lights--- lets see which one becomes a support and which acts as a resistance:

10.20 AM

11.45 AM
One Minute chart:

12.15 PM

1.07PM
Trendline again acted as support and weakness on 5 min charts was not transmitted to Hour charts

And thus the grind continues--

1.25 PM
Now the Hourly shows x-over as well:

Stop-loss at day's high is a must.

Trading Nifty on 27-06-2012

The last upwave from 5041 has been quite complex,and as it is still developing,any final word on its form cannot be said.
However the EW insect that I am, I could not desist myself from listing following probability:
First a larger picture,from 4770 upwards:

And now a move from 5041 upwards:

This Probability pinpoints that this upmove would not go above 5172
And calls for a trade set-up to short above 5169.9 with a Stop-loss at 5172.
Funny?
Lets see----

10.12 AM
As in 5 min charts,MACD ( 34,5) has shown x-over so going short with SL at 5172

1.25 PM
Will my morning readings hold?
Looks very likely as last leg of upmove(shown in charts below)

1.41 PM
will the last wave fail--- causing truncation and fast fall?

1.53 PM
Can still surprise by going above day's high:

So must book part profits

2.00PM
Now short BINDAAS !!!

2.20 PM
I say short bindaas and it goes up---
naraaz hai kya?

2.48 PM
See what is holding us:

3.05 PM
Lets try to locate next resistance and supports:

EOD:

Another day of grinding in shortest daily range of 30 points---
On such days I shift to one minute chart(did you notice?).
Candles are bigger and even the smallest waves can be counted---keeps me busy and doesnot allow me to get angry and quarrel with my tools---

The two trendlines shown in following chart would set the course tomorrow.

My bet is for a gap down opening below the lower trendline--closer to 5100 and then a grind in 5090-5120 range----

Raghu

Trading Nifty on 26-06-2012

One very basic EW question:
When to say that a 5 wave Impulse is over?
Idealmost answer is--- the channel would get broken and the retracement to 5 wave Impulse would go below subwave (iv) of Impulse in following manner:

However there may be a situation where channel gets broken,but subwave (iv) low is not breached, then how do we say that the Impulse is over?
Easiest answer to this is--- notice the length of (v),if it goes above the length of 1.62*(i) then also one can say that Impulse is over as two of the subwaves in Impulse can not be extended.

Thus we have three main criteria to pinpoint end of an Impulse:
1.Channel break;
2.Low of subwave (iv) getting breached;
3.Subwave labelled (v) goes above 1.62 of (i) to declare that it has been wrongly labelled and should be counted as subwave (i) of next Impulse instead of counting it as subwave (v) of first Impulse.

There may be times when (v) becomes complex and breaks the channel but unless it goes below the low of (iv) OR attains a length greater than 1.62*(i),it can not be said to be over.

Now ,with these understandings, let me take up the current Impulse from 4770 upwards:

So the first target for the downmove started today should be sub-5017.
And second target should be sub-4994.

There are however a few supports before these targets,indicated in charts below:

And of course,SL for shorts should be at 5202(corresponding to 1.62*128 from 4994)
If (iv) is taken at 5017,then stop-loss becomes 5224.

Raghu


PS: Whenever I write something like this,I can not help recalling my Guru WW @Wave Rider with whom I may have many differences in wave-labels but to whom I would always remain indebted--

8.40 AM
These are a few lines that I have drawn today as supports.
If  5041 holds today also,then I would not be surprised by an expiry at 5200 level---

10.30 AM

This channel is likely to be breached on the upside (to announce end of Impulse).
If it doesnot happen(meaning downward momentum is too strong)then use brekin down of day's low for shorting with SL at day's high


11.08 AM
Ideally breakdown of black channel or cross-over in MACD should be used for shoerting

An attempt to catch the top at top of black channel can be made but that may prove futile also

Ist condition of red-channel break on the upside done.
That confirms that at 5103 one Impulse got over(5195-5103=92).
From 5103 upwards ,a retracement is in play-- bound by black channel.

I hope this much of guidance is sufficient.
Let me get busy with my trades now---
:-)

1.43 PM
The channel should hold this 3x3x3 retracement:

3.04 PM

3.22 PM
Foxy waves have taken a turn.
sw2,supposed to be over at 5135,seems to have chosen to play an irregular flat:

This sw2.c is quite capable of going upto 5145.
Take positions accordingly.
sw3 has to wait till then----

EOD:
Sometimes,close & correct tracking of waves also does not prove much fruitful.
sw2a=5102-5134=32
sw2b=5134-5095=39(122%)
sw2c in play and that keeps probability of testing 5145 alive.

Trading Nifty on 25-6-2012

9.27 AM:
To me 5180+ was the best shorting opprtunity with SL at 5190:
Best risk reward.

10.00AM
Back from the brink?
Conservatives should short only on orange-channel break

10.30 AM
5189.5 breached.
Would be on sidelines till EOD to confirm the emerging pattern.

EOD

As I had mentioned in my previous posts,price is moving in a channel for last two weeks:

Whether a combo of corrective forms or anything else would become clear later

There are times when Ew labels are not very clear and during these times channels in Hour and 5 min charts become good friends of traders alongwith MACD e.g today following channels in 5 min chart were very useful:

One must keep working with charts and try to develop trade set-ups with the help of channels as shown above.

Raghu

An Interesting Take

Blame the Guru
A beginner entering the markets soon finds himself surrounded by a colorful
crowd of gurus—experts who sell trading advice. Most charge fees,
but some give advice for free to drum up business for their brokerage
firms. Gurus publish newsletters, are quoted in the media, and many
would kill to get on TV. Masses are hungry for clarity, and gurus are
there to feed that hunger. Most are failed traders, but being a guru is not
that easy. Their mortality rate is high, and few stay around for more than
two years. The novelty wears off, customers do not renew subscriptions,
and a guru finds it easier to earn a living selling aluminum siding than
drawing trendlines. My chapter on the guru business in Trading for a
Living drew more howls and threats than any other in that book.
MIND—THE DISCIPLINED TRADER 51
Traders go through three stages in their attitudes towards gurus. In
the beginning, they drink in their advice, expecting to make money
from it. At the second stage, traders start avoiding gurus like the
plague, viewing them as distractions from their own decision-making
process. Finally, some successful traders start paying attention to a few
gurus who alert them to new opportunities.
Some losing traders go looking for a trainer, a teacher, or a therapist.
Very few people are experts in both psychology and trading. I’ve met
several gurus who couldn’t trade their way out of a paper bag but
claimed that their alleged expertise in psychology qualified them to
train traders. Stop for a moment and compare this to sex therapy. If I
had a sexual problem, I might see a psychiatrist, a psychologist, a sex
therapist, or even a pastoral counselor, but I would never go to a
Catholic priest, even if I were Catholic. That priest has no practical
knowledge of the problem—and if he does, you want to run, not walk
away. A teacher who does not trade is highly suspect.
Traders go through several stages in their attitudes towards tips.
Beginners love them, those who are more serious insist on doing their
own homework, while advanced traders may listen to tips but always
drop them into their own trading systems to see whether that advice
will hold up. Whenever I hear a trading tip, I run it through my own
computerized screens. The decision to buy, go short, or stand aside is
mine alone, with an average yield of one tip accepted out of every 20
heard. Tips draw my attention to opportunities I might have overlooked,
but there are no shortcuts to sweating your own trades.
A greenhorn who has gotten burned may ask for a guru’s track
record. Years ago I used to publish a newsletter and noticed how frighteningly
easy it was for gurus to massage and slant their records, even
if they were tracked by independent rating services.
I’ve never met a trader who took all the recommendations of his
guru, even if he paid him a lot of money. If a guru has 200 subscribers,
they’ll choose different recommendations, trade them differently, and
most will lose money, each in his own way. There is a rule in the advisory
business: “If you make forecasts for a living, make a lot of them.”
Gurus offer convenient excuses to sleepwalking traders who need a
scapegoat for their losses.
Whether or not you listen to a guru, you’re 100% responsible for the
outcome of your trades. The next time you get a hot tip, drop it into
your trading system to see whether it gives you a buy or sell signal.
You are responsible for the consequences of taking or rejecting advice.

Dr. Alexander Elder

Trading Nifty on 22-06-2012

Are we back from the brink?
Only if the channel gets broken on the downside.

Even if it does, June series would be remembered by me for its stubborn ability to trade at top range of 5100-5190 for almost ten days.
And when it appeared to have wriggled out of 50DMA and 4 month old descending trendline,would we fall back in the descending channel and test its nadir again-- or this "throw-over" is an indication that even if we fall back in the descending channel,we would not be testing its nadir---my Count favors the second option and I feel too tired to be enthused--- (number of stop-losses hit on shorts,lack of conviction to go long above 5100 and premia sucked from remaining PEs should take the responsibility for it)
Let's take each wave as it comes:

9.35 AM
Channel survives--yet again: 

10.00AM
Ribu says:
"dear sir
when manipulation is there do yu think our technicals matter how yu justify yesterday rise
this is omnious sign and we can crash as all have become postive"

It is not my job to "convert" non-believers into followers.

Technicals do not guarantee profits --- nor do I !!!

EW patterns are easy to explain once the wave is over---

regarding yesterday's move,yes it has a valid EW pattern(though I doubt Ribu would understand):

12.05 PM

12.16PM

Finally---channel breaks

Now look for next support:

1.07 PM

1.30 PM
Too much volatility making it difficult to decipher pattern--


2.45 PM

3.22 PM

Best trade would be to short between 5160-65 with SL at 5190


EOD:


The Yc2 channel survives one more day---