Pre-open
As per my Preferred Counts,following labels are being followed:
Y.a=5459-5298=161
Y.b=5298-5392
Y.c=5392-5266*=126 (78.2*)
And this Y.c can do upto 1.617*Y.a=260=5132 so what is the likely target for it ?
To answer that,lets go inside it,remembering that it has to take form of either a 5 wave Impulse or a 5 wave diagonal:
Most "delicate" thing about the above labels is length of (v)=46 which makes (iii)=79 an extended subwave. If (v) goes down further to attain a length of 50(i.e. below 5262),these labels would become invalid as (iii) would no longer remain 1.62*(v).
So based on above counts,we can remain long with SL at 5262
And what if we go below 5262?
In the scenario of opening or going below 5262,following labels should be used:
So the opening or a tick below 5262 should be used to initiate short position with a minimum target of 5184 and Stop-loss at 5213.
And do I need mentioning that 200DMA is at 5166?
See how simple---HHHH
How have we opened?
9.45 AM
A tick above 5324 and downmove over.
Go long at all dips now--
1045 AM
While still trying to figure out how Y.c has done,the following channel for Y would prove useful.
This is the most common channel for a zig-zag abc which is made by joining the beginning of a with end of b and extending it. And then a parallel line is drawn from the end of a (to seek probable target for c.
11.30 AM
And within this W5 so far:
So stop-loss for longs is 5283
And target is 5465(minimum).
1.00PM
The form that can be taken by W5 for current upmove shall be confirmed later.One of the probabilities is:
or is it WXY-X-again with Z to follow?
2.30 PM
The question remains the same:
Is it still W4 as WXY-X(5223-5382)-Z in play(downwards)
or
Is it W5 playing as 3x3x3x3x3 diagonal ?
Shall the closing provide us the answer?
Simplest of benchmark is this trend-line and 5 Hr.ema.
Closing below them would be a vote for WXYXZ:
And let me add the most bearish Probability as well:
3.10 PM
So the probability of W5 having begun from 5223 upwards is OUT now.( as we have gone below 5223)
And is this channel our guide now?
EOD:
The last two charts above would become my guiding lights now---
guruji
ReplyDeleteya fir 5300 sl bhi chalega
Chalane ko to kuchh bhi chala lo----
DeleteWithin W5,(iii) in progress.
Within (iii):
sw1=5283-5382=99
sw2 not to retrace more than 80% means 5300 would be a good stop loss as well---
ok guruji, if 5223 onwards developing as diagonal tab nahi chalega
ReplyDeleteHHHHHHHH yes---we must know the degree of wave that we are playing--- and use a SL for that degree---
DeleteAnd remember W1 was only 269.
DeleteSo minimum for W5 is 0.62*269 that means only upto 5390
But can W5 be over within a day?
DeleteHHHHHHHHH-- so many things to be borne in mind---
nai guruji,
Deleteit shud rise to five a good -ve div in 5 min atleast
oh at 5390 it will give a -ve div in 5 min.
ReplyDeleteDear Raghu ji,
ReplyDeletePranam.
It is really a very much appreciated post and all your efforts to educate people and the most admirable is the way you thinking all probabilities and posting all your ideas while trading. I have no words to say......we can not imagine..
Good luck and God bless you.
Many Regards.
Jeevan.
6/3/2012/1130